20210816-USDA-USDA_Wheat_Outlook_2021.08.16_14页_434kb

Wheat Outlook Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the global and domestic wheat market outlook for the 2021/22 marketing year, highlighting the impact of weather conditions on production, exports, and prices.

Global Wheat Production and Outlook

• Global Production: Forecasted at 776.9 million metric tons (MT), down 15.5 million MT from the previous month.
• Major Contributors to the Decline: Russia and Canada account for the majority of the reduction, with Russia down 12.5 million MT and Canada down 7.5 million MT.
• Offsetting Increases: Ukraine, Australia, and the European Union (EU) have seen increases in production, collectively adding 4.9 million MT to global output.
• Key Factors: Drought conditions in the Northern and Western U.S., and Russia, have significantly reduced yields and production for several wheat classes, particularly hard red spring (HRS), white, and durum.

U.S. Wheat Production and Outlook

• Total Production: Revised down to 46.18 million MT, a decrease of 1.34 million MT from the previous month.
• By Class:
  • Hard Red Winter (HRW): Projected at 777 million bushels, down 3% from July, but up 18% from the previous year.
  • Soft Red Winter (SRW): Forecast at 366 million bushels, up 1% from July.
  • White Wheat: Reduced by 8% to 214 million bushels, with production at the lowest level since 1974/75.
  • Durum: Forecast at 34.7 million bushels, down 7% from July and half of the previous year's crop.
  • Hard Red Spring (HRS): Nearly unchanged from July at 305 million bushels, but down 42% from the previous year.
• Exports: All-wheat exports remain unchanged at 875 million bushels, but individual classes show significant changes. White wheat exports are down 10 million bushels, while SRW and HRS are up by 5 million bushels each.
• Domestic Use: Total domestic use is down 11 million bushels from the previous month. Food use is reduced by 1 million bushels, with adjustments made to each class.
• Ending Stocks: Projected at 627 million bushels, down 38 million from July, marking the lowest level in 8 years.
• Season-Average Farm Price (SAFP): Increased to $6.70 per bushel, up $0.10 from the previous month, due to tighter supplies and rising prices.

Global Wheat Trade and Outlook

• Global Exports: Reduced this month due to tighter supplies, with the largest declines in Canada and Russia.
• Major Exporters:
  • United States: Exports unchanged at 24,500 thousand metric tons (MT), despite a smaller crop.
  • Canada: Exports down to 17,500 MT, a reduction of 5,500 MT.
  • Russia: Exports down to 35,000 MT, a reduction of 5,000 MT.
  • Ukraine, Australia, and EU: Exports increased due to larger supplies and reduced competition.
• Imports: Many countries are projected to see reduced imports, reflecting tighter global supplies and higher export prices. Some countries, like Brazil and India, are expected to see increased imports due to surplus supplies.
• Turkey: Exports are reduced to 6.0 million MT due to tight domestic supplies and reduced re-exports.
• India: Exports are forecast to increase by 300,000 MT, as it has abundant supplies and is expected to be competitive in nearby markets.

Global Wheat Stocks

• Global Ending Stocks: Projected at 279.0 million MT, the lowest in five years.
• Major Exporters' Stocks: Declined by 8.3 million MT to 50.2 million MT, the tightest level since 2007/08.
• U.S. Stocks: Revised down to the lowest level in 8 years.
• Russia: Stocks down 5.1 million MT, slightly from the previous year.
• Canada: Stocks at the lowest on record.
• Importing Countries: Some are expected to carry lower stock levels, with potential delays in purchases and use of existing inventories later in the year.

Drought Impact

• U.S. Drought: Affects the Northern and Western regions, leading to reduced production and exports for HRS, white, and durum.
• Russia Drought: Affects winter wheat production, with 'ice crusting' leading to significant yield losses.
• Canada Drought: Leads to reduced yields and production, particularly for durum and spring wheat.
• Impact on High-Protein Wheat: Both the U.S. and Canada face tight supplies of high-protein wheat due to drought conditions.

Key Projections and Trends

• Australia: Despite a slight decrease in production, it remains a major exporter with strong demand from Asian markets.
• Ukraine: Forecasted to have record production and yields due to optimal conditions.
• EU: Increased production by 0.4 million MT, with some countries like France and Romania showing positive revisions.
• Global Prices: Expected to rise due to tighter supplies and reduced production in key exporting countries.
• Consumption: Global wheat consumption is projected lower at 786.7 million MT, mainly due to reduced feed and residual use in Russia and Canada.

Summary of Major Changes

Conclusion

The 2021/22 wheat outlook is marked by a significant decline in global production, primarily due to drought conditions in key exporting regions like the U.S., Russia, and Canada. This has led to tighter supplies and higher prices, with exports and imports showing mixed trends. While some regions like Ukraine and Australia have seen increases in production, the overall global supply remains constrained, affecting trade dynamics and market prices.