20230627-招银国际-中国燃气-00384.HK-Expecting_bottoming_out_6页_1mb

报告摘要

Analyst Rating: Buy (maintained), with a target price cut to HK$11.78, down 12% from previous.
Key Financial Performance: FY23 earnings missed consensus, with revenue up 4.3% YoY but net profit down 44% YoY to HK$4,293 million, primarily due to lower gas sales growth and margin pressures. Cash flow turned positive at HK$10.03 billion.
FY24E Outlook: Management guidance expects net profit growth of over 30% YoY, attributed to increased gas sales volume (11.9% YoY) and improved margins. However, adjustments include a drop in gas connected users and slower industrial gas sales.
Valuation Changes: Target price reduced to HK$11.78 (11x FY24E PE) based on lower growth expectations and implementation timelines for cost measures.
Supporting Factors: Positive spin-off approval for "Smart Living" and potential unlocking of value in value-added services; optimistic long-term dollar margin improvements and growth in residential and industrial gas sectors.
Current Market Position: Current price HK$9.40, with trailing 12-month performance showing volatility.