2008年-ECB欧洲央行_Results_of_the_ECB_Survey_of_Professional_Forecasters_for_the_fourth_quarter_of_2008_5页_244kb

ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters: Fourth Quarter of 2008 Results Summary

Core Content

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the fourth quarter of 2008 provides insights into the expectations of professional forecasters regarding inflation, GDP growth, and unemployment in the euro area. The survey was conducted between 15 and 17 October 2008 and includes responses from experts affiliated with financial and non-financial institutions in the EU.

Inflation Expectations

• 2008: Inflation expectations were revised downward to 3.4%, from 3.6% in the previous round (Q3 2008).
• 2009: Revised downward to 2.2%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points.
• 2010: Revised downward to 2.0%, from 2.1% in the previous round.
• Longer-term (2013): Revised slightly downward to 1.99%, from 2.03%.
• Probability Distribution: The probability of inflation being at or above 2% for 2009 and 2010 remains at 65% and 54%, respectively. The probability distribution for these years has shifted to lower outcomes compared to previous rounds.
• Risk Assessment: Risks to inflation forecasts are broadly balanced, with downside risks linked to commodity prices and weak demand, and upside risks associated with exchange rates and labour costs.

Real GDP Growth Expectations

• 2008: Revised downward to 1.2%, from 1.6% in the previous round.
• 2009: Revised downward to 0.3%, a significant drop of 1.0 percentage point.
• 2010: Revised downward to 1.4%, from 1.8% in the previous round.
• Longer-term (2013): Revised downward to 2.0%, from 2.1%.
• Probability Distribution: The probability distribution for real GDP growth in 2009 and 2010 has shifted to lower outcomes. In 2009, the largest probability is now associated with a range of 0.0% - 0.4%, with a 29% probability of negative growth.
• Uncertainty: Aggregate uncertainty (measured as standard deviation) has increased significantly since 2008, with the two-year-ahead forecast uncertainty exceeding the previous peak in 2002.
• Risk Assessment: The balance of risks to GDP forecasts is on the downside, primarily due to potential further deterioration of the factors mentioned.

Unemployment Rate Expectations

• 2008: Revised upward to 7.4%, from 7.2% in the previous round.
• 2009: Revised upward to 8.0%.
• 2010: Revised upward to 8.1%.
• Longer-term (2013): Revised upward to 7.1%, from 6.9%.
• Reasons for Revisions: Lower economic growth prospects and worsening labour market conditions, especially in the industry and construction sectors.
• Risk Assessment: The balance of risks is on the upside, with forecasters expecting the unemployment rate to level off by the end of 2009 and start to decline by the end of 2010.
• Labour Market Reforms: Some respondents emphasized the need to continue labour market reforms to prevent a short-term unemployment pick-up from becoming a long-term issue.

Comparison with Other Indicators

• Inflation Expectations: SPF results for 2008-10 are broadly in line with the ECB staff macroeconomic projections, Consensus Economics, and Euro Zone Barometer.
• GDP Growth Expectations: SPF expectations for 2009 and 2010 are at the bottom of the ranges reported by the ECB staff macroeconomic projections. They also align with the Euro Zone Barometer and Consensus Economics.
• Unemployment Expectations: SPF expectations for 2008-10 are in line with Consensus Economics and Euro Zone Barometer. Longer-term expectations are somewhat lower than those of the Euro Zone Barometer but based on more responses.

Additional Notes

• The SPF results reflect a heterogeneous set of views due to the diverse panel of participants.
• Break-even inflation rates (market-based indicators) have fallen sharply since September 2008, contrasting with the survey-based measures.
• Market factors such as investor risk aversion and preference for secure assets have influenced market-based inflation expectations.