2023-06-08-世界银行-2023年6月全球经济展望报告_186页_5mb

Global Economic Prospects Summary - June 2023

Core Content

The Global Economic Prospects report for June 2023 provides an analysis of the current and future state of the global economy, with a focus on the challenges faced by emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), low-income countries (LICs), and the impact of U.S. interest rate hikes. It outlines the global outlook, regional projections, and policy implications for achieving macroeconomic and financial stability.

Main Points

Global Outlook

• Growth Trends: After a 3.1% growth in 2022, global growth is projected to slow to 2.1% in 2023 due to continued monetary tightening to control inflation. A modest recovery is expected in 2024, reaching 2.4%.
• Inflation: Inflation remains high and is expected to decline gradually as demand weakens and commodity prices moderate, provided long-term inflation expectations stay anchored.
• Financial Conditions: Tight global financial conditions and weak external demand will weigh on EMDE growth. The risk of more widespread banking stress could further weaken growth.
• Potential Growth: Potential growth is expected to fall to a three-decade low over the remainder of the 2020s, driven by a slowdown in productivity, trade, labor force, and investment growth.

Regional Outlooks

• East Asia and Pacific (EAP): Expected to grow in 2023 due to China's reopening and improved growth prospects in large economies. Growth may moderate in 2024.
• Europe and Central Asia (ECA): Projected to grow in 2023, but growth is expected to moderate in 2024. The lingering effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine will continue to weigh on the region.
• Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC): Growth is expected to weaken in 2023 due to weak external demand, tight financial conditions, and high inflation. A moderate recovery is anticipated in 2024.
• Middle East and North Africa (MNA): Growth is expected to moderate in both 2023 and 2024, with similar challenges affecting the region.
• South Asia (SAR): Growth is expected to slow in 2023, with a moderate recovery in 2024.
• Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA): Growth is projected to weaken in 2023, with risks of further decline due to external shocks and weak domestic conditions.

Financial Spillovers of Rising U.S. Interest Rates

• Impact on EMDEs: Sharp U.S. interest rate hikes are associated with higher financial stress in EMDEs, especially those with greater economic vulnerabilities.
• Shocks Types: The report differentiates between real, inflation, and reaction shocks, with reaction shocks (changes in perceptions of the Fed's policy) having the most adverse effects.
• Policy Implications: Central banks should communicate clearly to mitigate spillovers, while EMDEs need to strengthen prudential standards, currency reserves, and financial systems to reduce the risk of contagion.

Fiscal Policy Challenges in Low-Income Countries

• Fiscal Space: Low-income countries face increasingly constrained fiscal space due to rising debt levels and high interest payments, which now consume over one-fifth of their revenues.
• Debt Distress: As of February 2023, 14 out of 28 LICs were in debt distress or at high risk of it.
• Policy Needs: To improve fiscal sustainability, LICs need to enhance tax collection, improve spending efficiency, and better manage debt. Domestic institutional reforms and global coordination are essential.

Key Information

• Global Growth: Projected to slow to 2.1% in 2023 and 2.4% in 2024.
• Inflation: Expected to remain above target levels for most inflation-targeting central banks by end-2024.
• EMDE Vulnerabilities: EMDEs are particularly vulnerable to U.S. interest rate hikes, which can trigger financial crises and reduce growth.
• LIC Challenges: LICs have limited fiscal capacity to support vulnerable populations and are at risk of deeper economic decline.
• Policy Recommendations:
  1. Mitigate financial contagion through clear communication and gradual policy adjustments.
  2. Reduce domestic vulnerabilities by improving prudential standards, currency reserves, and financial institutions.
  3. Restore fiscal sustainability through improved tax collection, spending efficiency, and debt management.
  4. Reinvigorate long-term growth by promoting productivity, strengthening health systems, and enhancing labor participation.
  5. Alleviate debt distress and strengthen the global financial safety net through international cooperation and reform.

Risks to the Outlook

• Financial Stress: Possible further global financial stress could lead to weaker growth.
• Persistent Inflation: More persistent inflation pressures may result in tighter-than-expected monetary policy.
• Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing tensions, conflict, and natural disasters linked to climate change pose significant downside risks.
• Debt Distress: The rising number of countries in debt distress requires urgent attention and international support.

Conclusion

The global economy is facing a challenging environment, marked by prolonged negative shocks from the pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and aggressive monetary tightening. EMDEs and LICs are particularly vulnerable, with limited fiscal space and heightened risks of financial crises. The report calls for comprehensive policy action at both global and national levels to ensure macroeconomic and financial stability. This includes improving fiscal management, strengthening financial systems, and fostering international cooperation to address climate change and debt relief.