20260104-国泰期货-Fuel_Oil_Market_Report_Weekly_35页_3mb

报告摘要

Fuel Oil Market Report Summary

Core Content Overview

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the fuel oil market for the week of January 4, 2026, focusing on supply, demand, price movements, and market spreads across various regions and futures contracts. It is authored by Kefang Liang from GTJA Futures Research Institute and is intended for professional investors only.

Main Points and Key Information

Market Price Trends

HSFO (High Sulfur Fuel Oil):
- Prices rebounded slightly, with limited fluctuations.
- The Middle East's stable HSFO exports and the off-season for ship fuel are bearish factors.
- The sudden escalation of geopolitical conflicts between the United States and Venezuela had a significant positive impact on HSFO prices.
- It is expected that both domestic and international HSFO prices will rise sharply after the opening on Monday.
LSFO (Low Sulfur Fuel Oil):
- Prices remained strong due to upward drivers.
- Brazilian exports are declining month-on-month, and the Dangote refinery maintenance will end in January, leading to a gradual decrease in LSFO exports.
- Geopolitical issues in Venezuela introduced risk premiums, supporting LSFO prices in the short term.

Valuation

FU (Fuel Oil Futures): 2400~2550
LU (Low Sulfur Fuel Oil Futures): 2900~3150

Market Strategy

Fuel oil prices have turned bullish in the short term.
The monthly difference structure between FU and LU has returned to contango, and it is difficult to reverse under loose supply conditions.
There is a possibility of further decline in FU/LU fragmentation; the LU-FU price difference will gradually decline in the short term.

Key Risks

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Latin America.
China-US trade negotiations.

Supply Analysis

Refinery Utilization (China)

CDU Utilization: Data from multiple sources including Bloomberg, Platts, Kpler, iFinD, Ganglian Data, and GTJA Research show varying levels of utilization across Chinese refineries.
State-Owned Refineries: Specific utilization data for state-owned refineries.
Independent Refineries: Utilization data for independent refineries.

Global Refinery Maintenance

CDU, Hydrocracker, FCC, Coker: Global refinery maintenance data indicates ongoing operations and scheduled downtime, impacting supply dynamics.

Production and Supply (China)

HSFO Production: Monthly production data from Chinese refineries.
LSFO Production: Monthly production data for low-sulfur fuel oil in China.

Demand Analysis

Global Fuel Oil Demand

Bunker Fuel Sales (Singapore): Reflects the demand from the shipping sector.
Fuel Oil Demand (China): Monthly data on the apparent consumption of fuel oil in China.
LSFO Demand (China Ports): Actual consumption data for low-sulfur fuel oil at Chinese ports.

Inventory Analysis

Global Fuel Oil Inventory

Singapore: Inventory levels for both high and low sulfur fuel oil.
Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp: Regional inventory data.
Fujairah: Fuel oil inventory data.
United States: Inventory levels in the US market.

Price & Spread Analysis

Asian Market

Singapore 3.5% FOB: Price data for high sulfur fuel oil.
Singapore 0.5% FOB: Price data for low sulfur fuel oil.
Fujairah 3.5% FOB: Price data for high sulfur fuel oil in Fujairah.
Fujairah 0.5% FOB: Price data for low sulfur fuel oil in Fujairah.

European Market

NWE (North-West Europe) 3.5% FOB: Fuel oil prices in the region.
Mediterranean 3.5% FOB: Prices in the Mediterranean region.
NWE 0.5% FOB: Low sulfur fuel oil prices in the region.
Mediterranean 0.5% FOB: Prices for low sulfur fuel oil in the Mediterranean.

American Market

USGC 0.5% FOB: Fuel oil prices in the US Gulf Coast.
New York Harbour 3.5% FOB: Prices for high sulfur fuel oil in New York.
USAC Low Sulphur Straight-run Fuel Oil FOB: Prices for low sulfur fuel oil in the US.

OTC Swap Market

NWE 3.5% Swap: Swap prices for high sulfur fuel oil in the European market.
NWE 0.5% Swap: Swap prices for low sulfur fuel oil.
Singapore 3.5% Swap: Swap prices for high sulfur fuel oil in Singapore.
Singapore 0.5% Swap: Swap prices for low sulfur fuel oil in Singapore.

Chinese Future Market

FU Main Contract Close Price: Prices for the main contract of high sulfur fuel oil futures.
FU Next-Month Contract Close Price: Prices for the next-month contract.
LU Front-Month Contract Close Price: Prices for the front-month contract of low sulfur fuel oil futures.
LU Next-Month Contract Close Price: Prices for the next-month contract.

Physical Market Spreads

HSFO - LSFO FOB Price Spread (Singapore): Indicates the price difference between high and low sulfur fuel oil in Singapore.
Viscosity Spread (Singapore): Reflects the spread based on viscosity differences.

Global Fuel Oil Crack

Singapore HSFO Crack: Indicates the cost of producing high sulfur fuel oil.
NWE HSFO Crack: Crack prices for high sulfur fuel oil in the European market.
Singapore LSFO Crack: Crack prices for low sulfur fuel oil.
NWE LSFO Crack: Crack prices for low sulfur fuel oil in the European market.

Global Fuel Oil Swap's Term Structure

Singapore HSFO Calendar Spread: Term structure data for high sulfur fuel oil swaps.
NWE HSFO Calendar Spread: Term structure data for high sulfur fuel oil swaps in the European market.
Singapore LSFO Calendar Spread: Term structure data for low sulfur fuel oil swaps.
NWE LSFO Calendar Spread: Term structure data for low sulfur fuel oil swaps in the European market.

Import & Export Analysis

Chinese Market

Monthly Import Amount (Fuel Oil): Data on the monthly import of fuel oil.
Monthly Export Amount (Fuel Oil): Data on the monthly export of fuel oil.
Weekly Global Import & Export (HSFO): Weekly import and export data for high sulfur fuel oil.
Weekly Global Import & Export (LSFO): Weekly import and export data for low sulfur fuel oil.

Domestic and Overseas Spot Market Spreads

Zhoushan - Singapore 380cst: Price differences between domestic and international markets.
Zhoushan - Singapore 0.5%: Price differences for low sulfur fuel oil.
FUM - 380cst MOPS: Price differences between futures and spot markets.
LUM - Singapore 0.5%: Price differences for low sulfur fuel oil futures and spot markets.

Trading Volume and Open Interest

FU/LU Trading Volume and Open Interest: Data on trading volume and open interest for high and low sulfur fuel oil futures, including FUM, LUM00, LUM01, LUM02, FUM01, FUM02, etc.

Warehouse Warrant Volume

FU Warrant: Warehouse warrant volume for high sulfur fuel oil futures.
LU Warrant: Warehouse warrant volume for low sulfur fuel oil futures.

Disclaimer and Copyright Notice

This report is for professional investors only and does not constitute investment advice.
The company does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information.
The report is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced, copied, or distributed without written permission.
The views and analysis in this report are based on the author's professional understanding and are independent, objective, and fair.

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