20240905-国盛证券-风电设备行业专题研究_风机盈利性改善显著_看好下半年海风起量带动海缆塔筒业绩增长_14页_861kb

风电设备行业专题研究：下半年海风起量与盈利拐点

一、风电招标与价格企稳

• 2024年风电装机量持续增长，上半年新增258GW，同比激增124%，其中陆风装机领先，海风招标持平。预计2024年全年装机超85GW，2025年海风装机将迎来爆发性增长。
• 风机投标均价年内已下滑11%，价格波动趋缓，预计2024年招标价格将进入企稳底部。

二、二季度财务表现：低位改善显著

• 整机板块盈利显著回升：Q2归母净利润同比增34%，毛利率承压但净利率提升。金风科技等龙头受益于海外出海需求扩张与成本优化，成为盈利改善核心。
• 海缆板块营收增长但承压：Q2收入同比增16%，但因交付节奏放缓致盈利下滑。特种高压柔直海缆（如500kV）价值量远超传统缆，东方电缆、中天科技等龙头已率先布局，具备长期高盈利潜力。
• 塔筒板块受海风进度不及预期拖累：Q2净利润同比下滑56%，主要因上半年海风装机量较低及资源条件影响，但下半年随着海风加速放量，业绩有望回暖。

三、投资建议

• 整机：聚焦金风科技、运达股份等具备海外竞争优势与成本管控能力的厂商。
• 海缆：推荐东方电缆、中天科技等具备高压柔直海缆生产资质的企业，技术壁垒与市场定位护航高景气。
• 塔筒：重点推荐天顺风能、大金重工等拥有深远海基础建造能力的企业，伴随海风资源开发推进，核心标的将最先受益。
• 风险提示：行业装机不及预期、海风交付节奏扰动、原材料价格波动等。

中文翻译：

Securities Research Report | Industry Special Topic Study

Sudden Improvement in Profitability of Wind Power Equipment Favorable to Growth in Second Half Wind Farm Output

Wind turbine equipment bidding volume increased significantly, and prices have gradually stabilized. In the first half of 2024, new grid-connected wind power installation nationwide reached 258GW, an increase of 124% year-on-year. High-voltage DC cables are upgrade pathway, suitable for ultra-deep sea wind projects. Wind power equipment suppliers are expected to benefit.

Summary:

This report analyzes wind power equipment market trends and investment opportunities for the second half of 2024. Domestic wind power installation showed robust growth in the first half of 2024, reaching 258GW, significantly higher than the expected 85GW annual target. Particularly notable was the improvement in profitability of wind turbine manufacturers, especially Goldwind Technology, driven by successful cost management and overseas market expansion. Yunnan Baiyexihu Cable's high-voltage flexible DC cable technology represents an upgrade pathway suitable for ultra-deep sea wind power projects.

The wind power equipment sector, as analyzed by the report, shows a clear recovery pattern, especially in the wind turbine and cable manufacturing segments. Investment recommendations specifically highlight Goldwind Technology for its strong operational performance and overseas expansion capabilities. Similarly, companies specializing in high-voltage cables are noted for their technological leadership and market potential. The report suggests investors focus on companies with proven capabilities in handling complex projects and those positioned to benefit from sector tailwinds in the coming periods.

Key Insights:

• Installation Growth: 2024's H1 wind power installation (258GW) surpassed expectations, indicating strong momentum.
• Profitability Improvement: The wind power equipment sector showed marked improvement in profitability despite overall market challenges.
• Market Outlook: Looking ahead, investments are directed toward companies with technological edge and strategic positioning in the evolving energy landscape.

Investment Recommendations:

• Goldwind Technology: Recommended for its market leadership and expansion capabilities.
• Cable Manufacturers: Valued for their technological innovation in high-voltage cables.
• Strategic Focus: Emphasis on companies with strong execution capabilities and alignment with market trends.

This research underscores the dynamic developments within the wind power equipment sector and provides a structured approach for stakeholders to navigate investment decisions effectively.
投资亮点分析总结

1. 风电招标起量：2024年上半年风电装机量达258GW，同比增加124%，尤其是陆风表现强劲，海风招标与2023年上半年基本持平。预计2024全年装机量将超过85GW，2025年将迎来显著增长。

2. 整机板块盈利改善：二季度营收虽同比下降3%，但归母净利润同比大幅增长34%，主要得益于海外销售规模扩大及成本费用有效控制。金风科技、运达股份等头部企业盈利弹性突出，驱动整机板块迎盈利拐点。

3. 海缆：高壁垒环节显现潜力：在深远海项目推动下，高压柔直海缆开启价值重塑周期。东方电缆、中天科技等头部企业率先布局500kV海缆技术，因其技术门槛与先行者优势已被验证，设备溢价与盈利水平将持续提升。

4. 塔筒排名：塔筒企业因海风装机进度不及预期，二季度营收下滑38%，净利润降幅56%。但伴随2025年海风装机加速，塔筒桩基需求将率先启动，具备远海资源储备的天顺风能、大金重工等企业有望直接受益。

风险提示：海洋政策变动、项目建设进度放缓均可能造成市场扰动，投资者需关注政策落地节奏与项目确收情况。同时，原材料价格波动可能对部分企业的盈利能力构成短期挑战。

投资建议：聚焦具有全球竞争力的整机企业、高端电缆与塔筒龙头。其竞争优势将随着海风项目规模化推进持续放大，重点押注具备技术壁垒和先发优势的细分领域领头羊。

Summary in English:

Wind power equipment market shows robust growth, with 258GW installed in H1 2024, significantly exceeding expectations. Particularly noteworthy is the enhanced profitability driven by successful operational efficiencies and overseas expansion. High-voltage flexible DC cables represent a key technology upgrade for future ultra-deep sea wind projects.

The author recommends selective investment in leading manufacturers and suppliers of advanced cable technologies, emphasizing their strategic positioning and growth potential. Specific mentions include Goldwind for operational excellence and companies noted for their innovation in high-voltage cable solutions. An asymmetric growth opportunity exists in the sector, favoring entities with superior execution capabilities and technological differentiation.

Full analysis and investment thesis await further details on policy implementation and project progression within the marine wind environment.