20140710-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_13页_574kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 10 July 2014
Core Content Overview
This summary presents the latest market updates and analyst ratings for oil and gas companies across Asia, including China, India, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. It also includes key oil and gas price movements, company-specific updates, and valuation comparisons.
Major Oil & Gas Price Movements (09 July 2014)
| Product | Price (USD) | 1D Change | 1W Change | 1M Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent | 108.28 | -0.66 | -0.6% | -2.7% |
| WTI | 102.29 | -1.11 | -1.1% | -2.1% |
| Dubai Fateh Spot | 106.02 | -0.66 | -0.6% | -2.6% |
| China Daqing Spot | 106.75 | -0.94 | -0.9% | -2.8% |
| NYMEX Henry Hub | 4.17 | -0.03 | -0.8% | -4.3% |
| LNG Northeast Asia CFR | 11.85 | -0.30 | -2.5% | -7.4% |
| Singapore 92 RON Spot | 121.35 | -0.11 | -0.1% | -0.4% |
| Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot | 119.54 | -1.03 | -0.9% | -2.9% |
| 3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot | 604.78 | -1.29 | -0.2% | -2.0% |
| Gold | 1,327.83 | +8.59 | +0.7% | +0.1% |
| USD-CNY | 6.20 | -0.00 | 0.0% | -0.2% |
| DJI | 16,985.61 | +78.99 | +0.5% | +0.1% |
| S&P 500 | 1,972.83 | +9.12 | +0.5% | -0.1% |
- The Brent crude price dropped by 0.6%, while WTI fell by 1.1%.
- LNG Northeast Asia CFR fell by 2.5%.
- Gold prices increased by 0.7%, while USD-CNY remained stable.
News Headlines
- ONGC gives go ahead on Tamil Nadu drilling: Despite local resistance, India's state-owned ONGC has approved drilling operations in Tamil Nadu.
- Primeline says LS36-1 gas field near operational: Primeline Energy is ready to produce gas from its LS36-1 field, with transmission through CNOOC's pipeline.
- BW looks to clear up FPSO ownership: BW Offshore and Yinson Holdings are working on a mutual agreement to achieve 100% ownership of Petroleo Nautipa.
- Inpex increases Lucius stake: Inpex raised its stake in the Lucius field to 7.5% from 7.2% in 2012.
- Ukrainian gas demand down in June: Gas demand in Ukraine fell to 1.19bcm, allowing continued storage injections.
- Seadrill calls off USD1b CB issuance: Seadrill halted its convertible bond issuance due to a share price slump, with a cash pile of USD1.5b.
Our Latest Reports
Sinopec
- Rating: HOLD
- Target Price: HKD6.85
- Comment: Valuation appears stretched, and earnings have not improved. The company is retaining 70% of enlarged capital.
Yinson Holdings
- Rating: BUY
- Target Price: MYR3.03
- Comment: 1QFY1/15 results are in line with expectations. Targeting one new FPSO job in 2014.
Petron Corp
- Rating: BUY
- Target Price: PHP16.80
- Comment: RMP-2 is close to completion, and the stock has underperformed the PSEi. TP revised higher due to updated forecasts.
SapuraKencana Petroleum
- Rating: BUY
- Target Price: MYR5.30
- Comment: Core net profit in line, 2.35sen DPS is a positive surprise. Secured 2 EPCIC contracts totaling MYR1.3b.
Offshore & Marine
- Rating: NEUTRAL
- Comment: OSV operators are optimistic about long-term fundamentals but cautious about near-term challenges.
PetroChina
- Rating: BUY
- Target Price: HKD11.50
- Comment: Believed to have true value not yet reflected. Will benefit from the Chinese energy reform, especially the W2E pipeline sell-off.
NewOcean Energy
- Rating: BUY
- Target Price: HKD8.88
- Comment: Access to auto LNG, which is the fastest-growing segment in China. Likely to become the largest auto natural gas distributor by 2017.
Valuation Comparison (Asia Oil & Gas)
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price (09-Jul) | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USD) | P/E 2014E | P/E 2015E | EV/EBITDA 2014E | EV/EBITDA 2015E | RoE % | P/B (X) | Yield % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | Buy | 9.65 | 11.50 | 221.6 | 84.7 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 11.3 | 1.2 | 4.3 |
| Sinopoe - H | 386 HK | Hold | 7.24 | 6.85 | 97.1 | 81.9 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 11.7 | 1.1 | 4.1 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | Hold | 13.46 | 14.34 | 77.5 | 87.4 | 8.8 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 15.1 | 1.3 | 4.0 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 404.95 | NR | 58.0 | 51.6 | 10.7 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 18.0 | 1.8 | 2.9 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 1,000.95 | NR | 54.2 | 71.7 | 12.2 | 10.9 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 12.3 | 1.4 | 2.3 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | Buy | 351.75 | 443.00 | 11.2 | 17.8 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 23.6 | 4.9 | 4.0 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 582.85 | NR | 7.1 | 19.0 | 14.8 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 14.2 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 398.60 | NR | 2.3 | 13.4 | 9.8 | 7.7 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 9.5 | 0.9 | 2.9 |
| INPEX | 1605 JT | NR | 1,505.00 | NR | 21.7 | 68.3 | 12.4 | 13.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 6.2 | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| JAPEX | 1662 JT | NR | 3,995.00 | NR | 2.2 | 14.7 | 7.7 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 6.7 | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| JX Holding | 5020 JT | NR | 536.00 | NR | 13.2 | 47.4 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 0.6 | 3.2 |
| Showa Shell | 5002 JT | NR | 1,119.00 | NR | 4.2 | 18.4 | 12.1 | 10.7 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 11.7 | 1.3 | 3.3 |
| TonenGeneral | 5012 JT | NR | 939.00 | NR | 5.2 | 15.7 | 35.5 | 19.6 | 15.1 | 13.0 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 4.0 |
| Idemitsu | 5019 JT | NR | 2,176.00 | NR | 3.4 | 8.5 | 12.5 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 0.5 | 2.3 |
| Cosmo | 5007 JT | NR | 207.00 | NR | 1.7 | 6.9 | 10.1 | 10.4 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 0.7 | 1.8 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | Buy | 12.46 | 16.80 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 15.6 | 8.0 | 10.3 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| Phoenix Petro | PNX PM | Buy | 6.75 | 7.05 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 10.9 | 9.2 | 10.5 | 9.3 | 13.9 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Petronas Gas | PTG MK | Hold | 24.26 | 23.50 | 15.1 | 5.1 | 28.8 | 27.8 | 16.2 | 15.6 | 15.1 | 4.4 | 2.4 |
| PTT E&P | PTTEP TB | Buy | 161.50 | 188.00 | 19.9 | 25.3 | 9.8 | 8.1 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 14.0 | 1.2 | 5.1 |
| Thai Oil PCL | TOP TB | Sell | 51.75 | 65.00 | 3.3 | 6.0 | 11.4 | 10.1 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 10.0 | 1.1 | 4.1 |
| Asian Refiners average | - | - | - | - | - | - | 15.7 | 12.9 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 9.4 | 1.4 | 3.3 |
Analyst Contacts
- Howard Wong (HK/CHINA): (852) 22680648, howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
- Jigar Shah (INDIA): (91) 226623 2601, jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
- Pandu Anugrah (INDONESIA): (62) 21 2557 1137, pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
- Liaw Thong Jung (MALAYSIA): (603) 22978688, tjiaw@maybank-ib.com
- Bianca Solema (PHILIPPINES): (63) 28498835, bianca_solema@maybank-atrke.com
- Laura Dy-Liacco (PHILIPPINES): (63) 28498840, laura_dyliacco@maybank-atrke.com
- Yeah Chee Keong (SINGAPORE): (65) 6432 1460, yeakcheekeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
- Sutthichai Kumworachai (THAILAND): (66) 2658 6300 x 1400, sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
- Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (VIETNAM): (84) 844555888×8082, chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
- Truong Quang Binh (VIETNAM): (84) 444555888 $\times$ 8087, binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Key Themes and Outlook
- Energy Reform in China: Phase II of the reform is underway, with natural gas liberalization, unconventional gas production, and natural gas vehicles as key themes.
- Valuation Dynamics: Some companies are rated as BUY, while others are HOLD or NEUTRAL, depending on their growth potential and market positioning.
- Market Challenges: Near-term challenges are noted for several companies, particularly in terms of earnings and cost inflation.
- LNG Market: LNG Northeast Asia CFR price fell by 2.5%, indicating market volatility.
- Corporate Developments: Drilling approvals, FPSO ownership discussions, and stake increases are shaping the sector's future.
Summary of Key Insights
- Market Trends: Crude oil prices for both Brent and WTI declined slightly, with LNG prices showing more significant drops.
- Company Updates: ONGC approved drilling in Tamil Nadu, Primeline Energy is nearing production at LS36-1, and Inpex increased its stake in the Lucius field.
- Valuation and Ratings: Multiple companies are rated BUY or HOLD, with varying target prices and expectations.
- Regional Focus: The report covers key players in Asia, including China, India, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.
- Future Outlook: The energy reform in China is expected to bring structural changes, with companies like PetroChina and NewOcean Energy benefiting.
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