20260227-招银国际-Results_beat_travel_demand_remains_resilient_6页_667kb

Trip.com (TCOM US) Summary

Core Content

Trip.com Group (TCOM) reported its 4Q25 financial results, showcasing strong performance with total revenue of RMB15.4bn, representing a $20.8%$ YoY increase and surpassing the Bloomberg consensus estimates by $4%$. The company's revenue growth was driven by robust performance across multiple segments, including corporate travel, package tour, and Others. Non-GAAP operating income (OP) was RMB3.2bn, $2%$ above the consensus, reflecting the strong revenue growth.

For the full year of 2025, total revenue and non-GAAP OP are expected to grow by $17%$ and $11%$ YoY, respectively. Despite facing sentiment-driven headwinds, TCOM's competitive advantages over domestic peers — such as robust supply chain capabilities, high service quality, comprehensive product offerings, and global coverage — remain intact and are expected to support long-term growth. International expansion is progressing and is anticipated to unlock further development opportunities.

Main Points

• Revenue Growth:

  • 4Q25: RMB15.4bn, up $20.8%$ YoY, beating Bloomberg consensus by $4%$.
  • 1Q26E: Total revenue is expected to reach RMB15.9bn, $1%$ above Bloomberg consensus.
  • FY2026E: Total revenue is forecasted to grow by $14.5%$ YoY to RMB71.6bn.

• Non-GAAP Operating Profit:

  • 4Q25: RMB3.2bn, $2%$ better than consensus.
  • FY2026E: Non-GAAP OP is estimated at RMB20.2bn, up $12%$ YoY, translating to a non-GAAP OPM of $28.3%$ (from $28.9%$ in 2025).

• Operating Efficiency:

  • The company is working on improving operating efficiency for its international business, which is still in a loss-making stage.
  • The non-GAAP OPM is expected to improve in 2026, with the operating loss margin for Trip.com anticipated to show an improvement trend.

• International Business:

  • Trip.com/Skyscanner and others accounted for $18/7%$ of group-level revenue in 4Q25.
  • Revenue growth for Trip.com was over $60%$ YoY, and this growth is expected to continue in 1Q26E.
  • International expansion is on track to drive long-term growth.

Key Financial Forecasts

Valuation and Investment Recommendation

• Target Price: US$83.00.
• Current Price: US$52.27.
• Upside/Downside: 58.8%.
• DCF Valuation:
  • The valuation per ADS is based on a WACC of $10.5%$ and a terminal growth rate of $1%$.
  • The total equity valuation for 2026E is expected to be RMB399.9bn, translating to a valuation per ADS of US$83.00.
• Investment Recommendation: Maintain BUY.

Shareholding and Stock Data

• Market Cap: US$35,998.6 million.
• Average 3-month Turnover: US$211.9 million.
• 52-Week High/Low: US$78.96 / US$52.21.
• Total Issued Shares: 688.7 million.
• Shareholding Structure:
  • Capital World Investors: 7.9%
  • Baidu: 6.4%

Share Performance

• 12-Month Price Performance:
  • 1-Month: -16.3%
  • 3-Months: -25.0%
  • 6-Months: -19.9%

Analyst Certification and Disclosures

• The analyst certifies that the views expressed reflect their personal opinions and that their compensation is not tied to the report's content.
• The analyst confirms no trading in the covered stocks within 30 days prior to the report and will not trade within 3 business days after.
• The report is not tailored for individual investors and should not be considered as investment advice.
• CMBIGM is not a registered broker-dealer in the U.S. and is not subject to U.S. rules on research reports and analyst independence.

CMBIGM Ratings

• BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months.
• HOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over the next 12 months.
• SELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over the next 12 months.
• NOT RATED: Stock not rated by CMBIGM.
• OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant market benchmark.
• MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the market benchmark.
• UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the market benchmark.

Disclaimer

• This report is for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for investment decisions.
• The information is subject to change and is based on publicly available data.
• CMBIGM is not liable for any losses or damages resulting from reliance on the report.
• The report may not be reproduced, reprinted, sold, or published without prior written consent.