20210816-USDA-USDA_Feed_Outlook_2021.08.16_36页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of the Outlook Report (FDS-21h, August 16, 2021)

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the U.S. and global coarse grain markets for the 2021/22 crop year, focusing on production, usage, trade, and price projections. It highlights the impact of weather conditions on crop yields and the resulting market tightness, which in turn influences prices and trade dynamics.

Main Points

U.S. Corn Outlook

Production: U.S. corn production for 2021/22 is projected at 14,750 million bushels, a 415-million-bushel reduction from the previous month's estimate.
Yield: National corn yield is forecast at 174.6 bushels per acre, down from 179.5 bushels per acre in July, but still higher than the previous year's 172.0 bushels per acre.
Harvested Area: Remains at 84.5 million acres, up from the 2020/21 level of 82.5 million acres.
Usage: Domestic corn use is projected at 12,250 million bushels, a 90-million-bushel decrease from the July estimate.
Exports: U.S. corn exports for 2020/21 are estimated at 2,775 million bushels, a record but with a decline in the final months due to tighter supplies and higher prices.
Imports: Reduced for Iran, Mexico, Vietnam, Egypt, Japan, and South Korea.
Ending Stocks: Projected at 1,242 million bushels, a 190-million-bushel decrease from July, leading to a higher season-average farm price of $5.75 per bushel.
Price Impact: Forward contracting and tight supplies are expected to increase prices received by farmers.

Sorghum Outlook

Production: Sorghum production for 2021/22 is raised to 409 million bushels, up 10 million bushels from July.
Yield: National average yield is 70.8 bushels per acre, an increase of 1.8 bushels per acre from the July forecast.
Exports: Projected at 320 million bushels, with a 12 percent increase from the previous marketing year due to strong foreign demand.
Price: Season-average farm price is $6.15 per bushel, $0.15 higher than the July forecast.

Barley Outlook

Production: Projected at 106 million bushels, a 9-million-bushel decrease from July.
Yield: Reduced to 51.6 bushels per acre, down 4.3 bushels per acre from the previous month.
Imports: Unchanged at 7 million bushels.
Usage: Feed and residual use is projected at 115 million bushels, a 5-million-bushel decrease from the July estimate.
Price: Season-average farm price is $5.75 per bushel, a $0.20 decrease from the July forecast.

Oats Outlook

Production: Projected at 41 million bushels, virtually unchanged from July.
Yield: Forecast at 57.4 bushels per acre, a 0.2 bushel per acre increase from July.
Imports: Reduced sharply to 77 million bushels, down 15 million bushels from July.
Usage: Feed and residual use is projected at 50 million bushels, a 15-million-bushel decrease from the July estimate.
Price: Season-average farm price remains at $3.60 per bushel, a significant increase from the previous year's $2.77 per bushel.

International Outlook

Global Coarse Grain Production: Projected at 1,484.4 million tons, a 12.4 million-ton decrease from the previous month.
Foreign Production: Reduced by 1.95 million tons, with lower barley and oats output partially offset by higher corn and rye production.
Key Country Changes:
- Ukraine: Increased corn production (+1.5 million tons) due to favorable weather.
- European Union: Reduced corn production (-1.2 million tons) due to heat and drought, but some areas (France, Germany) saw higher yields.
- Serbia: Reduced corn production (-0.8 million tons) due to heat.
- Brazil: Reduced corn production by 6 million tons to 87 million tons, the lowest since 2015/16, due to drought and late frosts.
- Canada: Reduced barley production (-2.5 million tons) due to prolonged heat and dryness.
- Australia: Increased barley production (+0.5 million tons) due to favorable July rains.
- India: Increased corn production (+0.5 million tons) with similar area planted to the previous year.

Key Implications

Tighter supplies in the U.S. are expected to raise grain prices.
Regional price variations are likely due to differing weather impacts across the country.
Export dynamics are influenced by global supply constraints and competition from other major producers.
Domestic usage for food, seed, and industrial purposes is increasing, while feed and residual use is declining.
Weather conditions play a significant role in shaping crop yields and market outcomes.