2025-04-13-世界银行-多哥国家气候与发展报告（执行摘要）（英）_18页_486kb

Climate Change in Togo: Impacts and Strategies

Overview

Climate change poses significant threats to Togo's development trajectory, impacting livelihoods, economic activities, and population welfare. A comprehensive report outlines key challenges and recommendations for mitigating these effects through structural transformation, climate-resilient investments, and improved governance.

Climate Change Impacts

Current impacts include more frequent and severe heat waves, unpredictable rainfall, and coastal erosion, affecting agriculture, infrastructure, and human health. By 2050, projected income losses could reach up to 12% per capita, disproportionately harming rural and coastal poor populations. Rising temperatures and reduced crop yields are expected to dominate welfare losses, exacerbated by slower human capital accumulation and flooding. Heat stress risks worker productivity and learning outcomes.

Importance of Structural Transformation

Accelerated structural transformation is crucial for inclusive growth and climate resilience. Moving labor to higher-productivity sectors could boost GDP growth to 6% annually, but challenges remain in diversifying the economy beyond agriculture. This transformation can reduce climate exposure by up to 20% by 2050, potentially lowering climate impact losses.

Key Strategies and Opportunities

A multi-pronged approach includes scaling climate-smart agriculture (e.g., agroforestry, irrigation), accelerating clean energy adoption (e.g., renewables, energy efficiency), investing in climate-resilient infrastructure, and strengthening human capital. These actions can transform climate threats into development opportunities by fostering green jobs, sustainable urban growth, and access to international markets.

Priority Investments

Total investment needs over 25 years are US$13.9 billion (6.2% of GDP annually). Priority areas include agriculture (US$1.9 billion), urban and coastal development (US$2.07 billion), and energy (US$3.88 billion). Low-cost, high-return investments should be focused initially, with governance reforms enhancing allocative efficiency.

Governance and Financial Considerations

Togo must develop an ambitious national climate strategy, coordinate climate risks across policies, and improve access to climate finance. This includes leveraging concessional funding, developing green credit and insurance instruments, and introducing carbon taxation to mobilize resources.

Challenges and Recommendations

Constraints include limited fiscal space, weak climate governance, and implementation gaps. Recommendations emphasize building capacity for climate decision-making, engaging the private sector through PPPs, and enhancing social protection to support vulnerable populations. Addressing these can reduce climate-induced poverty by up to two-thirds under transformation scenarios.