> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Meituan (3690 HK) Summary ## Core Content and Key Insights Meituan, a leading Chinese online platform, reported its 4Q25 financial results on 26 March. The key highlights include: - **Revenue**: RMB92.1bn, up 4.1% YoY and in line with Bloomberg consensus. - **Adjusted Net Loss**: RMB15.1bn, at the lower end of the previously guided range of RMB15.1bn-16.1bn. - **Core Local Commerce (CLC) Performance**: The CLC segment is showing signs of **bottoming out**, with a **29% QoQ reduction in operating loss** to RMB10.0bn. The company expects a **58% QoQ reduction** in 1Q26, bringing the operating loss to RMB4.2bn. - **CLC Recovery**: Despite a 1.1% YoY decline in revenue, CLC showed **recovery in order share and GMV share**, driven by a **stronger-than-peers increase in Average Order Value (AOV)**, supported by the holiday season and strong consumer mindshare. - **New Initiatives**: Revenue from new initiatives reached RMB27.3bn in 4Q25, up 18.9% YoY, with **expected further growth of 20% YoY in 1Q26**. Segment operating loss is expected to narrow sequentially to RMB2.6bn. ## Main Views and Analysis - **Regulatory Impact**: Regulatory guidance in the food delivery industry is steering the sector toward healthier development, which has positively influenced Meituan's performance. - **In-Store Segment Focus**: Players in the in-store segment are increasingly focusing on core competencies and categories, which is driving more efficient expansion. - **Competition Phase**: The most intense phase of competition in the local services sector may have passed, with Meituan showing signs of stabilization. - **User Subsidies**: The company continues to optimize user subsidies, which should help improve long-term unit economics (UE) and sustain its competitive advantage. - **Earnings Recovery**: While a meaningful earnings recovery may still take time, the company is on a path to improvement. ## Financial Forecasts and Valuation ### Revenue Forecast (RMB bn) | Year | Forecast (2026E) | Previous (2026E) | Change (%) | |------|------------------|------------------|------------| | 2026 | 408.6 | 421.5 | -3.1% | | 2027 | 464.8 | 482.5 | -3.7% | | 2028 | 517.4 | 517.4 | -0.0% | ### Operating Loss and Non-IFRS Net Loss (RMB bn) | Year | Forecast (2026E) | Previous (2026E) | Change (%) | |------|------------------|------------------|------------| | 2026 | -12.9 | -18.9 | 31.7% | | 2027 | 31.2 | 38.3 | -18.4% | | 2028 | 49.8 | 517.4 | -51.1% | ### Non-IFRS Net Profit Margin | Year | Forecast (2026E) | Previous (2026E) | Change (%) | |------|------------------|------------------|------------| | 2026 | -1.2% | -2.3% | 1.2 pp | | 2027 | 7.2% | na | - | | 2028 | 9.4% | na | - | ### Adjusted Net Profit (RMB mn) | Year | Forecast (2026E) | Previous (2026E) | Change (%) | |------|------------------|------------------|------------| | 2026 | -4,703.1 | -9,603.0 | 51.1% | | 2027 | 33,682.8 | na | - | | 2028 | 48,726.3 | na | - | ### P/E Ratio (x) | Year | Forecast (2026E) | Previous (2026E) | Change (%) | |------|------------------|------------------|------------| | 2026 | 13.1 | na | - | | 2027 | 17.1 | na | - | | 2028 | 11.0 | na | - | ### DCF-Based Target Price - **Target Price (TP)**: HK$141.1 (unchanged from previous TP of HK$141.0) - **Valuation**: Based on a WACC of 11.0% and terminal growth of 2.5%, the TP translates into a 22.6x 2027E adjusted P/E. ## Share Performance and Market Data - **Market Cap**: HK$526,881.0 million - **Average 3 Months Turnover (HK$ million)**: 4,570.9 - **52-Week High/Low (HK$)**: 162.80 / 74.50 - **Total Issued Shares (mn)**: 6,077.1 ## Shareholding Structure | Shareholder | Percentage | |-------------|------------| | Crown Holdings Asia Limited | 8.1% | | BlackRock | 5.3% | ## Analyst Recommendation - **Rating**: **BUY** (Maintain) - **Target Price**: HK$141.10 - **Current Price**: HK$86.70 - **Up/Downside**: 62.7% ## Conclusion Meituan's financial performance in 4Q25 indicates a **recovery in CLC** and **improvement in operating efficiency**. While the **most intense competition** may have passed, **earnings recovery** is expected to take time due to **ongoing macroeconomic challenges**. The **DCF-based valuation** remains unchanged, suggesting continued **positive outlook** on the company's potential to **optimize user subsidies** and **narrow losses** in the coming quarters. The **new initiatives** are also expected to **accelerate revenue growth** and **improve unit economics**. Overall, the company is viewed as **positive for long-term growth** and **value creation**, with **buy recommendation** maintained.