世界银行-世界经济展望（2023年6月）（英）-2023.6-183页

Global Economic Prospects - June 2023 Summary

Core Content

The Global Economic Prospects report for June 2023 provides an in-depth analysis of the current state and future outlook of the global economy, with a focus on the challenges faced by emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) and low-income countries (LICs). The report highlights the ongoing impact of the pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the tightening of global monetary policy, which have collectively contributed to a fragile economic environment. It also outlines key policy challenges and recommendations for fostering stability and growth.

Main Points

Global Outlook

• Growth Projections:

  • Global growth is expected to slow from 3.1% in 2022 to 2.1% in 2023, followed by a modest recovery to 2.4% in 2024.
  • EMDEs are expected to face continued weakness due to tight global financial conditions and subdued external demand.
  • Inflation remains high, with expectations of gradual decline as demand weakens and commodity prices moderate, provided inflation expectations stay anchored.

• Risks:

  • Widespread banking sector stress and more persistent inflation could lead to even weaker growth.
  • Potential growth is projected to fall to a three-decade low by the end of the 2020s due to a slowdown in productivity, trade, labor force, and investment growth.
  • Long-term risks include geopolitical tensions, conflict, social unrest, and climate-related natural disasters.

Regional Outlooks

• East Asia and Pacific (EAP):

  • Expected to grow in 2023 due to China's reopening and improved growth prospects in large economies.
  • Growth is projected to moderate in 2024, but it will be stronger than other regions.

• Europe and Central Asia (ECA):

  • Growth is expected to remain stable in 2023, but the lingering impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will continue to weigh on the economy.
  • Growth is projected to moderate in 2024.

• Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC):

  • Growth is expected to remain weak in 2023 due to high inflation, tight financial conditions, and weak external demand.
  • Growth is forecast to moderate in 2024.

• Middle East and North Africa (MNA):

  • Growth is expected to remain subdued in 2023.
  • Growth is projected to moderate in 2024.

• South Asia (SAR):

  • Growth is expected to remain weak in 2023.
  • Growth is projected to moderate in 2024.

• Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA):

  • Growth is expected to remain weak in 2023.
  • Growth is projected to moderate in 2024.

Financial Spillovers of Rising U.S. Interest Rates

• Impact on EMDEs:

  • The rapid rise in U.S. interest rates poses a significant challenge to EMDEs.
  • Reaction shocks from the Federal Reserve have led to adverse financial market effects, including an increased risk of financial crises in EMDEs.
  • These effects are more pronounced in EMDEs with greater economic vulnerabilities.

• Policy Implications:

  • Major central banks should communicate their policies clearly to reduce financial spillovers.
  • EMDEs need to adjust their macroeconomic and financial policies to mitigate the impact of rising interest rates.

Fiscal Policy Challenges in Low-Income Countries

• Fiscal Constraints:

  • Fiscal policy room has narrowed for LICs due to rising debt and widening deficits.
  • Revenue weakness, especially from grants and income tax, has exacerbated fiscal pressures.
  • As of end-February 2023, 14 out of 28 LICs were in debt distress or at high risk.

• Policy Recommendations:

  • Increase revenues through better tax collection and economic diversification.
  • Improve spending efficiency and debt management practices.
  • Strengthen domestic institutional frameworks and support global policy coordination to address debt challenges and foster stability.

Key Information

• Data Cutoff: May 30, 2023.
• License: Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO.
• Report Authors: The report is a product of the World Bank Group, with contributions from various teams and experts.
• Main Challenges:
  • High inflation and tight monetary policy.
  • Financial spillovers from U.S. interest rate hikes.
  • Fiscal sustainability and debt distress in LICs.
  • Long-term potential growth decline due to structural issues.

Policy Challenges and Recommendations

• Global and Regional Policy:

  • The need for global financial regulatory reform to address recent bank failures.
  • International cooperation to accelerate the clean energy transition and provide debt relief.
  • A renewed focus on macroeconomic and financial stability to avoid a lost decade of growth.

• National Policy:

  • Implement credible policies to contain inflation and ensure financial stability.
  • Undertake reforms to support a robust, sustainable, and inclusive development path.
  • Improve fiscal policy management and address debt challenges through better domestic institutional frameworks and global policy coordination.

Conclusion

The global economy faces significant challenges, with EMDEs and LICs particularly vulnerable. The report emphasizes the need for comprehensive and coordinated policy actions to restore stability and foster growth, both at the national and global levels. Addressing these challenges is critical to achieving global development goals such as poverty eradication, climate change mitigation, and sustainable development.