联合国粮农组织-粮食展望：两年一度的全球食品市场报告（英文）-2019.11-104页_3mb

报告摘要

Food Outlook Summary

Core Content

The FAO Food Outlook is a biannual report that provides insights into global food markets, including production, utilization, trade, and price trends for various commodities. It is prepared by the FAO Trade and Markets Division, under the guidance of Boubaker Ben-Belhassen and Abdolreza Abbassian. The report highlights key developments in global food markets, emphasizing supply and demand dynamics, market summaries, and in-depth analyses of specific commodities. It is available under a Creative Commons licence and can be accessed through the FAO website or by contacting Erin.Collier@fao.org.

Main Commodities and Their Trends

Wheat

Production: Forecast to reach 765.0 million tonnes in 2019/20, a strong rebound from 2018, with the EU, Russia, Ukraine, and the US leading the increase.
Utilization: Expected to rise by 1.5% to 759.5 million tonnes, driven by food use (up 1.1%) and feed use (up 2.8%).
Trade: Forecast at 172.1 million tonnes, slightly lower than the previous season but still up from 2018/19.
Inventories: Projected to increase by 1.9% to 274.9 million tonnes, with China expected to see the largest increase in carryovers.
Prices: The FAO Wheat Price Index has seen a slight decline in 2019 Jan-Oct compared to 2018 Jan-Oct, reflecting competitive prices and large supplies.

Coarse Grains

Production: Anticipated to reach 1,425.5 million tonnes in 2019/20, the second highest on record, with increased barley and maize output.
Utilization: Expected to remain close to the 2018/19 level, with a notable contraction in feed use, especially maize, due to ASF and lower production in the US.
Trade: Forecast to decrease slightly, with reduced maize trade in the EU and increased barley trade in North Africa and Saudi Arabia.
Inventories: Projected to fall by 4% to 393.6 million tonnes, with significant drawdowns in the US and China.
Prices: The FAO Coarse Grain Price Index rose by 3.7% in 2019 Jan-Oct, reflecting market tightening.

Rice

Production: Expected to fall by 0.8% in 2019, with declines in Australia, Brazil, Nigeria, and the US, and an increase in other Asian countries.
Utilization: Projected to rise slightly, outpacing production, leading to a decline in global rice inventories.
Trade: Forecast to increase, with China and other Asian countries expected to import more, and India and China leading the export growth.
Prices: The FAO Rice Price Index remained relatively stable in 2019 Jan-Oct, with a slight decline of -1.0% compared to 2018 Jan-Oct.

Oilcrops, Oils, and Meals

Production: Global oilseed production is expected to decline by 2.7% in 2019/20, primarily due to reduced soybean and rapeseed output.
Utilization: Meals and oils utilization is forecast to increase by 1.9%, outpacing production, leading to a drawdown in reserves.
Trade: Expected to grow slowly, with trade tensions affecting market dynamics.
Prices: The FAO Oilseed Price Index dropped by 6.4%, while the Vegetable Oils index fell by 11.5%, reflecting market tightening and lower demand.

Sugar

Production: Forecast to decline by 2.8% to 175.1 million tonnes in 2019/20, with India, Thailand, and Pakistan contributing to the drop.
Utilization: Expected to increase by 1.4%, driven by rising incomes and lower prices.
Trade: Projected to rise by 1.3%, supported by increased import demand and export incentives.
Prices: International sugar prices have been on a declining trend, influenced by large inventories and a stronger Brazilian real.

Meat and Meat Products

Production: World meat production is forecast at 335 million tonnes in 2019, a 1.0% decline from 2018, primarily due to ASF in China and its spread to other East Asian countries.
Trade: Expected to increase by 6.7% to 36.0 million tonnes, driven by China's increased imports.
Prices: The FAO Meat Price Index has seen moderate month-on-month increases, with pig meat prices rising sharply due to increased demand from China.

Key Information and Insights

Market Tightening: Several commodities, including coarse grains and oilcrops, are expected to see market tightening, leading to potential price increases.
Impact of ASF: The African Swine Fever has significantly impacted pig meat production in China and other countries, affecting global meat supply and prices.
Trade Dynamics: Trade in various commodities is influenced by production levels, import demand, and export policies, with China playing a pivotal role in demand for meat and rice.
Inventories: Global inventories are expected to decrease for rice and sugar, while wheat inventories may increase, depending on regional production and consumption trends.
Price Indices: The FAO provides price indices for various commodities, which are essential for tracking market trends and assessing supply and demand conditions.

Additional Resources

FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief: For detailed analysis of cereal markets.
Crop Prospects and Food Situation: For updates on crop conditions and food security.
AMIS Market Monitor: For monitoring market developments and policy impacts.
Oilcrops Monthly Price and Policy Update: For updates on oilcrop markets and policies.