2025-05-06-世界银行-多哥国家气候与发展报告（英）_113页_2mb

Togo Country Climate and Development Report Summary

Executive Summary

Togo has achieved moderate economic growth over the last decade but faces significant challenges in structural transformation and climate vulnerability. To reach upper-middle-income status and reduce poverty, Togo needs accelerated growth averaging 6% annually, boosted by inclusive structural transformation in agriculture and key sectors. However, climate change poses major risks, potentially reducing GDP per capita by 6.1-12.2% by 2050 without adaptation. Climate actions identified in the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) cost an estimated US$8.5B annually by 2035, requiring new financing, fiscal space, and robust governance.

Key Findings

Economic and Development Challenges

• GDP growth recently averaging 5.2% but slowed compared to historical peaks.
• Poverty still high (43.8%), with large urban-rural divides (extreme poverty is 58.2% in rural areas).
• Structural transformation has been limited, constraining productivity gains and inclusive growth.
• Climate change exacerbates development challenges through heat stress, reduced agricultural yields, flooding, and health risks.

Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerability

• Togo is highly exposed to climate risks, ranking 135th in global vulnerability.
• Dry/hot scenarios project average temperature increases of 1.5°C by 2050, threatening food security and livelihoods.
• Heat stress, changing rainfall patterns, and extreme events like floods are major vulnerabilities.
• Rural populations and women are disproportionately affected.

Climate Actions and priorities

Structural Transformation with Climate Considerations

• Accelerate diversification: invest in climate-resilient agriculture, green energy, digital infrastructures, and transport.
• Scale up nature-based solutions like agroforestry, riparian buffers, and community-based forest management.

Priority Investments

• Agriculture: US$2.0B (climate-smart practices, irrigation, agroforestry, resilience measures) (Table 5).
• Urban/Coastal: US$2.1B (drainage improvements, coastal defenses, resilient infrastructure) (Table 6).
• Energy: US$3.9B (renewables, grid resilience, clean cooking) (Table 7).
• Transportation: US$1.6B (climate-resilient roads, ports, public transit) (Table 8).
• Digital: US$0.14B (climate-proof digital infrastructures) (Table 9).

Financing Strategy

• Implement carbon taxation (US$7.5/tCO₂) to raise ~1% of GDP by 2035, ensuring revenues support adaptation.
• Increase public finance through green bonds and blended finance, develop national carbon markets.
• Strengthen fiscal sustainability and public investment management frameworks to leverage climate finance.

Policy Recommendations

• Integrate climate goals into NDC implementation, fiscal policy, and public procurement.
• Develop a cohesive climate governance framework.
• Engage the private sector through incentives, de-risking mechanisms, and public-private partnerships.
• Enhance social protection programs, strengthen early warning systems, and institutionalize shock response planning.

Key Conclusions

Togo requires a strategic approach to climate change and structural transformation. By combining ambitious investments in climate-resilient infrastructure, green energy, and human capital, with innovative financing mechanisms, Togo can catalyze inclusive growth, build climate resilience, and achieve its development goals.