2025-05-29-Jefferies-2025年4月用户更新_Jio的强劲新增用户_19页_2mb

📊 Equity Research Summary: India Telecom Services - May 29, 2025

🔹 TS Market Update

• Subscriber Trends (Apr-25): The sector's active subscriber base declined by 1.5m YoM to 1,073m, following the highest quarterly addition in 1QCY25. Vodafone Idea (VIL) lost 1.1m active subscribers (17th consecutive month of declines), while Bharti lost 4.1m. Jio was the sole operator with net subscriber additions (+5.6m).
• Reported Subscribers: Increased by 1.9m YoM, with Jio (+2.6m) and Bharti (+0.2m) leading. The cumulative increase over 5 months is 10.3m. VIL continues to lose subscribers (-0.6m).
• Circle-wise Analysis: A-Circles (+0.6m) and B-Circles recorded subscriber gains despite overall YoM declines. Rural subscribers grew by 1.7m, urban by 0.3m.
• MNP Activity: Elevated at 13m in Apr-25, indicating user migration post-tariff hikes. Higher MNP correlates with increased churn and expenses for telcos.

🔹 Operator Performance

1. Jio:

   • Active Share: Gained 5.6m YoM, with strong performance in C-Circles (+2.8m). Active market share improved by 60bps (total 43%).
   • Reported Subs: +2.6m YoM, led by C-Circles.
   • Urban/Rural Split: +1.4m (urban) & +1.2m (rural) YoM.

2. Bharti:

   • Active Share: Lost 4.1m YoM, urban segment declined by 0.2m.
   • Reported Subs: +0.2m YoM.
   • Subscriber Quality: Maintained healthy share in non-active bases; urban subscribers decreased by 0.2m.

3. Vodafone Idea:

   • Subscriber Decline: Lost 1.1m active users (+ net MNP migration), with urban losses of 0.5m and rural losses of 0.2m.
   • 3G/4G: Declined by 0.8m YoM to 885m.
   • Market Share: Lost ~30bps YoM in active and ~15bps in reported base.

🔹 Key Takeaways

1. Sector Moderation: After a sharp Q1CY25 subscriber surge, Apr-25 marks the first YoM active subs decline post-record growth.
2. Jio Dominance: Continues outperforming Bharti, bolstering pricing outlook; gained ~20bps in urban and ~10bps in rural markets.
3. VIL Vulnerability: Sustained subscriber erosion aids Bharti and Jio; face of debt constraints.
4. Subscriber Migration: MNP-driven churn remains a concern for network operators.

🔹 Investment Recommendations

• Bharti Airtel (BUY: INR2,210): Top pick; sustain long-term value in India mobile business via 13.0x EV/EBITDA.
• Reliance Jio (BUY: INR1,660): Steady growth, balanced market share gains across circles.
• Vodafone Idea (DCF-based PT): Protect exposure due to persistent subscriber losses and pricing caps.

🔹 Risk Factors

• Regulatory delays in tariff hikes.
• Debt pressures on VIL.
• MNP-driven churn impacting margins.
• Slower rural/urban connectivity growth in hinterlands.

"This report reflects responsible investment insights for micro & institutional clients. Due to extensive disclosures, detailed checks via basic-screening models are required."