联合国粮农组织-粮食展望——全球粮食市场双年度报告（英）-2023.6-160页_13mb

Food Outlook Summary

Core Content

The Food Outlook is a biannual report by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) that provides forecasts and assessments of global food markets, including production, trade, utilization, and prices for key commodities such as wheat, coarse grains, rice, meat, sugar, and oilcrops. The report highlights the resilience of global food systems despite various shocks and outlines the expected trends for the 2023/24 season.

Main Viewpoints

• Global Food Production Systems: Remain vulnerable to shocks from extreme weather, geopolitical tensions, policy changes, and market developments.
• Wheat: Production and trade are expected to fall from 2022/23 record highs, but stocks will remain ample due to carryover from previous seasons.
• Coarse Grains: Production is forecast to recover, with maize being the primary driver of growth. Supplies and prices are expected to decrease, supporting increased utilization and trade.
• Rice: Production is expected to recover slightly, with international prices reaching their highest level since 2011 due to strong Asian demand and production disruptions.
• Meat: Global meat production is projected to increase marginally in 2023, led by poultry meat, despite challenges like animal diseases and high costs. Trade is expected to grow slightly due to increased import demand in Asia.
• Sugar: Production is forecast to decrease due to lower outputs in key countries, leading to tighter supplies and higher prices. Trade is expected to contract.
• Oilcrops: Production is expected to rebound, with soybean and rapeseed leading the growth. Oilseed prices are expected to remain above average, encouraging further planting and yield increases.
• Dairy: Milk production is expected to grow slowly due to extreme weather, lower margins, and labor shortages. Trade is forecast to recover slightly, though some countries may reduce imports.
• Fisheries: Production growth is expected to slow, with aquaculture offsetting declining capture fisheries. Prices are rising due to inflation and economic challenges.

Key Information

Production and Trade Forecasts

Utilization and Stocks

Price Trends

• Wheat: Prices in May 2023 were 35% lower than May 2022 but 4% above the five-year average.
• Coarse Grains: Prices are expected to remain below their 2022 levels, reflecting improved supply prospects.
• Rice: Prices have increased significantly, reaching their highest level since October 2011.
• Oilcrops: Prices are expected to remain above recent average levels, encouraging further planting and yield increases.

Special Feature

• Food Inflation in Net Food Importing Developing Countries (NFIDCs): The report emphasizes the impact of rising international cereal prices on these countries, influenced by currency movements. CPI has surged to levels not seen in decades, leading to macroeconomic consequences and social unrest.

Policy and Market Developments

• The report outlines major policy developments affecting various commodities, including grains, rice, meat, and dairy.
• It also includes market indicators such as ocean freight rates, food import bills, and FAO price indices.

Conclusion

The 2023/24 global food market outlook highlights a mix of recovery and challenges across different commodities. While production and supplies are expected to increase in some areas, others like wheat and sugar may see declines. Prices are influenced by supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical factors, and currency movements, particularly in NFIDCs. The report underscores the importance of monitoring these trends to ensure global food security and stability.