20151002-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_745kb

报告摘要

Regional Oil & Gas Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the regional oil and gas market as of 1 October 2015, including price movements, news headlines, and analyst reports. It covers key developments in the oil and gas sectors across Asia, highlighting the performance of various companies and market trends.

Main Price Movements

Brent Crude Oil: Remained unchanged at USD48.37/b.
WTI Crude Oil: Fell by 0.8% to USD44.74/b.
Dubai Fateh Spot: Increased by 7.2% to USD47.21/b.
China Daqing Spot: Rose by 12.2% to USD43.32/b.
NYMEX Henry Hub: Dropped by 3.6% to USD2.43/MMBtu.
LNG Northeast Asia CFR: Increased by 12.2% to USD6.71/MMBtu.
Singapore 92 RON Spot: Rose by 1.5% to USD59.82/b.
Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot: Increased by 1.5% to USD59.54/b.
3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot: Fell by 0.4% to USD236.42/mt.
Gold: Dropped by 0.1% to USD1,113.61/Oz.
USD-CNY Exchange Rate: Remained stable at 6.36.
DJI: Declined by 0.1% to 16,272.01.
S&P 500: Increased by 0.2% to 1,923.82.

News Headlines

Oil Prices Drop Due to U.S. Storm Warnings Fading
- Oil prices fell as much as 1% due to the U.S. hurricane forecast being adjusted, which reduced concerns about potential damage to oil installations.
- Hurricane Joaquin was expected to hit land 100 miles east of New York City as a tropical storm.
Shell Delays Drilling in New Zealand
- Shell postponed a deep-water exploration well in New Zealand's Great South basin, citing the need for further geological studies.
- The well was originally planned for summer 2015, and the company is in talks with New Zealand authorities for an extension.
Chinese Shale Gas Sector Benefits from Government Support
- The Chinese government has significantly reduced shale gas drilling costs, aiding the development of the sector.
- The country faces challenges in developing other natural gas resources, such as coalbed methane.
India Slashes Natural Gas Prices
- The Indian government reduced the price of natural gas for domestic producers by 18%, from USD4.66 to USD3.82 per MMBtu (gross calorific basis).
- The price cut may impact future exploration efforts.
PetroChina Cuts Crude Oil Prices
- PetroChina reduced the October prices of Daqing and Jidong crude by 5.87% for Sinopec.
- The prices for other crude supplies to Sinopec also fell by CNY64–158/tonne.

Key Analyst Reports

PetroVietnam Gas
- Lower target price (TP) to VND55,000 from VND84,500 due to revised earnings per share (EPS).
- The stock is considered oversold, and the rating is maintained at BUY.
- Another 48% of GAS' dry-gas volume will be marked to market as part of gas-price liberalization.
- The actual average selling price (ASP) impact in 2H15 depends on negotiations with industrial customers.
Yinson Holdings
- Results are in line with expectations, and the company is operationally and financially resilient in the down cycle.
- Divestment of non-oil and gas operations is expected to be completed by 4QFY1/16.
- Rating is BUY, with a TP of MYR4.35, offering a 50% upside.
China Oil & Gas
- The Volkswagen emissions scandal is unlikely to impact refiners' profitability.
- Global diesel demand is mainly driven by the commercial sector.
- Cost advantage is the key factor in determining fuel choice.
- The rating is OVERWEIGHT.
Yinson Holdings (Second Report)
- The company is growing in a down cycle, with a focus on building a war chest and new FPSO projects.
- Special dividends are likely from non-O&G divestment.
- Rating is BUY, with a TP of MYR4.35.

Regional Company Valuations

Region	Company	Ticker	Rating	Price 1-Oct	Target Price	Market Cap (USD b)	90D T/O (USD m)	PER (2015E)	PER (2016E)	EV/EBITDA (2015E)	EV/EBITDA (2016E)	ROE %	P/BV (x)	Yield (%)
China	PetroChina - H	857 HK	Sell	5.37	4.80	224.3	95.3	23.6	41.1	6.3	7.0	2.9	0.7	1.9
China	Sinopec - H	386 HK	Buy	4.71	6.00	86.8	75.8	11.4	12.4	5.3	5.6	6.5	0.8	4.3
China	CNOOC LTD	883 HK	Buy	7.93	11.70	45.7	88.2	14.6	17.2	3.8	4.0	5.1	0.7	0.9
China	New Ocean Energy	342 HK	Buy	2.92	7.70	0.6	1.0	4.1	3.3	4.0	2.7	19.0	0.7	2.4
India	ONGC	ONGC IN	NR	232.4	NR	30.3	18.1	8.4	8.3	4.4	4.0	13.3	1.1	4.2
India	Reliance Industries	RIL IN	NR	864.7	NR	42.7	53.8	11.6	10.9	10.1	8.9	11.2	1.2	1.1
India	Cairn India	CAIR IN	Hold	153.2	198.00	4.4	6.4	4.2	7.7	1.4	2.3	10.0	0.5	5.9
India	BPCL	BPCL IN	NR	855.1	NR	9.4	25.1	19.7	10.9	10.5	7.2	15.2	2.9	1.8
India	HPCL	HPCL IN	NR	776.5	NR	4.0	25.6	19.9	9.2	10.0	7.2	8.8	1.8	2.2
Japan	INTEX	1605 JT	NR	1,091	NR	13.3	55.5	18.3	25.3	2.9	3.7	3.2	0.6	1.6
Japan	JAPEX	1662 JT	NR	3,285	NR	1.6	8.1	5.4	15.3	4.8	8.2	7.7	0.4	1.5
Japan	JX Holding	5020 JT	NR	439	NR	9.1	50.3	N/A	8.6	-250.4	10.2	-15.1	0.6	3.7
Japan	Showa Shell	5002 JT	NR	951	NR	3.0	16.0	17.9	11.1	8.2	6.3	6.3	1.3	4.0
Japan	Ten General	5012 JT	NR	1,206	NR	5.7	20.2	24.3	12.8	18.3	11.9	4.5	1.7	3.2
Japan	Idemitsu	5019 JT	NR	8,500	NR	2.5	13.6	N/A	7.4	-32.4	8.4	-15.9	0.5	2.7
Japan	Cosmo	5007 JT	NR	164	NR	1.2	5.8	N/A	7.5	-177.8	10.3	-36.6	0.8	0.0
Malaysia	Gas Malaysia	GMB MK	Buy	2.48	2.65	0.7	0.2	25.8	25.7	14.5	13.9	12.2	3.1	3.9
Malaysia	Petronas Gas	PTG MK	Hold	22.14	24.00	9.9	6.9	24.2	24.0	14.5	14.2	16.7	4.0	2.9
Philippines	Petron Corp	PCOR PM	Buy	6.89	11.25	1.4	0.5	15.7	9.3	7.9	6.9	4.4	0.7	0.7
Philippines	Phoenix Petro	PNX PM	Buy	3.30	4.75	0.1	0.0	5.6	4.9	7.6	6.9	11.6	0.6	3.0
Taiwan	Formosa Petrochemical	6505 TT	NR	78.50	NR	22.8	7.2	19.7	20.9	12.4	13.0	14.7	2.8	3.6
South Korea	S-Oil	010950 KS	NR	63,300	NR	6.0	18.5	8.5	8.5	6.3	6.6	16.3	1.3	3.2
South Korea	SK Innovation	096770 KS	NR	101,000	NR	7.9	36.1	7.3	7.9	6.0	6.6	8.2	0.6	2.8
South Korea	GS Holdings	078930 KS	NR	47,450	NR	3.7	9.3	8.7	8.1	8.5	8.3	7.9	0.7	2.7
Thailand	PTT Global Chemical PCL	PTTGC TB	Buy	53.5	87.00	6.6	21.9	8.8	7.8	5.8	5.4	11.3	1.0	5.2
Thailand	PTT PCL	PTT TB	Buy	241.0	395.00	18.9	58.7	8.4	7.5	6.0	5.8	10.8	0.9	4.7
Thailand	Thai Oil PCL	TOP TB	Sell	53.3	65.00	3.0	7.9	8.9	9.2	6.3	6.2	13.3	1.2	4.7
Vietnam	PetroVietnam Gas	GAS VN	Buy	45,700	92,000	3.9	1.1	10.2	10.9	4.7	4.9	23.9	2.2	7.8

Summary of Key Points

Oil Prices: Brent remained stable, while WTI fell due to fading storm concerns.
Shale Gas in China: Government support has significantly reduced drilling costs.
India: Gas price cuts are expected to affect exploration efforts.
PetroChina: Reduced crude prices by 5.87% for October.
Yinson Holdings: Resilient in a down cycle, with a target price offering 50% upside.
PetroVietnam Gas: Target price lowered, but the rating remains BUY.
Market Trends: The Asian oil and gas market is experiencing varied performance with some companies showing growth and others facing challenges.

Analyst Contact Information

HK/CHINA: Howard Wong (852) 22680648, howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
INDIA: Jigar Shah (91) 2266232632, jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
INDONESIA: Pandu Anugrah (62) 21 2557 1137, pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
MALAYSIA: Liaw Thong Jung (603) 22978688, tjiaw@maybank-ib.com
PHILIPPINES: Michael Bengson (63) 28498840, micheal bengson@maybank-atrke.com
SINGAPORE: Yeah Chee Keong (65) 6231 5842, yeakcheeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
THAILAND: Sutthichai Kumworachai (66) 2658 6300 x 1400, sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
VIETNAM: Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (84) 844555888×8082, chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Truong Quang Binh (84) 444555888 x 8087, binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn