20140716-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_14页_2mb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 16 July 2014
Core Content Overview
This summary provides an overview of the regional oil and gas market as of 15 July 2014, highlighting price movements, key news, and analyst ratings for major players in the sector across Asia, India, Malaysia, the Philippines, and other regions. The data reflects the market's current state and offers insights into the investment outlook for various companies.
Major Oil & Gas Prices and Indexes (Closing as of 15 July 2014)
| Product | Bloomberg Ticker | Units | Last Price | Dollar Change 1D | 1D % Change | 1W % Change | 1M % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil (Brent) | COA COMDTY | USD/bbl. | 106.02 | -0.96 | -0.9% | -2.7% | -5.7% |
| Crude Oil (WTI) | CLA COMDTY | USD/bbl. | 99.96 | -0.95 | -0.9% | -3.3% | -5.8% |
| Dubai Fateh Spot | PGCRDUBA Index | USD/bbl. | 104.87 | -0.47 | -0.4% | -1.7% | -3.8% |
| China Daqing Spot | APCRDAQG Index | USD/bbl. | 103.98 | -1.00 | -1.0% | -3.4% | -6.8% |
| NYMEX Henry Hub | NGA COMDTY | USD/MMBtu | 4.10 | -0.05 | -1.2% | -2.5% | -13.7% |
| LNG Northeast Asia CFR | JKMSGM1 Index | USD/MMBtu | 10.85 | -0.55 | -4.8% | -10.7% | -21.4% |
| Singapore 92 RON Spot | MOGFM92S Index | USD/bbl. | 121.31 | -0.44 | -0.4% | -0.1% | 2.1% |
| Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot | GASL500P Index | USD/bbl. | 119.43 | -0.19 | -0.2% | -0.9% | -3.1% |
| 3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot | N6SH180S Index | USD/mt | 602.21 | -1.54 | -0.3% | -0.6% | -3.3% |
| Gold | XAU CURNCY | USD/Oz | 1,294.05 | -13.10 | -1.0% | -1.9% | 1.3% |
| USD-CNY | USDCNY CURNCY | Fx rate | 6.21 | 0.00 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| DJI | DJI INDEX | Index | 17,060.68 | 5.26 | 0.0% | 0.9% | 1.7% |
| S&P 500 | SPX INDEX | Index | 1,973.28 | -3.82 | -0.2% | 0.5% | 1.9% |
Key News Headlines
- US & China Strategic Crude Stockpile Agreement: The US and China signed a preliminary agreement to share technology and information on strategic crude stockpiles, indicating increased collaboration.
- China's Climate Change Control Plans: China is on track to submit its climate change control plans by Q1 2015, as stated by German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
- Shale Gas Study Tour: The US will fund a two-week shale gas tour for nine Chinese delegates, showcasing its interest in energy cooperation.
- India's Privatization Plans: India may allow private investors to buy a 5% stake in ONGC, which is valued at USD2.9 billion.
- Reliance's Cost Recovery Disallowed: The Indian government disallowed Reliance from recovering costs in an offshore gas project, highlighting regulatory challenges.
- Otto Marine's Charter Contracts: Otto Marine secured USD404 million in OSV charter contracts, indicating strong demand in the offshore sector.
Latest Reports and Ratings
- Ezion Holdings: Secured USD269 million in contracts; target price at SGD2.70. Maintain BUY.
- Nam Cheong Ltd: Optimism reinforced; target price raised to SGD0.55. Reiterate BUY.
- UMW Oil & Gas Corporation: Secured first JU drilling contract in Myanmar; target price at MYR4.16. Reiterate BUY.
- Sinopec: Restructuring update; no IPO planned. Maintain HOLD.
- Yinson Holdings: No surprises; target price at MYR3.03. Reiterate BUY.
- Petron Corp: RMP-2 nearing completion; target price at PHP16.80. Reiterate BUY.
- SapuraKencana Petroleum: Results on track; target price at MYR5.30. Maintain BUY.
Analyst Insights
- Offshore & Marine: Key OSV players are optimistic about long-term fundamentals but cautious about near-term challenges. Maintain NEUTRAL on the sector.
- China Oil & Gas (Initiation): Initiated with a NEUTRAL view. BUY on PetroChina and NewOcean Energy, HOLD on CNOOC and Sinopec.
- PetroChina: Key beneficiary of energy reforms; target price at HKD11.50. Initiated at BUY.
- China Petroleum & Chemical Corp: HOLD due to lack of immediate earnings improvement; target price at HKD6.85.
- CNOOC: HOLD with target price at HKD14.34. Earnings outlook uninspiring unless oil prices rise.
- NewOcean Energy: BUY; target price at HKD8.88. Strong potential in auto LNG.
- PTT E&P: BUY; target price at 188.00. Strong growth prospects in the energy sector.
Asia Oil & Gas Valuation Comparison
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price 15-Jul | Target Price | Mkt Cap USD | 900 T/O USDm | P/E (2014E) | P/E (2015E) | EV/EBITDA (2014E) | EV/EBITDA (2015E) | RoE % | P/B (2014E) | P/B (2015E) | Yield % | Yield % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | Buy | 10.08 | 11.50 | 224.3 | 83.0 | 11.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 11.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 4.1 | 4.1 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | Hold | 7.30 | 6.85 | 97.7 | 75.6 | 9.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 11.7 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | Hold | 13.46 | 14.34 | 77.5 | 84.1 | 8.8 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 15.1 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 412.65 | NR | 58.6 | 51.6 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 18.1 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.9 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 972.20 | NR | 52.2 | 72.1 | 11.9 | 10.7 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 12.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 2.9 | 2.9 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | Buy | 341.15 | 443.00 | 10.8 | 17.1 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 23.6 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 4.1 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 582.05 | NR | 7.0 | 19.2 | 14.5 | 13.1 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 14.4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 401.00 | NR | 2.3 | 13.6 | 9.3 | 7.7 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 9.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | Buy | 12.26 | 16.80 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 15.3 | 7.9 | 10.2 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Phoenix Petroleum Philippines | PNX PM | Buy | 6.29 | 7.05 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 10.1 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 8.3 | 13.9 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Petronas Gas | PTG MK | Hold | 23.62 | 23.50 | 14.6 | 5.2 | 28.1 | 7.9 | 15.1 | 14.0 | 18.1 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| PTT Global Chemical PCL | PTTGC TB | Buy | 68.50 | 87.00 | 9.6 | 24.9 | 8.8 | 8.3 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 16.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 3.9 | 3.9 |
| Thai Oil PCL | TOP TB | Sell | 53.50 | 65.00 | 3.4 | 6.2 | 11.8 | 10.4 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 10.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Asian Refiners average | - | - | - | - | - | - | 15.9 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 9.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 3.3 | 3.3 |
Conclusion
The regional oil and gas market showed mixed performance, with declines in key commodities such as Brent, WTI, and LNG Northeast Asia. Strategic collaborations, such as the US-China agreement on crude stockpiles, and the privatization of state-owned companies like ONGC in India indicate evolving market dynamics. Analysts remain optimistic about the long-term potential of the offshore sector, though cautious about short-term challenges. Investment ratings for various companies reflect a mix of BUY, HOLD, and SELL, based on their financial performance, growth prospects, and market positioning.
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