20151125-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_788kb

报告摘要

Regional Oil & Gas Market Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the regional oil and gas market conditions and highlights key developments in the sector as of 24 November 2015. It includes price movements, news headlines, and analyst reports for various companies across Asia, India, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam. The data is sourced from Bloomberg and Maybank KE, and it includes valuations, price targets, and financial metrics such as PER and EV/EBITDA.

Key Market Movements

Crude Oil:
- Brent remained unchanged at USD44.83/b.
- WTI rose by 2.7% to USD42.87/b.
LNG:
- Northeast Asia CFR showed a 4.3% increase.
Gasoline:
- Singapore 92 RON Spot increased by 0.4%.
- Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot rose by 0.6%.
Gold:
- Increased by 0.6% to USD1,075.65/Oz.
USD-CNY:
- Slight increase of 0.2% to 6.39.
Stock Indices:
- DJI rose by 0.1%.
- S&P 500 increased by 0.1%.

News Highlights

Oil Hits Two-Week High:
- Oil prices rose about 3% on Tuesday due to Middle East tensions and a rally in US gasoline futures.
Singapore Cracking Margin:
- Reached its widest in 32 months at USD7.46/b, driven by firmer light distillate cracks and weaker crude.
Urals Prices vs. Dated Brent:
- Differentials jumped as the Dec Novorossiisk schedule proved to be the shortest in over four years.
Sino Oil and Gas Holdings:
- Received approval for the development plan of its Shanxi Sanjiao CBM project.
NuEnergy Acquisition:
- Completed the acquisition of Dart Energy's Indonesian CBM assets for USD1 million.

Analyst Reports

Icon Offshore:
- 3Q15 adjusted net profit increased by 19% QoQ.
- Upgraded to HOLD from SELL, with a higher target price of MYR0.37.
Perisai Petroleum:
- Core performance improved due to cost-cutting measures.
- Upgraded to HOLD with a target price of MYR0.29.
Bumi Armada:
- FPSO operations are performing well, but OSV and T&I businesses are a drag.
- Reiterated BUY with an unchanged target price of MYR1.20.
Yinson Holdings:
- A growth stock with short and long-term catalysts.
- Reiterated BUY with an unchanged target price of MYR4.35.

Valuation Overview

Company	Ticker	Rating	Price (24-Nov)	Target Price	Market Cap (USD)	90D T/O (USDm)	PER 2015E	PER 2016E	EV/EBITDA 2015E	EV/EBITDA 2016E	ROE %	P/BV (x)	Yield (%)
PetroChina - H	857 HK	Sell	5.63	4.80	243.3	82.5	24.8	43.3	6.4	7.2	2.8	0.7	1.8
Sinopec - H	386 HK	Buy	5.07	6.00	94.1	69.9	12.3	13.4	5.5	5.8	6.5	0.8	3.9
CNOOC LTD	883 HK	Buy	8.55	11.34	49.3	92.5	15.9	19.1	4.0	4.2	5.1	0.8	4.6
New Ocean Energy	342 HK	Buy	3.29	7.70	0.6	0.8	4.6	3.8	4.4	3.1	19.0	0.8	2.2
ONGC	ONGC IN	NR	234.1	NR	30.3	16.4	8.4	8.7	N/A	4.4	13.3	1.1	4.2
Reliance Industries	RIL IN	NR	946.9	NR	46.3	50.1	12.7	11.5	N/A	9.4	11.2	1.4	1.0
Cairn India	CAIR IN	Hold	137.1	198.00	3.9	6.0	3.8	8.0	N/A	2.0	11.7	0.4	6.6
BPCL	BPCL IN	NR	916.1	NR	10.0	18.7	21.1	11.1	N/A	7.5	15.2	3.1	1.7
HPCL	HPCL IN	NR	800.7	NR	4.1	17.9	20.5	9.2	N/A	7.6	8.8	1.8	2.1
Petron Corp	PCOR PM	Buy	7.77	11.25	1.6	0.4	16.9	9.9	8.6	6.9	5.4	1.2	0.6
Phoenix Petro	PNX PM	Buy	3.69	4.75	0.1	0.0	6.3	5.5	7.8	7.1	11.6	0.7	2.7
S-Oil	010950 KS	NR	75,200	NR	332.2	1,219.5	20.3	19.2	8.5	8.0	9.3	1.9	3.6
SK Innovation	096770 KS	NR	124,000	NR	167.5	965.6	26.2	21.0	6.6	6.1	4.0	1.1	4.8
GS Holdings	078930 KS	NR	51,000	NR	65.3	491.8	N/A	76.4	9.9	7.5	-1.7	1.4	5.6
Shell	RDSA LN	NR	1,635	NR	159.0	20,663	13.5	15.5	5.8	5.2	10.4	1.0	6.9
BP plc	BP / LN	NR	381.30	NR	106.0	20,663	15.9	15.5	5.8	5.2	4.0	1.0	6.9
Gazprom	GAZP RX	NR	148.05	NR	54.2	73.3	2.8	2.8	2.4	2.6	9.7	0.3	4.8
Rosneft Oil	ROSNI LI	NR	4.22	NR	44.7	30.4	6.7	6.2	N/A	N/A	13.7	0.9	3.5
LUKOIL	LKOH RX	NR	2,540	NR	33.4	48.9	6.7	5.9	2.9	2.9	5.0	0.4	7.2
MOL Hungarian O&G	MOL HB	NR	13,550	NR	49.3	76.4	20.3	16.4	2.9	2.9	0.2	1.2	5.4
PetroleoBrasilheiro	PETR3 BZ	NR	9.51	NR	31.0	47.2	12.5	8.7	N/A	N/A	3.5	0.5	5.2
Total	FP FP	NR	46.26	NR	120.0	347.4	11.9	13.2	6.0	5.9	10.4	1.2	5.5
EniS.p.A.	ENI IM	NR	14.82	NR	57.3	352.2	40.7	22.9	4.9	4.2	2.0	0.9	5.5
Repsol S.A.	REP SM	NR	11.98	NR	17.8	199.8	10.7	13.5	6.7	5.9	5.2	0.5	8.3
Stateoil ASA	STL NO	NR	133.60	NR	49.3	76.4	20.3	16.4	2.9	2.9	0.2	1.2	5.4
OMV AG	OMV AV	NR	26.26	NR	9.1	14.6	8.9	12.9	4.0	4.3	6.8	0.7	4.4
GalpEnergia, SGPS, S.A.	GALP PL	NR	9.55	NR	8.4	17.0	14.1	17.8	7.4	7.1	9.7	1.5	4.1

Summary of Key Points

Oil Prices:
- Brent remained unchanged, while WTI rose by 2.7%.
- Middle East tensions and US gasoline futures contributed to the price increase.
Cracking Margins:
- Singapore cracking margin against Dubai crude hit its widest in 32 months.
Urals Differentials:
- Jumped due to a short Dec Novorossiisk schedule.
CBM Projects:
- Sino Oil and Gas and NuEnergy made progress in acquiring CBM assets.
Company Performance:
- Icon Offshore and Perisai Petroleum showed improved performance.
- Bumi Armada and Yinson Holdings were recommended as BUY.
Valuations:
- Financial metrics like PER and EV/EBITDA are provided for various companies.
- The Asian E&P average shows a positive outlook with a target price increase.

Analyst Contact Information

HK/CHINA: Howard Wong, (852) 22680648, howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
INDIA: Jigar Shah, (91) 2266232632, jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
INDONESIA: Pandu Anugrah, (62) 21 2557 1137, pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
MALAYSIA: Liaw Thong Jung, (603) 22978688, tjiaw@maybank-ib.com
PHILIPPINES: Michael Bengson, (63) 28498840, micheal bengson@maybank-atrke.com
SINGAPORE: Yeah Chee Keong, (65) 6231 5842, yeakcheeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
THAILAND: Sutthichai Kumworachai, (66) 2658 6300 x 1400, sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
VIETNAM: Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen, (84) 844555888×8082, chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Truong Quang Binh, (84) 444555888 x 8087, binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn

Notes

UR = Under Review
NR = Not Rated
All forward-looking estimates and multiples for companies not under Maybank Kim Eng's coverage are from Bloomberg consensus.
Average multiples and yields are weighted by market capitalization.

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