20251119-招银国际-3Q_results_beat_travel_demand_remains_solid_6页_1mb

Summary of Trip.com (TCOM US) Equity Research

Key Financial Results

Trip.com Group (TCOM US) reported strong 3Q25 performance with total revenue of RMB18.4bn, up 15.5% YoY, exceeding both analyst and Bloomberg consensus estimates by 1%. Non-GAAP operating income reached RMB6.1bn, also beating estimates by 5-6%, attributed to better-than-expected operating leverage and one-off gains from the partial sale of MakeMyTrip stake. Non-GAAP net profit was RMB19.2bn, significantly higher than the RMB5.6bn consensus.

Forecast Upgrade

CMB Global Markets lifted 2025-2027E revenue and operating profit forecasts by 1-5% and 0-5%, respectively, to account for sustained international revenue growth (over 60% YoY) and improved operating efficiency in domestic and outbound segments. Revenue for 4Q25E is expected at RMB14.8bn, 2% above consensus.

Valuation Changes

The target price was increased from US$76.00 to US$83.00 (a 9% raise), reflecting a DCF-based valuation roll-forward to 2026E and higher earnings forecasts, translating to a 20x 2026E non-GAAP PE. The BUY recommendation is maintained.

Growth Drivers

International business revenue is accelerating and sustained into 4Q25E, with Trip.com representing 13% of group revenue and growing at over 60% YoY. Domestic and outbound segments show recovery, with improved operating efficiency contributing to margin expansion, leading to a non-GAAP OPM of 33.4% in 3Q25E, better than consensus.

Key Recommendations and Outlook

• Maintain BUY rating based on strong growth prospects and valuation upside.
• Expect mid-teens revenue growth driven by balanced expansion.
• Risks include travel demand volatility and competitive pressures.
• Recent price up 2.79% (as of analysis date).