> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Fuel Oil Market Report Weekly GTJA Futures Research Institute Kefang Liang (Analyst) Advisory Code : Z0019111 Date: 2026年1月18日 # CONTENTS Summary Summary Supply Refinery Utilization Global Refinery Maintenance Production and Supply Demand Global Fuel Oil Demand Inventory Global Fuel Oil Inventory Price & Spread Asian Market European Market American Market OTC Swap Market Chinese Future Market Spread in Physical market Global Fuel Oil Crack Global Fuel Oil Swap's Term Structure Import & Export Chinese Market Weekly Global Import and Export amount: HSFO Weekly Global Import and Export amount: LSFO # Summary 1 # Summary <table><tr><td>View</td><td>Recently, fuel oil price fluctuations both domestically and internationally have continued to widen, with trends of increase and decrease reversing back and forth. In terms of HSFO, exports from Saudi Arabia and Iraq remain high, while Venezuela's heavy crude oil supply to the US Gulf has gradually resumed. Additionally, the geopolitical conflict in Iran has gradually subsided, and the short-term HSFO market is expected to return to a weak state. However, recent signs indicate a decline in Russian HSFO exports, potentially providing support for the lower side of the market. In terms of LSFO, despite the gradual resumption of production at the Al Zour refinery and the increasing exports from Japan in the near future, there are still some favorable factors in the LSFO market. Firstly, some Brazilian exports show signs of decline compared to the previous month, and the maintenance of the Dangote refinery will conclude in January, leading to a gradual decrease in subsequent exports. Additionally, as gasoline and diesel cracks in Europe remains high, refineries are expected to introduce more heavy distillates into the processing pool, resulting in relatively limited overall exports of LSFO products. In the short term, there is still support at the bottom of the LSFO market, making it difficult for it to show significant weakness.</td></tr><tr><td>Valuation</td><td>FU: 2400~2550LU: 2900~3150</td></tr><tr><td>Strategy</td><td>1) Fuel oil prices have entered a short-term high volatility environment, but the direction of increase or decrease is currently unclear.2) The monthly difference structure between FU and LU has returned to contango, and it is difficult to reverse under loose supply conditions.3) There is a possibility of further decline in FU/LU fragmentation; The LU-FU price difference will gradually decline in the short term.</td></tr><tr><td>Risk</td><td>Middle East and Latin American geopolitical conflicts; China US trade negotiations</td></tr></table> # Supply # 02 # Refinery Utilization # CDU Utilization of Chinese Refineries 原油：常减压：产能利用率：中国炼厂（周） # CDU Utilization of Chinese State-owned Refineries 原油：主营炼厂：产能利用率：中国（周） # CDU Utilization of Chinese Independent Refineries Source: Bloomberg, Platts, Kpler, iFinD, Ganglian Data, GTJA Research # Global Refinery Maintenance Global Maintenance: CDU 全球CDU装置检修量 Global Maintenance: Hydrocracker 全球加氢裂化装置检修量 Global Maintenance: FCC 全球FCC装置检修量 Global Maintenance: Coker 全球焦化装置检修量 Source: Bloomberg, Platts, Kpler, iFinD, Ganglian Data, GTJA Research # Production and Supply # Fuel oil Production amount: China 燃料油：产量：中国（月） # Merchandise amount: China 燃料油：商品量：中国（月） # LSFO Production amount: China 燃料油：低硫：中国炼厂：产量（月） # Demand # 03 # Global Fuel Oil Demand Bunker Fuel Sales amount: Singapore Source: Bloomberg, Platts, Kpler, iFinD, Ganglian Data, GTJA Research Fuel Oil Demand : China LSFO Demand in ports: China # Inventory # 04 # Global Fuel Oil Inventory Fuel Inventory: Singapore 新加坡重质油库存（千桶） Fuel Inventory: Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp 欧洲ARA燃料油库存 Fuel Inventory: Fujairah 富查伊拉重质馏分油库存 Fuel Inventory: United States 库存：残余燃料油：美国：当周值 Source: Bloomberg, Platts, Kpler, iFinD, Ganglian Data, GTJA Research # Price & Spread # 05 # Asian Market Singapore $3.5\%$ 380CST FOB 新加坡3.5%燃料油FOB价格 Fujairah $3.5\%$ 380CST FOB 富查伊拉3.5%燃料油FOB价格 Singapore 0.5% 380CST FOB 新加坡0.5%燃料油FOB价格 Fujairah 0.5% 380CST FOB 富查伊拉0.5%燃料油FOB价格 Source: Bloomberg, Platts, Kpler, iFinD, Ganglian Data, GTJA Research # European Market NWE $3.5\%$ 380CST FOB 西北欧3.5%燃料油FOB价格 Mediterranean $3.5\%$ 380CST FOB 地中海3.5%燃料油FOB价格 NWE $0.5\%$ 380CST FOB 西北欧1%燃料油FOB价格 Mediterranean 0.5% 380CST FOB 地中海1%燃料油FOB价格 Source: Bloomberg, Platts, Kpler, iFinD, Ganglian Data, GTJA Research # American Market USGC 0.5% 380CST FOB 美湾3.5%燃料油FOB价格 USGC 0.5% Fuel Oil FOB New York Harbour $3.5\%$ 380CST FOB cargo 纽约港高硫燃料油cargo价格 USAC Low Sulphur Straight-run Fuel Oil FOB 美湾0.5%燃料油FOB价格 USAC低硫直馏燃料油价格 Source: Bloomberg, Platts, Kpler, iFinD, Ganglian Data, GTJA Research # OTC Swap Market NWE $3.5\%$ Fuel Oil Swap NWE $0.5\%$ Fuel Oil Swap Singapore $0.5\%$ Fuel Oil Swap Singapore $3.5\%$ Fuel Oil Swap Source: Bloomberg, Platts, Kpler, iFinD, Ganglian Data, GTJA Research # Chinese Future Market FU Main contract close price FU主力 FU next-month contract close price FU连二 LU front-month contract close price LU连续 LU next-month contract close price LU连一 Source: Bloomberg, Platts, Kpler, iFinD, Ganglian Data, GTJA Research # Spread in Physical market # Spread between HSFO and LSFO FOB price in Singapore Hi-5 Spread 新加坡高低硫价差 # Viscosity Spread in Singapore 新加坡粘度价差 # Global Fuel Oil Crack Singapore HSFO crack 新加坡高硫裂解价差 NWE HSFO crack 西北欧3.5%裂解价差 Singapore LSFO crack 新加坡低硫裂解价差 NWE LSFO crack 西北欧1%裂解价差 Source: Bloomberg, Platts, Kpler, iFinD, Ganglian Data, GTJA Research # Global Fuel Oil Swap's Term Structure Singapore HSFO Calendar Spread NWE HSFO Calendar Spread Singapore LSFO Calendar Spread NWE LSFO Calendar Spread Source: Bloomberg, Platts, Kpler, iFinD, Ganglian Data, GTJA Research # Import & Export # 06 # Chinese Market # Monthly Import amount: Fuel Oil 燃料油，不含生物柴油：出口数量合计：中国 （月） # Monthly Export amount: Fuel Oil 燃料油，不含生物柴油：进口数量合计：中国 （月） # Weekly Global Import and Export amount: HSFO # Weekly Global Import and Export amount: LSFO # Futures’ data and # China-Overseas Spread 07 # Overview $\diamond$ Review: During the week, fuel oil prices in the Asia-Pacific region experienced significant fluctuations. In terms of price differentials, the impact of geopolitical issues on foreign spot prices gradually subsided, while domestic futures prices gradually corrected their price differentials with overseas spot prices as the number of warehouse receipts declined. $\diamond$ Logic and Outlook: In the short term, due to the cooling down of geopolitical events, the strength of the foreign spot market has declined, and the number of warehouse receipts for FU and LU has begun to decrease. It is expected that the price difference between FU, LU, and the Singapore market will increase in the short term. <table><tr><td>Date</td><td>Zhoushan - Singapore 380cst</td><td>Zhoushan - Singapore 0.5%</td><td>FUM - 380cst MOPS</td><td>FUM01 - 380cst MOPS</td><td>LUM - Singapore 0.5%</td><td>UM01 - Singapore 0.5%</td><td>UM02 - Singapore 0.5%</td></tr><tr><td>2026/1/16</td><td>185.74955</td><td>248.69946</td><td>39.74955</td><td>39.74955</td><td>108.69946</td><td>63.69946</td><td>57.69946</td></tr><tr><td>2026/1/15</td><td>157.002438</td><td>207.149624</td><td>120.002438</td><td>120.002438</td><td>140.149624</td><td>136.149624</td><td>123.149624</td></tr><tr><td>2026/1/14</td><td>206.5228</td><td>224.442314</td><td>55.5228</td><td>55.5228</td><td>101.442314</td><td>94.442314</td><td>87.442314</td></tr><tr><td>2026/1/13</td><td>234.8981</td><td>234.05716</td><td>33.8981</td><td>33.8981</td><td>83.05716</td><td>60.05716</td><td>65.05716</td></tr><tr><td>2026/1/12</td><td>275.091628</td><td>278.178146</td><td>93.091628</td><td>93.091628</td><td>132.178146</td><td>105.178146</td><td>97.178146</td></tr></table> Source: Bloomberg, Platts, Kpler, iFinD, Ganglian Data, GTJA Research # Spread — Domestic and Overseas Spot Market Zhoushan - Singapore 380cst Zhoushan - Singapore $0.5\%$ # Spread — Overseas Spot market and Chinese Futures # FUM - 380cst MOPS FU主力-新加坡内外价差 LUM01 - 0.5 % MOPS # FUM01 - 380cst MOPS FU连一-新加坡内外价差 LUM02 - 0.5% MOPS LUM00 - 0.5% MOPS LU连续-新加坡内外价差 LU连一-新加坡内外价差 Source: Bloomberg, Platts, Kpler, iFinD, Ganglian Data, GTJA Research LU连二-新加坡内外价差 # Trading volume and Open Interest volume of FU/LU # FUM - Open Interest 燃油主手持仓量 # LUM00 - Open Interest 低硫燃油连续持仓量 # FUM - Trading Volume 燃油主连成交量 # LUM00 - Trading Volume 低硫燃油连续成交量 Source: Bloomberg, Platts, Kpler, iFinD, Ganglian Data, GTJA Research # Trading volume and Open Interest volume of FU/LU FUM01 - Open Interest 燃油连一持仓量 FUM02 - Open Interest 燃油连二持仓量 FUM01 - Trading Volume 燃油连一成交量 FUM02 - Trading Volume 燃油连二成交量 Source: Bloomberg, Platts, Kpler, iFinD, Ganglian Data, GTJA Research # Trading volume and Open Interest volume of FU/LU LUM01 - Open Interest 低硫燃油连一持仓量 LUM02 - Open Interest 低硫燃油连二持仓量 LUM01 - Trading Volume 低硫燃油连一成交量 LUM02 - Trading Volume 低硫燃油连二成交量 Source: Bloomberg, Platts, Kpler, iFinD, Ganglian Data, GTJA Research # Warehouse Warrant Volume in Exchange FU Warrant LU Warrant The company has the qualification of futures trading consulting business approved by the CSRC. 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