2021-11-11-联合国粮农组织-_粮食展望_报告发布_全球粮食进口费用将在2021年创历史新高_112页_10mb

报告摘要

Food Outlook Summary

Core Content Overview

The Food Outlook is a biannual report by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) that provides detailed analyses of global food markets. It covers major commodities including wheat, coarse grains, rice, oilcrops, sugar, meat, and dairy, offering insights into production, utilization, trade, and price trends.

Key Highlights

Global Wheat Market

Production: Forecasted to decline by 0.8% in 2021/22 to 770.4 million tonnes, primarily due to lower yields in Canada, the Russian Federation, and the United States.
Utilization: Expected to increase by 2.2% to nearly 779 million tonnes, driven by rising food consumption and feed use.
Inventories: Projected to fall by 2.2% to 282.1 million tonnes, with the stocks-to-use ratio dropping to 35.8%.
Trade: Anticipated to grow by 1.8% to 192.3 million tonnes, with increased shipments from Argentina, Australia, and Ukraine.
Prices: The FAO Wheat Price Index rose to 127 in January–October 2021, up 29.1% compared to the same period in 2020.

Coarse Grains Market

Production: Set to increase by 1.5% to 1,504.7 million tonnes, with a record output in maize.
Utilization: Expected to rise by 1.6% to 1,514.0 million tonnes, driven by higher maize use in feed and ethanol production.
Inventories: Projected to remain near opening levels at 349.6 million tonnes, with the stocks-to-use ratio forecast at 22.3%.
Trade: Likely to contract by 1.7% to 234.5 million tonnes, with China and Viet Nam reducing purchases.
Prices: The FAO Coarse Grain Price Index rose to 144 in January–October 2021, up 49.7% compared to the same period in 2020.

Rice Market

Production: Forecast to reach 518.2 million tonnes, up 0.9% from 2020, with Asia being the main contributor.
Utilization: Expected to grow by 1.6% to 518.8 million tonnes, with food consumption and feed use rising.
Inventories: Projected to increase slightly to 187.6 million tonnes, near a historical high.
Trade: Anticipated to expand by 4.6% to 51.3 million tonnes, with increased demand from Africa and Asia.
Prices: The FAO Rice Price Index stood at 107 in January–October 2021, down 2.8% from the same period in 2020.

Oilcrops, Oils, and Meals

Production: Expected to reach a new record of 635.5 million tonnes, driven by increased soybean output in the US and Brazil.
Utilization: Projected to rise slightly, with oils/fats utilization increasing by 1.9% and meals/cakes by 2.1%.
Inventories: Likely to moderate, with a global stocks-to-use ratio of 13.6%.
Trade: Anticipated to rebound by 3.4% for oils and 2.9% for meals, reflecting improved supply conditions.
Prices: The FAO Oilseed Price Index rose to 139 in January–October 2021, up 50.7% from 2020; the Meals/Cakes index rose to 116, up 32.7%; the Vegetable Oils index rose to 162, up 71.8%.

Sugar Market

Production: Forecast to increase by 2.2% to 173.7 million tonnes, with recoveries in the EU, Russia, and Thailand.
Utilization: Expected to rise by 1.9%, driven by global economic growth and increased consumption in India and China.
Inventories: Projected to decline by 1.1% to 94.8 million tonnes, with the global stocks-to-use ratio at 54.3%.
Trade: Anticipated to decrease slightly to 60.5 million tonnes, with reduced exports from Brazil and India.
Prices: International sugar prices rose to 17.4 US cents/lb in January–October 2021, up 38.0% from the same period in 2020, influenced by reduced supply and increased demand.

Major Policy Developments

Grains: Policy changes affecting production and trade are expected to influence market dynamics, especially in major exporting countries.
Rice: Trade policies and market access are critical as global demand for rice remains strong.
Oilcrops: Policies on biofuels and trade regulations will play a significant role in shaping market trends.
Meat: Restrictions due to animal diseases and trade policies may impact production and export volumes.
Dairy: Policies related to production, trade, and domestic consumption are anticipated to influence market conditions.

Market Indicators

Futures Markets: Show trends in price expectations and market sentiment.
Ocean Freight Rates: Have been a key factor in affecting trade costs and import demand.
Food Import Bill: Reflects the cost of importing food commodities and is influenced by global prices and trade volumes.
FAO Price Indices: Provide a benchmark for global commodity prices, with wheat, coarse grains, rice, oilcrops, and sugar all showing increases in 2021 compared to 2020.

Additional Resources

FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief: Offers detailed updates on cereal markets.
Crop Prospects and Food Situation: Provides insights into crop production and market outlook.
AMIS Market Monitor: Tracks market developments and policy impacts.
FAO Rice Price Update: Focuses on rice market trends and price analysis.