2023-10-26-IMF-保加利亚的通货膨胀动态_政策的作用（英）_32页_1mb

Inflation Dynamics in Bulgaria: Summary

This summary examines the key findings on Bulgaria's recent inflation dynamics and the roles of policies, based on IMF Working Paper WP/23/212.

Background and Key Findings

• Inflation in Bulgaria peaked at over 15% in 2022, driven by global factors such as supply chain disruptions, energy and food price shocks, and policy support from the COVID crisis. These factors amplified effects due to Bulgaria's higher weight of energy and food in its CPI basket.
• Common factors explain a large share of EU inflation variations, but country-specific elements, like Bulgaria's economic structure, influence transmission. Core inflation persists more strongly in Bulgaria than in the EU, indicating stronger second-round effects.

Role of Policies

• Monetary policy: ECB tightening was insufficient and poorly transmitted to Bulgaria due to weak banking sector dynamics, such as low interest rates despite policy rate hikes.
• Fiscal policy: Expansion during the COVID recovery contributed significantly to inflation, with fiscal shocks explaining up to 3 percentage points of inflation in 2022.

Policy Implications

• Tailored policies are needed to mitigate inflation risks, including stricter coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities. Joining the euro area necessitates further policy adjustments for convergence.

For detailed methodology and data, refer to the full IMF Working Paper.