食品展望——全球食品市场半年期报告（英）-112页_10mb

Food Outlook Summary

Core Content

The Food Outlook is a biannual report published by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) that provides an analysis of global food markets, including production, utilization, trade, and price trends. It is available in both print and online formats and is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 IGO licence, allowing non-commercial reuse with proper citation.

Main Points

• Publication Details:

  • The report is issued twice a year, in June and November.
  • The June report offers detailed market analysis, while the November report provides a summary.
  • The report includes sections on Markets at a Glance, Special Features, Major Policy Developments, Statistical Tables, and Market Indicators.

• License and Usage:

  • The report is subject to a specific license that allows non-commercial use and adaptation, provided that the FAO is appropriately cited.
  • Users must not imply FAO endorsement of any organization, product, or service.
  • The use of the FAO logo is not permitted.
  • If the report is adapted, it must be licensed under the same or equivalent Creative Commons license.
  • Translations must include a disclaimer and proper citation.

• Photo Credits:

  • The document acknowledges photo credits from various sources, including AllFreeDownload, Shutterstock, Pexels, and others.

• Market Analysis:

  • The report covers a wide range of food commodities, including wheat, coarse grains, rice, oilcrops, oils and meals, sugar, meat and meat products, milk and milk products, fish and fishery products.

• Special Feature:

  • A special feature discusses the impact of rising input prices on the global food economy, highlighting the added pressure on an already fragile system.

• Major Policy Developments:

  • This section outlines key policy changes and developments in various food sectors, including grains, rice, oilcrops, meat, and dairy, which influence market dynamics.

• Statistical Tables:

  • Detailed statistical data is provided, including production, utilization, trade, and stock levels for various commodities.

• Market Indicators:

  • Key market indicators such as futures markets, ocean freight rates, food import bill, and FAO price indices are analyzed to assess global market trends.

Key Information

• Wheat Market:

  • Global wheat production is forecast to decline by 0.8% in 2021/22 compared to 2020/21, primarily due to lower outputs in Canada, the Russian Federation, and the United States.
  • Total wheat utilization is expected to increase by 2.2%, driven by rising food consumption and feed use, especially in the European Union, China, India, and the United States.
  • Ending stocks are projected to fall by 2.2%, with a significant drawdown in major exporters.
  • The stocks-to-disappearance ratio for major exporters is expected to drop to 12.5%, the lowest in over two decades.
  • The FAO Wheat Price Index has increased by 29.1% from January to October 2021 compared to the same period in 2020.

• Coarse Grains Market:

  • Global production is expected to rise by 1.5% to an all-time high of 1504.7 million tonnes.
  • Maize production is forecast to set a new record, while barley production is expected to decline.
  • Total utilization is projected to increase by 1.6%, mainly due to higher maize use in Brazil, China, and Canada.
  • Coarse grain stocks are predicted to remain near opening levels, with a slight decrease in the stocks-to-use ratio to 22.3%.
  • The FAO Coarse Grain Price Index has increased by 49.7% since May 2021.

• Rice Market:

  • World rice production is forecast to rise by 0.9% to 518.2 million tonnes.
  • Utilization is expected to grow by 1.6%, reaching a peak of 518.8 million tonnes.
  • Ending stocks are projected to remain around a historical high of 187.6 million tonnes.
  • The FAO Rice Price Index has declined by 9.7% since May 2021 and is 7.9% below the year-earlier level.

Additional Resources

• FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief: www.fao.org/worldfoodsituational
• Crop Prospects and Food Situation: www.fao.org/giews/reports/crop-prospects
• AMIS Market Monitor: www.amis-outlook.org/amis-monitoring

Contact Information

• Erin Collier
• Jonathan Pound (Production)

Key Themes

• The global food market is influenced by production levels, demand trends, trade dynamics, and price fluctuations.
• Input costs and weather conditions play a significant role in shaping market outcomes.
• Supply and demand indicators such as stocks-to-use ratios and price indices are crucial for assessing market stability and future outlook.
• The FAO provides critical data and analysis to support informed decision-making in the agricultural and food sectors.