20150907-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_782kb

报告摘要

Regional Oil & Gas Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive summary of the oil and gas market situation as of late September 2015, highlighting price movements, analyst insights, and key news impacting the industry. It includes price changes for major crude and product benchmarks, ratings for key companies in Asia, and news related to international oil and gas activities.

Key Price Movements

Crude Oil (Brent): Down 2.1% to USD49.61/b, with a 1-day change of -1.07 and a 1-month change of -2.0%.
Crude Oil (WTI): Down 1.5% to USD46.05/b, with a 1-day change of -0.70 and a 1-month change of -0.2%.
Dubai Fateh Spot: Up 0.0% to USD48.71/b, with a 1-day change of +0.01 and a 1-month change of +0.2%.
China Daqing Spot: Up 15.0% to USD44.98/b, with a 1-day change of +5.86 and a 1-month change of +0.8%.
NYMEX Henry Hub: Down 2.6% to USD2.66/MMBtu, with a 1-day change of -0.07 and a 1-month change of -6.5%.
LNG Northeast Asia CFR: Up 15.0% to USD7.62/MMBtu, with a 1-day change of -0.00 and a 1-month change of -5.6%.
Singapore 92 RON Spot: Down 1.1% to USD60.14/b, with a 1-day change of -0.68 and a 1-month change of -7.0%.
Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot: Up 1.2% to USD65.15/b, with a 1-day change of +0.80 and a 1-month change of +2.6%.
3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot: Down 1.7% to USD258.13/mt, with a 1-day change of -4.38 and a 1-month change of -6.0%.
Gold: Down 0.3% to USD1,121.85/Oz, with a 1-day change of -3.61 and a 1-month change of +3.1%.
USD-CNY: No change at 6.36, with a 1-day change of 0.00 and a 1-month change of +2.3%.
DJI: Down 1.7% to 16,102.38, with a 1-day change of -272.38 and a 1-month change of -8.3%.
S&P 500: Down 1.5% to 1,921.22, with a 1-day change of -29.91 and a 1-month change of -8.2%.

Main Reports and Ratings

China

PetroChina (H): Rating Sell, 1H15 net profit of CNY25.4b, down 63% YoY, representing 50% of full-year forecast. Expect drastic earnings cuts for 2H15 and 2016.
China Petroleum & Chemical Corp: Rating Hold, 1H15 net profit of CNY25.4b, down 22% YoY, representing 68% of FY15 consensus. Expect drastic earnings cuts for 2H15 and 2016.
CNOOC LTD: Rating Buy, 1H15 profit of CNY14.7b, representing 57% of FY15 consensus. Strong volume growth and cost control, but expect earnings cuts for 2H15 and 2016.

India

ONGC: Rating NR, Price 225.6, 90D T/O 17.8, PER 8.1, EV/EBITDA 4.3, ROE 13.3%, P/BV 4.4.
Reliance Industries: Rating NR, Price 835.9, 90D T/O 60.4, PER 11.2, EV/EBITDA 9.8, ROE 11.2%, P/BV 1.2.
Cairn India: Rating Hold, Price 146.8, Target Price 198.00, 90D T/O 7.6, PER 4.0, EV/EBITDA 1.2, ROE 11.7%, P/BV 6.2.
BPCL: Rating NR, Price 850.6, 90D T/O 24.9, PER 19.6, EV/EBITDA 10.5, ROE 15.2%, P/BV 2.9.
HPCL: Rating NR, Price 783.3, 90D T/O 24.4, PER 20.0, EV/EBITDA 10.0, ROE 8.8%, P/BV 1.8.

Japan

INTEX: Rating NR, Price 1,138, 90D T/O 59.3, PER 19.1, EV/EBITDA 3.0, ROE 3.2%, P/BV 0.6.
JAPEX: Rating NR, Price 3,365, 90D T/O 9.1, PER 5.5, EV/EBITDA 4.9, ROE 7.7%, P/BV 1.0.
JX Holding: Rating NR, Price 440, 90D T/O 17.7, PER N/A, EV/EBITDA N/A, ROE -250.6%, P/BV 0.6.
Showa Shell: Rating NR, Price 948, 90D T/O 3.0, PER 16.2, EV/EBITDA 7.7, ROE 1.3%, P/BV 4.0.
TonenGeneral: Rating NR, Price 1,145, 90D T/O 5.4, PER 21.7, EV/EBITDA 16.4, ROE 1.6%, P/BV 0.5.
Idemitsu: Rating NR, Price 1,927, 90D T/O 2.6, PER N/A, EV/EBITDA -32.7%, ROE 0.9%, P/BV 1.2.
Cosmo: Rating NR, Price 176, 90D T/O 1.3, PER N/A, EV/EBITDA -179.9%, ROE 0.9%, P/BV 0.0.
PTT E&P: Rating Buy, Price 73.50, Target Price 188, 90D T/O 5.9, PER 9.2, EV/EBITDA 6.1, ROE 1.0%, P/BV 5.0.
Thai Oil PCL: Rating Sell, Price 49.00, Target Price 65.00, 90D T/O 8.3, PER 8.1, EV/EBITDA 5.9, ROE 1.1%, P/BV 5.2.

Malaysia

Gas Malaysia: Rating Buy, Price 2.14, Target Price 2.65, 90D T/O 0.2, PER 22.3, EV/EBITDA 12.4, ROE 2.7%, P/BV 4.5.
Petronas Gas: Rating Hold, Price 21.32, Target Price 24.00, 90D T/O 5.9, PER 23.3, EV/EBITDA 14.0, ROE 3.8%, P/BV 3.0.
Perisai and UMWOG: Earnings cut by 39%–142% due to lower DCRs and utilization rates. Target prices lowered to MYR0.22 and MYR0.80 respectively.

Philippines

Petron Corp: Rating Buy, Price 7.50, Target Price 11.25, 90D T/O 0.6, PER 17.1, EV/EBITDA 8.8, ROE 0.8%, P/BV 0.7.
Phoenix Petro: Rating Buy, Price 3.25, Target Price 4.75, 90D T/O 0.1, PER 5.5, EV/EBITDA 7.6, ROE 0.6%, P/BV 3.1.

Vietnam

PetroVietnam Gas: Rating Buy, Price 45,900, Target Price 92,000, 90D T/O 1.1, PER 10.0, EV/EBITDA 4.8, ROE 2.2%, P/BV 7.6.
Rosneft and Japan Drilling Co.: Planning to drill two wells in Blocks 06.1 and 05-3/11 in the Nam Con Son basin in 2016.

Other Asian Markets

Formosa Petrochemical: Rating NR, Price 73.30, 90D T/O 8.1, PER 19.4, EV/EBITDA 12.2, ROE 2.7%, P/BV 3.7.
Bangchak Petroleum: Rating Buy, Price 33.75, Target Price NR, 90D T/O 12.3, PER 19.1, EV/EBITDA 10.5, ROE 1.0%, P/BV 0.6.
IRPC PCL: Rating Hold, Price 3.68, Target Price 3.74, 90D T/O 12.3, PER 11.2, EV/EBITDA 16.7, ROE 1.2%, P/BV 3.0.
PTT Global Chemical PCL: Rating Buy, Price 56.25, Target Price 87.00, 90D T/O 25.3, PER 9.2, EV/EBITDA 6.1, ROE 1.0%, P/BV 5.0.
Asian Refiners Average: Includes companies like Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and others with varying ratings and financial metrics.

Key News Headlines

Oil Bears Cashing Out: Oil prices experienced extreme volatility, with a significant rally followed by a sharp decline. Short positions in WTI were cut by 13%, the largest liquidation since May.
US Shale Oil Outflows: US shale producers faced a cash outflow of over $30bn in the first half of 2015, signaling financial strain.
Baker Hughes Rig Count Decline: US rig count dropped by 13, reflecting the impact of lower oil prices despite recent gains.
China's Crude Oil Imports: China increased imports from Russia to secure supply, with potential for overland pipelines.
Rosneft and Japan Drilling Co.: Agreed to drill two wells offshore Vietnam, highlighting regional cooperation and exploration activities.

Analysts

Howard Wong (HK/CHINA): Contact details provided.
Jigar Shah (INDIA): Contact details provided.
Pandu Anugrah (INDONESIA): Contact details provided.
Liaw Thong Jung (MALAYSIA): Contact details provided.
Michael Bengson (PHILIPPINES): Contact details provided.
Yeah Chee Keong (SINGAPORE): Contact details provided.
Sutthichai Kumworachai (THAILAND): Contact details provided.
Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen and Truong Quang Binh (VIETNAM): Contact details provided.

Valuation Insights

Asia Oil & Gas Average: Includes key metrics for various companies, weighted by market capitalization.
Asia Oil-Service Average: Includes valuation data for companies like COSL, Anton Oil, and others, highlighting their financial performance and market position.

This summary captures the essential market dynamics, financial performance, and strategic developments affecting the regional oil and gas sector.

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