20260118-国泰期货-Fuel_Oil_Market_Report_Weekly_35页_3mb

Fuel Oil Market Report Weekly Summary

Core Content

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the fuel oil market, covering supply, demand, inventory, price and spread dynamics, and trade data across different regions and markets. It also includes valuation, trading strategies, and risk factors for the week of January 18, 2026.

Main Points

Supply Overview

• HSFO (High Sulfur Fuel Oil):

  • Exports from Saudi Arabia and Iraq remain high.
  • Venezuela's heavy crude oil supply to the US Gulf has gradually resumed.
  • Geopolitical conflict in Iran has subsided, leading to a weak short-term market.
  • Potential support for the lower side of the market due to a decline in Russian HSFO exports.

• LSFO (Low Sulfur Fuel Oil):

  • Al Zour refinery production is gradually resuming.
  • Japanese LSFO exports are expected to increase.
  • Brazilian exports show signs of decline.
  • Dangote refinery maintenance will end in January, leading to a gradual decrease in exports.
  • European gasoline and diesel cracks remain high, limiting LSFO exports.
  • Short-term support exists in the LSFO market, preventing significant weakness.

Demand Overview

• Global Fuel Oil Demand:
  • Bunker fuel sales in Singapore indicate fluctuating demand.
  • China's fuel oil demand is under observation, with specific port-level LSFO demand data available.
  • European demand is influenced by refining activities and product mix.

Inventory Levels

• Singapore:
  • HSFO and LSFO inventories are monitored closely.
• Amsterdam, Rotterdam, and Antwerp:
  • European fuel oil inventory levels are reported.
• Fujairah and United States:
  • Regional inventory data are analyzed for market trends.

Price & Spread Analysis

Asian Market

• Singapore HSFO and LSFO FOB prices show significant fluctuations.
• HSFO FOB price in Singapore has varied between $185.75 and $275.09 over the past week.
• LSFO FOB price in Singapore has fluctuated between $224.44 and $278.18.
• Price spread between HSFO and LSFO in Singapore remains a key indicator.

European Market

• NWE (Northwest Europe) and Mediterranean HSFO and LSFO FOB prices are also analyzed.
• Price differentials are closely watched for market direction and volatility.

American Market

• USGC (US Gulf Coast) and New York Harbour fuel oil prices are reported.
• USAC (US Atlantic Coast) low sulfur fuel oil prices are under review.

OTC Swap Market

• Swap prices for HSFO and LSFO in Singapore and Northwest Europe are provided.
• These swaps are important for understanding market expectations and price trends.

Chinese Future Market

• FU (Fuel Oil) and LU (Low Sulfur Fuel Oil) futures are analyzed for price movements and volatility.
• Valuation:
  • FU: 2400~2550
  • LU: 2900~3150
• Strategy:
  1. Fuel oil prices are in a short-term high volatility environment.
  2. The monthly difference structure between FU and LU has returned to contango.
  3. The FU/LU fragmentation may continue to decline.
• Risk:
  • Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Latin America.
  • China-US trade negotiations.

Import & Export Data

• Chinese Market:
  • Weekly import and export data for HSFO and LSFO are tracked.
  • HSFO and LSFO trade volumes are reported, indicating market activity.

Futures Market Analysis

• Trading Volume and Open Interest:

  • FU (Fuel Oil):
    • FUM (Main Contract) and FUM01 (Next-Month Contract) show varying trading volumes and open interest levels.
  • LU (Low Sulfur Fuel Oil):
    • LUM00, LUM01, and LUM02 have different open interest and trading volume trends.

• Warehouse Warrant Volume:

  • Data on warehouse warrant volume for both FU and LU are provided, indicating market liquidity and activity.

Disclaimer

• The views and information are for reference only for professional investors.
• The report does not constitute investment recommendations or advice.
• The company does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the data.
• The report is subject to change and may not reflect future market conditions.
• The copyright is owned by GTJA Futures Research, and reproduction is prohibited without written permission.

Analyst Certification

• The analyst has the necessary qualifications and ensures the data are sourced from compliance channels.
• The analysis is based on professional judgment and is independent, objective, and fair.
• The conclusions are not influenced by any third party.

Summary of Key Market Dynamics

• Volatility: Fuel oil prices are highly volatile, with unclear short-term direction.
• Supply-Demand Balance: Supply is influenced by geopolitical events and refinery maintenance, while demand is affected by refining activities and product mix.
• Price Differentials: HSFO and LSFO FOB price spreads are important for assessing market strength and direction.
• Futures Market: The Chinese futures market shows different trends in trading volume and open interest, which are crucial for market participants.

Conclusion

The fuel oil market remains dynamic and influenced by a mix of geopolitical, supply, and demand factors. While HSFO faces potential short-term support due to reduced Russian exports, LSFO maintains some resilience due to limited exports and favorable conditions. The Chinese futures market continues to show high volatility, with a focus on the FU/LU price spread and market structure. Investors should remain cautious and make decisions based on their own analysis and risk tolerance.