20260521-招银国际-1Q26_results_beat_solid_revenue_growth_momentum_to_sustain_6页_1mb

Baozun (BZUN US) 1Q26 Summary

Core Content and Key Financial Performance

Baozun (BZUN US) reported its first-quarter 2026 (1Q26) results, which exceeded expectations. The company's revenue reached RMB2.4 billion, a 15% year-over-year (YoY) increase, surpassing the forecast and Bloomberg consensus by 3.0% and 3.5% respectively. This growth was driven by strong performance in both Baozun E-commerce (BEC) and Baozun Brand Management (BBM) segments.

• BEC Revenue: RMB1.9 billion, up 10% YoY, with non-GAAP operating profit improving to RMB13.0 million from a loss of RMB46 million in 1Q25.
• BBM Revenue: RMB538 million, up 39% YoY, with non-GAAP operating loss narrowing to RMB5 million from a loss of RMB21 million in 1Q25.

Non-GAAP net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was RMB1 million, compared to a loss of RMB57 million in 1Q25, reflecting improved operating profitability.

2Q26E Outlook

The company is expected to maintain solid revenue growth in the second quarter of 2026:

• BEC Revenue Growth: 7.5% YoY

• BBM Revenue Growth: 22.5% YoY

• BEC Non-GAAP OP: Expected to reach RMB102 million, up from RMB41 million in 2Q25.

• BBM Non-GAAP OP: Anticipated to narrow to a loss of RMB33 million, improving from RMB35 million loss in 2Q25.

The revenue forecast for 2Q26E is 5% ahead of the consensus, and the GAAP operating profit forecast of RMB56 million is also ahead of the consensus of RMB17 million.

Target Price and Investment Rating

• Target Price (SOTP-based): US$3.98
• Current Price: US$2.54
• Upside Potential: 56.7%

The firm maintains its BUY rating, indicating the stock has potential for more than a 15% return over the next 12 months.

Revenue and Profitability Trends

Operating Margin and Profitability Metrics

Shareholding and Market Data

• Market Cap (US$ mn): 148.3
• Average 3 Months Trading Volume (US$ mn): 0.4
• 52-Week High/Low (US$): 4.77 / 2.10
• Total Issued Shares (mn): 58.4

Shareholding Structure

Share Performance

Valuation and Forecast Comparison

CMBI Forecast vs. Consensus (RMB mn)

SOTP Valuation (RMB mn)

Analyst and Ratings Information

• Analysts: Saiyi HE, Ye TAO, Wentao LU, Shuyin GUO
• Ratings:
  • BUY: Potential return of over 15% over next 12 months
  • HOLD: Potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months
  • SELL: Potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months
  • NOT RATED: Not rated by CMBIGM
  • OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark
  • MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark
  • UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark

Disclaimer and Risk Statement

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. It is not suitable for all investors and may not reflect the individual circumstances of any particular investor. The value of investments may fluctuate and is not guaranteed. Investors are encouraged to consult with a professional financial advisor and should evaluate the information independently.

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