20181113-USDA-Oil_Crops_Outlook_16页_240kb

Outlook Summary: Oil Crops and Related Markets

Core Content

The Situation and Outlook Report by the Economic Research Service (ERS) provides an analysis of the U.S. soybean, peanut, and related oil crop markets for the 2018/19 season. It outlines the production forecasts, export trends, domestic demand, and market conditions affecting these crops. The report also touches on global production and trade dynamics for soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, and other oil crops like sunflowerseed and canola.

Main Points

U.S. Soybean Outlook

• Production Forecast:

  • U.S. soybean production for 2018/19 is forecasted at 4.6 billion bushels, a decrease of 90 million bushels from the previous estimate.
  • The decline is due to a reduction in the national average yield from 53.1 to 52.1 bushels per acre.
  • Despite the lower production, the U.S. soybean crop is still 189 million bushels above last year's former record.

• Export Outlook:

  • U.S. soybean exports for 2018/19 are forecasted at 1.9 billion bushels, a decrease of 160 million bushels from the previous forecast.
  • The drop in export sales to China, the top global import market, has significantly impacted the forecast.
  • U.S. export sales to China fell by 94% compared to the previous year, and the year-to-year sales deficit is equivalent to 593 million bushels.
  • Exports to other countries, such as the EU, Mexico, Argentina, and Egypt, have increased, but not enough to offset the loss to China.

• Domestic Crush:

  • Domestic soybean crush is forecasted to increase to 2.08 billion bushels, up 10 million bushels from the previous month.
  • This increase is supported by robust export sales of soybean meal.

• Ending Stocks:

  • Season-ending soybean stocks are forecasted to rise to 955 million bushels from 885 million bushels last month.
  • The increase is attributed to the decline in exports and higher domestic crush.

• Price Forecast:

  • USDA narrowed the forecast range for the U.S. 2018/19 farm price to $7.60-$9.60 per bushel, a decrease of 25 cents.
  • Soybean meal and soybean oil prices remain unchanged at $290-$330 per short ton and 28-32 cents per pound, respectively.

U.S. Peanut Outlook

• Production Forecast:

  • U.S. peanut production for 2018/19 is forecasted at 1.35 million acres, a reduction of 39,000 acres from the previous forecast.
  • The harvested area is down 3% from the October forecast and 24% from 2017/18.

• Yield Forecast:

  • The U.S. average yield for peanuts is expected to decline by 101 pounds per acre to 4,066 pounds.

• Impact of Weather:

  • Excessive rains in the Southeast have slowed the harvest progress.
  • Hurricane Michael caused heavy production losses in Georgia and Florida, reducing the forecast for Georgia's production by 138 million pounds.

• Harvest Progress:

  • By November 4, 75% of the U.S. peanut acreage had been harvested, 6 percentage points behind the 5-year average.

Key Information

Global Soybean Outlook

• China's Soybean Imports:

  • China's soybean imports for 2018/19 are forecasted to decrease to 90 million metric tons from 94 million metric tons last month.
  • This is due to greater availability of domestic supplies and lower expected use.
  • China's domestic soybean production is expected to increase by 1 million tons to 16 million tons, leading to a tightening of beginning and ending stocks from 23.5 million tons to 19.8 million tons.

• China's Soybean Crush:

  • China's soybean crush is expected to decrease by 1 million tons this month.
  • This is due to data revisions indicating a reduced need for soybean meal.
  • However, the consumption of soybean-meal equivalent oilseed meals is expected to increase by 2%.

• China's Vegetable Oil Market:

  • The reduction in soybean oil supplies may be offset by an increase in palm oil imports by 200,000 tons to 5.6 million tons.
  • Total vegetable oil consumption in China is expected to rise by 2.7% in 2018/19.

• Brazil's Soybean Exports:

  • Brazil's 2018/19 soybean exports are forecasted to increase by 2 million tons to a record 77 million tons.
  • This is due to a record volume of trade to China, which accounts for nearly all of these shipments.
  • Brazil's soybean exports may continue to rise due to an accelerated planting pace, potentially increasing the crop ready for harvest by early January.

• Argentina's Soybean Outlook:

  • Argentina's 2018/19 soybean production is forecasted to decrease by 1.5 million tons to 55.5 million tons due to a lower forecasted area.
  • The country's soybean area is reduced by 500,000 hectares to 18.5 million hectares, still above the 2017/18 level of 16.3 million hectares.
  • Argentina may become the world's fourth-largest soybean import market in 2018/19 with imports totaling 4.2 million tons.

Other Oil Crops

Sunflowerseed Outlook

• Global Production:

  • Global sunflowerseed production for 2018/19 is forecasted to increase by 687,000 tons to 50.4 million tons.
  • Russia's production is expected to rise by 500,000 tons to a record 11.5 million tons.
  • The EU's production is forecasted to increase by 250,000 tons to 9.85 million tons due to higher yields in Romania and Bulgaria.

• Russia's Crush:

  • Russian sunflowerseed crush is expected to increase by 400,000 tons to 10.8 million tons.
  • Exports of sunflowerseed oil are forecasted to increase by 100,000 tons to 2.2 million tons.

Australian Canola Outlook

• Production Forecast:

  • Australia's 2018/19 canola production is forecasted to decrease by 300,000 tons to 2.6 million tons.
  • The decline is attributed to extreme drought in southeastern Australia.
  • The harvested area is expected to decrease by 39,000 acres, with an overall yield decline of 101 pounds per acre to 4,066 pounds.

• Export Forecast:

  • Australian canola exports are expected to decrease by 300,000 tons to 2.2 million tons.

Tables Summary

• Table 1: Highlights the U.S. soybean supply and disappearance for the 2018/19 season, including production, imports, exports, and ending stocks.
• Table 2: Details U.S. soybean meal supply and disappearance, showing production, imports, exports, and domestic use.
• Table 3: Provides data on U.S. soybean oil supply and disappearance, including production, imports, exports, and domestic use.
• Table 4: Summarizes U.S. cottonseed supply and disappearance, including production, imports, and ending stocks.
• Table 5: Shows U.S. cottonseed meal supply and disappearance, including production, imports, and ending stocks.
• Table 6: Outlines U.S. cottonseed oil supply and disappearance, including production, imports, and ending stocks.