2024-10-20-世界银行-多哥2024年经济更新_增强韧性（英）_55页_2mb

Togo’s 2024 Economic Update: Building Resilience

Executive Summary

• Togo experienced resilient economic growth (avg. 5.1% since 2013) amid fiscal consolidation, but performance lagged peers due to structural factors.
• Challenges: Climate change threatens agriculture, with projected yield declines and productivity losses.
• Opportunities: Agroforestry can boost crop production, carbon sequestration, and farmer incomes at scale.
• Policy focus: Strengthen fiscal management, improve revenue mobilization, invest in public infrastructure, and promote climate-adapted agriculture.

Key Findings

Economic Performance

• Growth Prospects: Togo's growth is projected to slow to 5.3% in 2024 amid fiscal consolidation and regional uncertainty, then recover to 5.8% by 2026.
• Poverty Reduction: Poverty rate (43.8% in 2021) could decline by 4.4 percentage points by 2026, but regional disparities remain.
• Climate Risks: Agriculture productivity may drop 11% in dry/hot scenarios, threatening food security and disproportionately affecting rural areas.

Agroforestry Potential

• Converting 20% of cropland and 50% of grassland/shrubland to agroforestry could:
  • Triple crop production from these areas.
  • Benefit ~764,000 smallholder farmers.
  • Save ~3,755 Ktons of CO₂ emissions by 2050.

Policy Options

Recommendations

1. Accelerate fiscal consolidation to mitigate debt risks.
2. Strengthen public investment management for higher infrastructure efficiency.
3. Scale up agroforestry through targeted subsidies and carbon financing.
4. Enhance climate resilience in agriculture via improved water management and drought-resistant crops.

注：此总结提取了报告核心结论，并按优先级分段呈现。政策选项部分列出具体行动计划及预期收益。