世界银行-《全球经济展望》，2024年6月（英）-220页_6mb

2024 Global Economic Prospects Summary

Core Content

The Global Economic Prospects report for June 2024 provides a comprehensive overview of the global economic outlook, regional developments, and policy challenges, particularly focusing on emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) and small states. It highlights the ongoing economic recovery post-pandemic, the role of public investment, and the fiscal challenges faced by vulnerable economies.

Main Views

Global Outlook

• Global Growth:
  • Projected to stabilize at 2.6% in 2024, the first time in three years it has held steady despite rising geopolitical tensions and high interest rates.
  • Expected to increase slightly to 2.7% in 2025-2026 with modest trade and investment growth.
• Global Inflation:
  • Moderate at 3.5% for 2024, slower than previously expected.
  • Central banks in both advanced and EMDEs are likely to remain cautious in easing monetary policy.
• Interest Rates:
  • Expected to remain significantly higher than the 2000-19 average, averaging 4% through 2026.
• Global Risks:
  • Remain tilted to the downside, with potential for volatility due to geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation, and prolonged high interest rates.
  • Some upside potential exists if inflation moderates faster than expected or if U.S. growth exceeds forecasts.

Regional Outlooks

• East Asia and Pacific:
  • Growth is expected to slow, mainly due to moderating Chinese growth.
• Europe and Central Asia:
  • Growth is projected to decelerate due to slowdowns in major economies.
• Latin America and the Caribbean:
  • Growth is set to decelerate as well.
• Middle East and North Africa (MENA):
  • Growth is expected to pick up this year, though less robustly than previously forecast.
• South Asia:
  • Growth is projected to be strong, with India leading the region.
• Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA):
  • Growth is also expected to pick up, though with challenges.

Key Challenges

• Slow Growth:
  • Global growth is expected to be 0.5 percentage points below the 2010-19 average, with EMDE growth slowing from 4.2% in 2023 to 4% in 2024-2025.
  • Many vulnerable economies are still expected to be poorer than before the pandemic by the end of 2024.
• Fiscal Pressures:
  • EMDEs face persistent inflation and high debt-servicing costs.
  • Small states, in particular, are at high risk of debt distress, with two-fifths of EMDE small states already in or at risk of debt distress.

Key Information

Public Investment

• Role in Growth:
  • Public investment is a powerful policy lever for EMDEs, capable of boosting GDP and encouraging private investment.
  • A 1% increase in public investment relative to GDP can lead to a 1.5% increase in GDP over the medium term.
  • It can also lead to a 2% increase in private investment over five years.
• Efficiency and Fiscal Space:
  • Countries with fiscal space and efficient public spending benefit most.
  • Policy reforms are needed to improve public investment efficiency, including strengthening governance and fiscal administration.
  • Fiscal space can be created through revenue and expenditure measures.

Small States

• Fiscal Vulnerability:
  • Small states face chronic fiscal difficulties, exacerbated by climate-related natural disasters and geopolitical shocks.
  • Two-fifths of EMDE small states are at high risk of debt distress or already in it.
• Recommendations:
  • Stabilize revenue sources by expanding tax bases.
  • Improve spending efficiency, especially in health, education, and infrastructure.
  • Establish robust fiscal frameworks to manage frequent shocks.
  • Global support is critical for funding climate resilience and other priorities.

Conclusion

The report underscores the importance of international cooperation, fiscal discipline, and structural reforms to support sustainable growth and development. While global growth is stabilizing, it remains below historical averages, and EMDEs and small states are particularly vulnerable. The role of public investment and fiscal policy is central to addressing these challenges and advancing shared prosperity.

Policy Recommendations

• Global Level:
  • Safeguard trade and support green and digital transitions.
  • Deliver debt relief and improve food security.
• National Level:
  • EMDEs should focus on price stability and fiscal sustainability.
  • Structural reforms are needed to raise productivity, improve public investment efficiency, and build human capital.

Summary of Key Statistics

• Global GDP Growth: 2.6% in 2024, 2.7% in 2025-2026.
• Global Inflation: 3.5% in 2024.
• Interest Rates: Expected to average 4% through 2026.
• EMDE Growth: 4.2% in 2023, 4% in 2024-2025.
• Fragile and Conflict-Affected Economies: Over half are expected to be poorer than pre-pandemic levels in 2024.
• Public Investment Impact:
  • 1.5% GDP increase over medium term with 1% GDP increase in public investment.
  • 2% increase in private investment over five years.

Appendix Highlights

• Data and Forecast Conventions:
  • Includes GDP forecasts, trade data, and inflation trends.
• Tables and Figures:
  • Summarize regional growth, fiscal positions, and public investment dynamics.
  • Highlight the role of domestic revenue mobilization, expenditure efficiency, and fiscal frameworks.

Final Remarks

The Global Economic Prospects report serves as a critical tool for policymakers to understand current economic conditions and future challenges. It calls for coordinated global action, domestic policy reforms, and fiscal responsibility to ensure long-term stability and growth.