20160322-新鸿基金融集团-Investment_Daily_Note_14页_2mb

报告摘要

Investment Daily Note Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive summary of the Hong Kong and mainland Chinese stock market conditions, including key indices, sector performance, stock highlights, and valuation data. It also covers external market conditions, such as interest rates, exchange rates, and commodity prices, along with information on short-selling activity and A-share premiums to H-share.

Main Points

Market Trends

Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 20,684, showing a 0.1% daily increase and a -5.6% year-to-date (YTD) decline.
HSCEI closed at 8,928, with a 0.5% daily increase and a -7.6% YTD decline.
Shanghai Composite closed at 3,019, up 2.2% daily and down 14.7% YTD.
Shenzhen Composite closed at 1,886, up 2.7% daily and down 18.3% YTD.

Market Highlights

The China Securities Finance Corporation resumed short-dated loans and cut interest rates, which is expected to support brokerages and boost investor confidence.
Tingyi (322.HK) released a profit warning, indicating a 35% to 40% drop in net profit, but its stock price has stabilized at the bottom and may rebound.

External Market Conditions

U.S. stocks rose modestly, with the Dow Jones achieving its longest winning streak since October.
Oil prices increased due to potential production slowdowns, while gold prices declined due to a stronger U.S. dollar.
ADR prices suggested a 24-point increase for the HSI.

Stock in Focus: Cheung Kong Property (1113.HK)

Last Close: HK$47.50
Entry: HK$45.00
Target: HK$57.85
Stop-loss: HK$42.90
YTD/1M/3M/12M % Change: -5.8% / 13.9% / -6.4% / #N/A
Market Cap: HK$183.33bn
3M Average Daily Volume: 6.72mn shares
FY1 Forward P/E: 10.1x

Key Insights

Cheung Kong Property is trading at a lower forward P/E than its historical average and sector median.
The company reported a 29% YoY increase in core profit in 2015, with an operating margin rising to 40%.
Revenue from property sales increased by 86% in 2015, with a significant portion coming from the Chinese market.
The company is expected to list 13 projects or 5,000 units for sale in 2016, generating HK$30bn to HK$40bn.
The company's net debt ratio dropped to 5.6%, indicating financial soundness.
On 18 March, Cheung Kong Property repurchased 0.3% of its outstanding shares, showing management confidence.

Today's Top Picks

Kader Holdings (180.HK)
- Last Close: HK$0.69
- Purchase Price: Current
- Target Price: HK$0.74
- Stop-loss Price: HK$0.65
- Reason: Expected operating profit surge and potential test of 150-day MA.
Green Energy GP (979.HK)
- Last Close: HK$0.365
- Purchase Price: Current
- Target Price: HK$0.40
- Stop-loss Price: HK$0.33
- Reason: Strong share price rally and increased turnover, with further rise expected.

Sector Performance

Best Performing Sectors

Brokerages: +8.1% (daily), +14.0% (5D), +18.5% (1M)
Consumer Staples: +2.4% (daily), +2.5% (5D), +4.3% (1M)
Handset and related accessories: +2.1% (daily), +8.6% (5D), +13.0% (1M)
Chinese Insurers: +2.1% (daily), +6.2% (5D), +8.4% (1M)
Technology: +1.9% (daily), +5.7% (5D), +7.0% (1M)
Aluminum: +1.9% (daily), +2.3% (5D), +14.7% (1M)
Sports accessories: +1.7% (daily), +2.6% (5D), +2.5% (1M)
Environmental and New Energy: +1.6% (daily), +4.9% (5D), +8.5% (1M)
Toll Road: +1.4% (daily), +2.2% (5D), +10.9% (1M)
Durable Consumables: +1.3% (daily), +5.2% (5D), +9.8% (1M)

Major Stocks in Best Performing Sectors

Brokerages: First Shanghai (227), Central China Sec. (1375), CITIC Sec. (6030), Haitong Sec. (6837), China Galaxy Sec. (6881)
Consumer Staples: Want Want (151), Uni-President (220), Tingyi (322), Hengan Int'l (1044), Sun Art Retail (6808)
Handset and related accessories: Tongda Group (698), AAC Tech (2018), Sunny Optical (2382), Coolpad Group (2369), TCL Comm (2618)
Chinese Insurers: China Taiping Ins. (966), NCI (1336), CPIC (2601), Ping An (2318), China Life (2628)
Technology: Kingdee (268), Chinasoft (354), Tencent (700), NetDragon (777), Kingsoft (3888)
Aluminum: Chalco (2600), China Hongqiao (1378), China Zhongwang (1333), RUSAL (486)
Sports accessories: 361 Degrees (1361), Xstep Int'l (1368), Peak Sport (1968), Anta Sports (2020), Li Ning (2331)
Medical: Trad Chi Med (570), Sinopharm (1099), Sino Biopharm (1177), Fosun Pharma (2196), SH Pharma (2607)
Environmental and New Energy: China EB Int'l (257), BJ Ent Water (371), China Longyuan (916), Xinyi Solar (968), CGN Power (1816)
Toll Road: Sichuan Express (107), Jiangsu Express (177), Shenzhen Express (548), Zhejiang Express (576), Anhui Expressway (995)
Durable Consumables: Welling Hldg. (382), Skyworth Digital (751), Hisense Kelon Elec (921), TCL Multimedia (1070)
Marine: OOIL (316), Sinotrans Ship (368), Cosco Pacific (1199), Pacific Basin (2343), CSCL (2866)
Airline: Cathay Pacific (293), China East Air (670), Air China (753), China South Air (1055)
Department Store: NWDS China (825), Springland (1700), Intime (1833), Golden Eagle (3308), Parkson Group (3368)
Infrastructure: China Railway (390), China Railway Cons. (1186), CSR Corp. (1766), China Comm. Cons. (1800), China Machinery Eng. (1829)

Forward P/E and Valuations of Major Indices

Index	FY16E P/E (X)	Long-term Avg. Fwd. P/E (X)	Deviation from Avg. (%)	FY1 EPS Growth (%)	FY2 EPS Growth (%)
Hang Seng Index	11.0	11.0	0.2	-11.0	11.3
HSCEI	7.1	7.9	-10.6	-5.8	9.0
Shanghai Comp	12.9	10.7	19.9	22.5	12.2
S&P 500	17.3	15.3	13.0	7.3	13.6

Market Data

Previous Day's Best and Worst Performers

Best

TIANNENG POWER (819.HK): Price HK$6.300, Daily Change 10.9%, 5D Change 19.3%, 1M Change 12.9%
GUOTAI JUNAN (1788.HK): Price HK$2.690, Daily Change 9.3%, 5D Change 13.0%, 1M Change 24.0%
LUYE PHARMA GROU (2186.HK): Price HK$5.920, Daily Change 8.6%, 5D Change 1.5%, 1M Change -8.5%
G-RESOURCES GROU (979.HK): Price HK$0.166, Daily Change 8.5%, 5D Change -1.8%, 1M Change -21.3%
CGS-H (6881.HK): Price HK$7.260, Daily Change 8.2%, 5D Change 16.0%, 1M Change 24.3%

Worst

CHINA LESSO (2128.HK): Price HK$4.770, Daily Change -7.0%, 5D Change -6.5%, 1M Change 6.5%
EMPEROR WATCH & P (887.HK): Price HK$0.184, Daily Change -5.6%, 5D Change -4.7%, 1M Change 19.5%
PETRO-KING (2178.HK): Price HK$0.540, Daily Change -5.3%, 5D Change -8.5%, 1M Change -5.3%
LIFESTYLE INTL (1212.HK): Price HK$10.120, Daily Change -4.5%, 5D Change 3.5%, 1M Change 7.5%
FUTURE LAND DEVE (1030.HK): Price HK$1.080, Daily Change -4.4%, 5D Change -0.9%, 1M Change 8.0%

HSCI Volume Filter

MAOYE INTL HLDGS (848.HK): Price HK$0.770, Daily Change -1.3%, Volume Increase 443.5%
GUOTAI JUNAN (1788.HK): Price HK$2.690, Daily Change 9.3%, Volume Increase 414.6%
CGS-H (6881.HK): Price HK$7.260, Daily Change 8.2%, Volume Increase 383.0%
DIGITAL CHINA (861.HK): Price HK$10.460, Daily Change 7.3%, Volume Increase 29.8%
TPV TECHNOLOGY (903.HK): Price HK$1.050, Daily Change -1.9%, Volume Increase 374.7%

Most Short Sold Stocks

TIAN LUN GAS (1600.HK): Price HK$5.750, Daily Change 2.7%, Shortsell Turnover 0.2%
CHINA RES GAS (1193.HK): Price HK$22.050, Daily Change 2.1%, Shortsell Turnover 54.3%
BANK EAST ASIA (23.HK): Price HK$28.500, Daily Change -0.9%, Shortsell Turnover 44.1%
SUN ART RETAIL (6808.HK): Price HK$5.180, Daily Change 0.2%, Shortsell Turnover 5.5%
WANT WANT CHINA (151.HK): Price HK$5.560, Daily Change 0.5%, Shortsell Turnover 33.7%

Interest Rates and Exchange Rates

Interest Rates

Rate	Latest (%)	5D Change (bps)	1M Change (bps)	YTD Change (bps)	y-y % Change
U.S. 2-year	0.8680	-9.61	11.80	-17.97	28.68
U.S. 10-year	1.9173	-5.26	16.55	-35.21	-1.30
U.S. 30-year	2.7192	-1.18	11.52	-29.66	21.33
HK 1-month HIBOR	0.2286	-0.20	-11.40	0.75	-0.79
HK 3-month HIBOR	0.5600	-0.57	-7.58	16.64	17.16
SH 1-month HIBOR	2.6920	3.35	-14.70	-31.00	-233.90
SH 3-month HIBOR	2.7950	0.20	-17.20	-29.02	-210.70

Exchange Rates

Currency Pair	Latest	5D % Change	1M % Change	YTD % Change	y-y % Change
USD Dollar Index	95.4290	-1.2	-2.0	-3.2	-2.5
USD/HKD	7.7537	0.1	0.2	0.0	0.0
EUR/USD	1.1235	1.1	1.9	3.5	2.6
USD/JPY	112.12	0.9	0.7	7.1	6.8
GBP/USD	1.4370	1.5	1.6	-2.5	-3.9
USD/CHF	0.9704	1.7	3.0	3.3	-0.4
AUD/USD	0.7572	1.5	4.8	3.9	-3.9
NZD/USD	0.6761	2.4	0.9	-1.1	-11.7
USD/CAD	1.3090	2.0	4.7	5.7	-4.3
USD/CNY	6.4852	0.4	0.6	0.1	-4.2
USD/CNH	6.4886	0.4	0.6	1.2	-4.4

Precious Metals and Commodities

Commodity	Latest	5D % Change	1M % Change	YTD % Change	y-y % Change
CRB Index	176.4	2.3	8.4	0.1	-17.6
Comex Gold	1,245.5	1.2	2.9	17.5	5.1
Comex Silver	15.880	4.1	4.6	15.0	-5.9
Nymex WTI Crude	41.61	14.5	32.2	12.3	-9.0
ICE Brent Crude	41.62	7.4	20.0	11.6	-24.8
LME Copper	5,064.00	2.4	9.6	7.6	-16.2
LME Aluminum	1,512.00	-2.0	-2.4	0.3	-15.8
CBT Wheat	467.50	-2.0	2.0	-0.5	-11.8
CBT Corn	369.50	0.3	0.5	3.0	-4.0
CBT Soybean	902.25	1.1	2.4	3.6	-7.3

A-Share Premium to H-Share

Company	H-Share Code	H-Share Price (HK$)	A-Share Code	A-Share Price (RMB)	A-Share Premium to H-Share (%)
LUOYANG GLASS-H	1108	4.68	600876	32.28	724.7
ZIJIN MINING-H	2899	2.47	601899	3.42	65.5
SHENJI GROUP-H	300	3.03	600806	11.02	334.8
DALIAN PORT PD-H	2880	3.04	601880	4.19	64.8
GREAT WALL MOT-H	2238	7.59	601238	20.51	223.1
SHANDONG XINHU-H	719	4.32	000756	10.72	196.7
CITIC BANK-H	998	4.89	601998	6.09	48.9
SHANGHAI PHARM-H	2607	15.40	601607	16.82	30.6
BEIJING NORTH-H	588	2.49	601588	4.32	107.4
TIANJIN CAP-H	1065	5.09	600874	8.73	105.1
ZTE-H	763	14.16	000063	15.06	27.2
ALUMINUM CORP-H	2600	2.68	601600	4.58	104.3
CEB BANK-H	6818	3.65	601818	3.75	22.8

Conclusion

The Hong Kong and mainland Chinese stock markets showed mixed performance, with some sectors showing positive momentum. The China Securities Finance Corporation's move to resume lending and cut rates was seen as supportive for the market. Cheung Kong Property was highlighted for its favorable valuation and long-term investment potential. Kader Holdings and Green Energy GP were selected as top picks for the day due to their potential for price increase. The market data also revealed increased short-selling activity and interest rate trends that could impact future performance.

展开完整摘要