世界银行-多哥国家气候与发展报告（英）-2025.4_113页_2mb

Climate Change and Development in Togo

Togo faces significant climate challenges that threaten development gains. With a GDP growth rate around 5.2% over the past decade, the country has been resilient but limited by slow structural transformation. Poverty remains high, particularly in rural areas (58.2%), and urban-rural divides widen climate vulnerabilities.

Key Findings

• Climate Impacts: By 2050, climate change could reduce GDP per capita by 6-12% under dry/warm scenarios, raising the poverty headcount by 1.8-3 percentage points, pushing ~500,000 people into poverty annually through climate shocks.
• Structural Transformation: Accelerated transformation—boosting productivity through technologies like green mechanization and agroforestry—can reduce climate impacts by ~28-38% compared to business-as-usual scenarios, requiring ~8% of GDP investment annually on climate actions.
• Adaptation Needs: Key sectors (agriculture, energy) need investments totaling ~US$8.5 billion (2025-2050) to offset climate damages, including irrigation, renewable energy expansion, and resilient infrastructure.
• Social Dimensions: Poor and women are most vulnerable; climate shocks increase poverty incidence by deepening consumption deficits and hindering human capital accumulation.

Transformative Recommendations

• Policy Leverage: Strengthen coordination mechanisms (e.g., a high-level steering committee) to mainstream climate resilience into development planning and budgeting.
• Financing Solutions: Implement carbon taxes ($7.5/ton CO₂ equivalent by 2035) and explore green bonds to mobilize climate finance; prioritize low-cost, high-return investments first.
• Private Sector: Enhance public-private partnerships for climate-resilient infrastructure; provide technical assistance and financial instruments to support agribusiness and renewable energy.
• Social Safeguards: Scale cash transfer programs tied to climate events, build adaptive capacity through education reform, and promote green jobs in urban centers.

Togo must balance development and climate adaptation through integrated policies, fiscal reforms, and inclusive investments. Immediate action is needed to build climate resilience without delaying economic transformation.