普华永道-零售2020：在两极分化的世界中取胜（英文）-2020.10-50页_1mb

Summary of Retailing 2020: Winning in a Polarized World

Core Content

This report, Retailing 2020: Winning in a Polarized World, is a follow-up to the 2015 study and provides insights into the evolving US retail landscape. It highlights the increasing complexity and polarization of the retail market, driven by technological advancements, demographic shifts, globalization, and changing consumer behavior. The report emphasizes the need for retailers to adapt to these challenges and leverage new strategies to remain competitive.

Main Viewpoints

• Polarization of the Market: The US retail market is expected to become more fragmented and polarized, with distinct segments of shoppers and retailers. This polarization will manifest in different ways, including:

  • Channel Fragmentation: A significant increase in non-store retail, with physical stores becoming more localized and personalized.
  • Income Fragmentation: The US is the most income-polarized developed economy, leading to the growth of two distinct shopper groups: the "Haves" (higher income, more resilient) and the "Have Nots" (lower income, more sensitive to economic pressures).
  • Shopping Behavior Fragmentation: Shoppers will have increasingly polarized decision-making processes, with some seeking premium products and others looking for extreme value.

• Technology as a Key Enabler: The rapid pace of technological change will be central to shaping the retail environment. Retailers must harness these technologies to enhance transparency, personalization, and operational efficiency.

• Globalization and Local Adaptation: While the global nature of the supply chain will increase, there will be a shift towards more localized sourcing and operations to meet the demand for speed and cost efficiency.

• Omnichannel Retailing: The future of retail will be defined by seamless integration across all channels, enabling retailers to provide a unified shopping experience. This includes leveraging digital and physical touchpoints to create a "one-stop life shop" for consumers.

• Consumer-Centric Models: Retailers must focus on understanding and responding to individual shopper needs. This requires a shift from traditional mass-market strategies to more personalized and context-aware approaches.

• Strategic Paradoxes: Retailers will face several paradoxes in the 2020 landscape, such as balancing global and local operations, standardization versus personalization, data as an advantage or risk, and efficiency versus effectiveness.

Key Information

• Non-Store Retail Growth: By 2020, non-store retail is projected to account for 12% of the overall US retail marketplace for non-automotive goods. This includes online and mobile commerce.

• Supercenter Decline: Supercenters will see a decline in their share of total US sales, decreasing from 14.4% in 2010 to 12.7% in 2020. This reflects a shift towards more fragmented and diverse retail formats.

• Consumer Behavior: Post-recession, shoppers are more deal-oriented and cautious. However, younger generations (Gen Y and Gen X) show more optimism about financial recovery compared to older generations.

• Data and Transparency: The use of "Big Data" and real-time tracking technologies (such as RFID) will allow retailers to better understand and anticipate shopper needs. Transparency in the supply chain will become a key differentiator for premium brands.

• Economic Recovery: The "Haves" will recover more quickly from the economic downturn, while the "Have Nots" will continue to pose a challenge. Retailers must tailor their strategies to cater to both groups.

• New Efficiency Concept: Leading retailers will be those that successfully integrate effectiveness and efficiency, creating a new model of operational performance that emphasizes dynamic value chain management and strategic reimagining.

Key Trends

• Consumer-Driven Supply Chain: Retailers will need to be more responsive to consumer demands, integrating data and insights into their supply chain operations.
• Growth Fragmentation: The US retail market will experience growth across multiple, smaller, and more diverse formats, moving away from the dominance of large, centralized retail models.
• Globalization: Retailers will need to operate more globally but also be more agile and localized in their strategies.
• Omnichannel Integration: Retailers will need to ensure seamless integration across all channels, including physical stores, online platforms, and mobile apps.
• Transparency and Knowledge-Centric Shopping: Consumers will demand more transparency in the retail supply chain, which will require retailers to be more open and informative.

Strategic Implications

• Operational Reforms: Retailers must adopt more efficient and effective operating models, focusing on data-driven decision-making and the ability to reimagine traditional processes.
• Personalization and Customization: Retailers must develop strategies that cater to the individual needs of shoppers, including personalized pricing and tailored experiences.
• Brand Evolution: Retail brands will need to become more diverse and segmented, moving away from a one-size-fits-all approach to a more nuanced and context-aware branding strategy.
• Data Security and Privacy: As data becomes more central to retail operations, managing data security and privacy will be a critical challenge for retailers.
• Investment in Independent Capabilities: Retailers will need to invest in private brands, direct-to-consumer marketing, and other independent capabilities to differentiate themselves in a competitive market.

Conclusion

The retail landscape of 2020 will be defined by polarization, technological innovation, and a consumer-centric approach. Retailers who can adapt to these changes, manage complexity, and balance global and local strategies will be the most successful. The report underscores the importance of rethinking traditional models and embracing new efficiencies to thrive in this dynamic environment.