2025-06-04-Jefferies-有利的市场份额转移；买入Bharti_15页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of India Telecom Services Equity Research (June 4, 2025)

Market Dynamics: Despite slower market share gains for Jio in FY25, the overall sector revenue grew 13% YoY, driven by higher average revenue per user (ARPU) from recent tariff hikes. Jio captured nearly 95% of incremental revenue while expanding its subscriber base, but Bharti demonstrated stable financial performance with a 17% YoY revenue growth, supported by higher ARPU (around 14%) and strong subscriber additions, particularly in non-traditional areas.
Competitive Landscape: Vodafone Idea (VIL) experienced a sharp decline in market share due to intensified competition. Compared to VIL's shrinking footprint, Jio gained market share in urban circles (A/B Circles), but lost ground in rural (C Circles), while Bharti secured leadership in metros and rural markets. This imbalance suggests a consolidation of urban dominance by Jio paired with robust expansion in hinterlands.
Macroeconomic Implications: Tariff increases taken in H1:2024 are proving effective at restoring customer retention and revenue streams. The industry’s outlook over FY25–27 projects a 14% CAGR, implying continued growth despite consolidation risks. However, concerns remain over competition risks for Bharti stemming from Jio’s ability to drive affordable connectivity.
Valuation & Recommendations: Jefferies maintains a Buy recommendation for Bharti Airtel, valuing stock at Rs. 2,370 based on an EV/EBITDA multiple. The investment thesis emphasizes Bharti’s superior market share gains, especially in metros and rural areas, underpinned by 5G monetization potential. A key risk factor is whether Bharti can sustain its growth rates against aggressive Jio strategies.
Overall, the analysis confirms India Telecom Services as a bull market where scale and affordability both matter. While sector revenue momentum remains intact, the competitive equilibrium is shifting, creating distinct opportunities and risks for different segments.