2025-05-20-Jefferies-哔哩哔哩（BILI）_由人工智能驱动的用户体验和货币化_10页_273kb

Bilibili (BILI / 9626 HK) - Equity Research

1. Key Takeaways

• Financial Performance (1Q25):

  • Revenue growth of 24% YoY to RMB7bn (exceeding consensus by 1.3%).
  • Mobile games revenue surged 76% YoY to RMB1.73bn.
  • Advertising revenue grew 20% YoY driven by performance-based ads and rising eCPM.
  • Non-GAAP operating profit beat estimates (RMB342.5M) due to lower-than-expected S&M.
  • Average daily users (DAU) reached 106.7M with 4.2% YoY growth.

• AI Integration:

  • Leverages its extensive video content library (106.7M DAU) for training multimodal AI models.
  • AI enhances content discovery and monetization efficiency, with 30% of performance ads generated via AIGC.

• Forward Outlook (2Q25):

  • Revenue expected to grow ~20% YoY to RMB7.3bn.
  • Mobile games to contribute ~22% of revenue (driven by upcoming S8 tournament).
  • Advertising growth driven by user traffic, ad load, and eCPM.

2. Analyst Ratings and Valuation

• Recommendation: "Buy" with updated price target of $29.00 (+61% upside).
• Growth Targets:
  • Price-to-Sales valuation at ~35x (vs. ~30x prior).
  • Analysts highlight Gen Z entertainment market capture, user growth & AI monetization.
• Risks: Slower user growth, competition, unsuccessful game releases, aggressive spending, regulatory changes.

3. Investment Thesis

Bilibili is positioned to capitalize on Gen Z entertainment demand through:

• Strong user engagement (26-yr avg age) and premium content focus.
• Diversification into live-streaming, VAS, and advertising.
• Strategic backing from Tencent & Alibaba.

4. Financial Projections

• Revenue (2024-2026): CAGR of ~15% (MM RMB43.0Bn to 64.4Bn).
• Gross Margin: Target of 40-45% (Q1 achieved 36.3%).