《粮食展望》报告发布：全球粮食进口费用将在2021年创历史新高-112页_10mb

Food Outlook Summary

Core Content

The Food Outlook is a biannual report published by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), providing market assessments and analyses for global food commodities. The report includes data on production, utilization, and stocks, along with policy developments and market indicators, offering insights into the state of the global food system.

Main Sections

1. Markets at a Glance

• Wheat:

  • Global production is forecast to decline by 0.8% in 2021/22 due to lower yields in key producing countries such as Canada, the Russian Federation, and the United States.
  • Total utilization is expected to increase by 2.2%, driven by rising food consumption and strong feed demand, especially in the EU, China, and the US.
  • Ending stocks are projected to fall by 2.2% to 282.1 million tonnes.
  • The stocks-to-use ratio for major exporters is expected to drop to 12.5%, its lowest in over two decades.
  • Wheat prices are 29.1% higher in January–October 2021 compared to the same period in 2020.

• Coarse Grains:

  • Global production is forecast to increase by 1.5% to 1,504.7 million tonnes.
  • Maize production is expected to reach a new record, with declines in Brazil offset by increases in China, Ukraine, and the US.
  • Sorghum production is also expected to rise, while barley production is forecast to decline.
  • Total utilization is projected to grow by 1.6%, with higher maize use in feed and industrial sectors.
  • Ending stocks are expected to remain near opening levels, with a slight drop in the global stocks-to-use ratio to 22.3%.
  • Coarse grain prices have risen slightly since the start of the 2021/22 season, but remain lower than the previous year due to higher production and lower import demand.

• Rice:

  • Global production is forecast to increase by 0.9% to 518.2 million tonnes.
  • Asia remains the main driver of production, with improved growing conditions and reduced flood and drought impacts.
  • Global utilization is expected to rise by 1.6% to 518.8 million tonnes, with stocks reaching a historical high of 187.6 million tonnes.
  • International trade is projected to expand, potentially reaching 51.3 million tonnes, driven by increased African purchases and rebounding shipments from Thailand.
  • FAO Rice Price Index fell by 9.7% from May 2021 and by 7.9% from the year-earlier level.

Key Information

• Market Trends:

  • Wheat: Prices remain high due to tighter supply and strong demand.
  • Coarse Grains: Prices have risen slightly, with maize being the main driver.
  • Rice: Prices have been subdued due to currency depreciation and high freight costs, but trade is expected to expand.

• Major Exporters:

  • For wheat, major exporters include Canada, the Russian Federation, and the United States.
  • For coarse grains, major exporters include Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, the European Union, the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and the United States.
  • For rice, major exporters include Thailand, India, and Viet Nam.

• Policy Developments:

  • The report includes sections on policy changes affecting wheat, rice, and other commodities, highlighting the impact of input price increases and weather-related challenges on production and market dynamics.

• Market Indicators:

  • Includes data on futures markets, ocean freight rates, food import bill, and FAO price indices.

Additional Resources

• FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief: For detailed market analyses.
• Crop Prospects and Food Situation: For updates on crop production and food availability.
• AMIS Market Monitor: For real-time market monitoring and data.
• FAO Rice Price Update: For specific rice market updates.

Contact Information

• Erin Collier
• Jonathan Pound (Production)
• Shirley Mustafa (for rice section)

Legal and Licensing Information

• The report is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 IGO licence.
• Users must cite the report appropriately and not suggest endorsement by FAO.
• The FAO logo cannot be used without permission.
• Third-party materials require permission from the respective copyright holders.

Photo Credits

• Credits are listed for various image sources, including AllFreeDownload, Shutterstock, Pexels, iStock, and FAO.

Conclusion

The report highlights a generally stable and slightly improving global food market outlook, with production growth in many commodities offsetting rising demand and tightening supply conditions. It underscores the importance of monitoring input prices, weather patterns, and trade dynamics to maintain market equilibrium and food security.