20251119-招银国际-3Q25_results_beat_earnings_swung_to_positive_growth_6页_1mb

CMB International Global Markets Equity Research

PDD Holdings (PDD US) - 3Q25

1. Key Highlights and Performance:

• 3Q25 performance exceeds expectations, with revenue up 9% YoY (RMB 108.3bn) and non-GAAP net profit growing 14.3% YoY (RMB 31.4bn).
• Earnings swung to positive growth ahead of expectations. Up/Downside is 29.0%.
• Target Price updated to US$154.30, a 6% increase from the previous $146.30.
• Transaction services revenue grew 9.9% YoY, beating consensus (+7% vs. expectations), though online marketing services missed consensus (-4% YoY).
  • PDD launched a RMB100bn support program to enhance its ecosystem, which suppresses short-term monetization but strengthens its long-term competitive position.
• OPM improved due to better-than-expected S&M cost savings (+2.6ppt YoY reduction in S&M ratio). GPM in-line at 56.7%.

2. Financial Forecasts & Valuation:

• 2025-2027E Revenue Forecast: 6-9% higher than previously estimated. Non-GAAP NP forecasts raised 6-9%.
• SOTP-based valuation lifted to $154.30, driven by improvements in core app profitability and operational efficiency.
• 2026E non-GAAP NP growth expected at 18% due to enhanced cost control.

3. Commentary & Risks:

• Maintain BUY recommendation.
• Risks: Slower global expansion, geopolitical issues, and margin pressures.

4. Valuation Breakdown (SOTP):

• Main app: 12.5x 2025E P/E (Val: $100.7)
• Duoduo Grocery: 1.0x 2025E PS (Val: $1.9)
• Temu (2025E): 1.0x PS (Val: $20.7)
• Net cash contribution: $31.0/share

5. Key Financial Figures (Selected):

• Revenue: 9.0% YoY growth (3Q25). Non-GAAP Net Profit: +14.3% YoY.
• S&M ratio improved 2.6ppt YoY.

Disclosures: Analyst Certification included. Ratings: BUY. Valid until 19 Nov 2026.