20220311-USDA-USDA_Oil_Crops_Outlook_2022.3.11_11页_319kb

Oil Crops Outlook Summary: March 2022

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the global and U.S. oil crops market, focusing on soybean and vegetable oil prices, production forecasts, and export dynamics. The analysis highlights the impact of adverse weather conditions in South America and the ongoing conflict in the Black Sea region on global supply and prices.

Main Points

Global Oilseed Prices and Production

• Global soybean production for the 2021/22 season decreased by 10 million metric tons to 353.8 million metric tons due to poor conditions in Southern Brazil, Paraguay, and Argentina.
• Soybean prices have increased significantly, with the USDA raising its forecast for the average price received by U.S. farmers to $13.25 per bushel from $13.00.
• Soybean meal prices were also increased to $420.00 per short ton from $410.00.
• Soybean oil prices increased by 2.0 cents to 68.0 cents per pound.
• Global vegetable oil stocks are expected to fall to 21.94 million metric tons, the lowest since 2016/17, due to reduced production and supply disruptions.

U.S. Domestic Outlook

• U.S. soybean export inspections for the September 2021–March 3, 2022 period totaled 1,519 million bushels, down by over 400 million bushels from the previous year.
• U.S. soybean exports for the 2021/22 season are forecasted to increase by 40 million bushels to 2,090 million bushels.
• U.S. soybean ending stocks are forecasted to decrease to 285 million bushels due to increased exports and stable crush volume.
• Soybean oil exports are forecasted to increase by 200 million pounds to 1.63 billion pounds.
• Domestic use of soybean oil for biofuel is expected to decrease due to higher prices, while use in food, feed, and other industrial sectors is projected to increase by 100 million pounds.

International Outlook

• Ukraine is the largest producer of sunflowerseed oil, with a forecasted production of 6.45 million metric tons, but this has been reduced by 840,000 metric tons due to the war.
• Ukraine's sunflowerseed oil exports are forecasted to decrease by 900,000 metric tons to 5.75 million metric tons.
• Russia is the second-largest producer of sunflowerseed oil, expected to produce 5.82 million metric tons, but its export forecast has also been reduced.
• Global sunflowerseed oil exports are expected to decrease by 1.5 million metric tons, affecting major importers like India, the European Union, and China.
• Global vegetable oil supply has been impacted by reduced sunflowerseed oil production and export disruptions, leading to tighter global stocks.

Key Information

• Global soybean exports are expected to decrease by 6.4 million metric tons due to lower South American supply.
• China's soybean imports are projected to decrease by 3 million metric tons to 94 million metric tons.
• U.S. soybean prices are currently the most competitive in the world market, with Gulf prices reaching $651.00 per metric ton.
• U.S. soybean oil is the most competitive oil in the market, leading to increased use in food, feed, and industrial applications.
• U.S. canola oil imports are expected to reach 3.98 billion pounds, reducing supplies by 421 million pounds from the previous year.
• Sunflowerseed oil imports from Ukraine are reduced by 50 million pounds due to supply interruptions in the Black Sea region.

Figures and Data

• Figure 1: Daily soybean prices for major exporters in 2022.
• Figure 2: U.S. domestic soybean oil supply and disappearance.
• Figure 3: Monthly average vegetable oil prices by major exporters.
• Figure 4: Global major vegetable oils ending stocks as of September 30.
• Figure 5: Ukrainian sunflowerseed oil supply and demand.
• Figure 6: Russian sunflowerseed oil supply and demand.

Conclusion

The 2021/22 season is marked by tight global vegetable oil markets and rising prices, primarily driven by reduced South American soybean production and supply disruptions in the Black Sea region. The U.S. remains a key player in the global market, with competitive soybean prices and increased export forecasts. However, the reduced supply of sunflowerseed oil from Ukraine and Russia has had a significant impact on global trade and market stability.