20151103-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_377kb

报告摘要

Regional Oil & Gas Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the regional oil and gas market dynamics and investment ratings for key companies as of 2 November 2015. It includes price movements, market analysis, and analyst recommendations for various regions, including China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam. It also features valuations and financial metrics for both oil and gas producers and oil-service companies.

Main Price Movements

Brent Crude Oil: Remained unchanged at USD49.56/b.
WTI Crude Oil: Fell by 1.0% to USD46.14/b.
Dubai Fateh Spot: Rose by 1.4% to USD46.23/barrel.
China Daqing Spot: Rose by 0.9% to USD42.80/barrel.
NYMEX Henry Hub: Fell by 2.8% to USD2.26/MMBtu.
LNG Northeast Asia CFR: Rose by 0.9% to USD7.13/MMBtu.
Singapore 92 RON Spot: Fell by 2.3% to USD57.54/barrel.
Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot: Rose by 1.7% to USD59.21/gallon.
3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot: Rose by 2.4% to USD248.61/mt.
Gold: Fell by 0.7% to USD1,133.84/Oz.
USD-CNY: Rose by 0.3% to 6.34.
DJI: Rose by 0.9% to 17,828.76.
S&P 500: Rose by 1.2% to 2,104.05.

Key News Headlines

Oil slips on China data, Russian output; gasoline weighs too (Reuters)
- Oil prices fell due to soft Chinese factory data and record high Russian crude output.
- Gasoline prices also dropped due to expectations of higher U.S. refinery output.
China sets 2016 non-state crude import quotas at 1.8 mil b/d, down slightly from 2015 (Platts)
- China's 2016 non-state crude import quotas are set at 1.76 million b/d.
- These quotas amount to 26% of China's overall average imports.
Noble Energy's key Gulf of Mexico fields come online, quick ramp-ups eyed (Platts)
- Noble Energy's two fields came online ahead of schedule and are expected to reach peak production soon.
- The fields are expected to deliver 45,000 b/d of oil equivalent at peak.
Gas price plunge casts long shadow (Upstream)
- The significant drop in U.S. natural gas prices could affect onshore oil producers.
- Most U.S. onshore producers are actually natural gas producers with oil as a secondary product.
Inside FERC November US natural gas average falls 32 cents to $2.06/MMbtu (Platts)
- The November bidweek national average price for natural gas dropped to $2.06/MMBtu.
- The Henry Hub price fell to $2.03/MMBtu.

Our Latest Reports

Sinopec

Rating: Buy
Key Points:
- Reported a 47.8% drop in net profit for the first 9 months of 2015.
- Strong cash generation and debt restructuring.
- Dividend payment is expected to be no less than 30% of net profit.

NewOcean Energy

Rating: Buy
Key Points:
- Terminated JV with Sinopec, no financial impact.
- Accelerated auto LNG development with JVs with 5 other parties.
- 6 permanent stations expected by end of 2016.
- Price target: HKD7.70.

Petronas Gas

Rating: Hold
Key Points:
- 9M15 net profit included a large forex loss.
- Core profit slightly ahead due to lower taxes.
- QoQ core earnings growth is a base effect.
- Target price: MYR24.00.

PetroChina

Rating: Sell
Key Points:
- Reported its lowest quarterly earnings in history, down 81% YoY.
- 3Q15 might not be the bottom; 4Q15 could see losses.
- FY15 estimate is 33% below consensus.
- Target price: HKD4.8.

Company Valuations (Asia)

Company	Ticker	Rating	Price (29-Oct)	Target Price	Mkt Cap (USD b)	90D T/O (USD m)	PER 2015E	PER 2016E	EV/EBITDA 2015E	EV/EBITDA 2016E	ROE %	P/BV (x)	Yield (%)
PetroChina - H	857 HK	Sell	5.99	4.80	234.3	82.4	26.3	45.7	6.6	7.4	2.8	0.8	1.7
Sinopec - H	386 HK	Buy	5.53	6.00	92.7	66.9	13.4	14.6	5.8	6.1	6.5	0.9	3.6
CNOOC LTD	883 HK	Buy	8.61	11.34	49.6	91.7	16.0	19.1	4.0	4.2	5.1	0.8	4.6
New Ocean Energy	342 HK	Buy	3.13	7.70	0.6	0.8	4.4	3.6	4.2	2.9	19.0	0.8	2.3

Company Valuations (Oil-Service)

Company	Ticker	Rating	Price (28-Oct)	Target Price	Mkt Cap (USD b)	90D T/O (USD m)	PER 2015E	PER 2016E	EV/EBITDA 2015E	EV/EBITDA 2016E	ROE %	P/BV (x)	Yield (%)
COSL	2883 HK	NR	8.52	NR	9.7	12.2	14.2	11.5	12.4	10.8	4.9	0.7	0.0
Anton Oil	3337 HK	NR	1.03	NR	0.3	0.6	N/A	N/A	42.1	11.7	8.1	-3.4	0.0
SPT Energy	1251 HK	NR	0.77	NR	0.2	0.4	N/A	N/A	89.9	-7.9	7.2	-14.1	0.0
Hilong	1623 HK	NR	1.59	NR	0.3	0.4	7.4	6.4	6.4	5.8	10.2	-4.9	0.0
Honghua	196 HK	NR	0.61	NR	0.3	0.3	N/A	N/A	166.2	9.9	-2.0	-14.1	0.0
Bumi Armada	BAB MK	Buy	0.98	1.20	1.3	3.9	28.6	25.7	10.2	10.4	3.1	0.9	0.0
Barakah Offshore	BARAKAH MK	Hold	0.95	0.75	0.2	0.2	33.0	12.7	10.9	5.7	6.8	1.9	0.0
Dialog	DLG MK	Buy	1.63	1.90	1.9	2.8	28.8	30.9	27.3	29.2	15.9	4.1	1.4
KNM	KNMG MK	Buy	0.53	1.00	0.2	4.0	7.6	6.4	5.6	4.5	5.1	0.4	0.0
MMHE	MMHE MK	Hold	1.11	1.32	0.4	0.4	12.8	14.9	7.3	7.2	5.1	0.6	0.0
Perdana Petroleum	PETR MK	Buy	1.54	1.70	0.3	0.1	19.2	9.2	14.2	9.3	8.6	1.6	0.0
Petra Energy	PENB MK	NR	1.27	NR	0.1	0.1	13.1	9.5	7.4	7.2	6.2	0.8	2.0

Key Information

Market Conditions: Oil prices were under pressure due to soft Chinese data and high Russian output, while natural gas prices in the U.S. fell significantly.
Investment Outlook: Sinopec and NewOcean Energy were recommended as "Buy", while PetroChina was rated "Sell".
Valuation Metrics: Financial metrics such as PER, EV/EBITDA, and P/BV are provided for various companies, with some under review (NR) or not rated (UR).
Focus on Natural Gas: The document emphasizes the impact of falling natural gas prices on U.S. onshore producers and highlights the importance of gas in their operations.
Regional Coverage: Includes analysis for multiple Asian countries, as well as some in the Middle East and other regions, with a focus on both production and service sectors.

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