20251130-国泰期货-Fuel_Oil_Market_Report_Weekly_35页_3mb

Fuel Oil Market Report Summary

• Overview: Fuel oil prices declined early in the week but rebounded slightly by the weekend. High Sulfur Fuel Oil (HSFO) exports from the Middle East, particularly from Saudi Arabia and Iran, increased, but Saudi Arabia's maintenance ending may limit short-term weakness. Russia's export declines and spot goods stockpiling could support HSFO prices. Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (LSFO) saw reduced supply due to refinery maintenance in Brazil and Europe, potentially easing next month and increasing market pressure. Spot trading premiums dropped, with possible further declines as supply stabilizes.

• Valuation and Strategy: HSFO (FU) remains weak in the short term, while Low Sulfur (LU) stays strong. The monthly difference (contango) returned but is unlikely to reverse. The FU/LU fragmentation may decrease, with the price difference short-term declining. HSFO prices face support from Russia's limited supply flow.

• Global Dynamics: Global refinery maintenance, particularly in CDU and FCC units, impacted production. Asian demand was partly met by imports, with inventory levels affecting prices. European and American markets showed mixed trends in HSFO and LSFO prices, influenced by regional demand and supply shifts.

• Risks and Outlook: Key risks include Middle East and Latin American geopolitical issues, US-China trade negotiations, and global economic factors. Short-term outlook sees FU maintaining weakness, while LU could be strong. Supply recovery in LSFO may strain markets, with inventory and futures data suggesting potential price adjustments.

• Chinese Market: Imported HSFO and LSFO volumes fluctuate, with slight declines in price spreads. Chinese future markets show low trading volumes for some contracts, reflecting reduced activity, and spot price differences with overseas markets are narrowing. Geopolitical risks and economic factors in China influence import/export dynamics.