2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Albania_Fourth_Review_Under_the_Extended_Arrangement_and_Request_for_Modification_and_Waiver_of_Applicability_of_Performance_Criteria_67页_1mb

Albania: Fourth Review Under the Extended Arrangement and Request for Modification and Waiver of Applicability of Performance Criteria

Core Content Overview

This document outlines the fourth review of Albania's Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It includes the Staff Report, Staff Supplement, and Press Release, and discusses economic developments, program performance, policy recommendations, and risks associated with the IMF-supported program.

Key Economic Developments

• Economic Recovery: Real GDP growth was 2% in 2014, driven by tourism, agriculture, and textile manufacturing. Confidence is improving, though growth remains below potential.
• Unemployment: Stood at 18% in 2014:Q4, but employment has increased in the past year.
• Inflation: Averaged 1.6% in 2014, slightly below the inner band prescribed under the inflation consultation clause. The central bank lowered its policy rate to 2% in January 2015.
• Current Account: The deficit widened in 2014 due to trade deficit and declining remittances, but the underlying current account is expected to improve.
• Public Debt: The debt-to-GDP ratio rose to 72.6% at end-2014, primarily due to valuation changes and lower-than-expected GDP. The authorities aim to reduce the ratio to below 60% by 2018.
• Credit Growth: Credit to the private sector grew by 2% in 2014, but remains sluggish due to high non-performing loans (NPLs) and bank risk aversion.

Program Performance and Risks

• Performance Criteria: All end-December 2014 and continuous performance criteria (PCs) and most indicative targets (ITs) were met with comfortable margins. The IT on new domestic arrears was missed by a small margin, but the authorities plan to repay the arrears by end-April 2015.
• Structural Benchmarks (SBs): All but one SBs were implemented, though two were delayed. Delays in hiring an external expert to assist the Bank of Albania (BoA) Audit Committee were due to the slow appointment of a new central bank governor and procurement issues.
• Risks: External disinflationary pressures, electricity sector reforms, and the need for sustained political commitment to fiscal adjustment are key risks. The authorities request a modification of PCs for August and December 2015 and a waiver of applicability for all end-April 2015 PCs.

Policy Discussions

A. Outlook and Risks

• Near-Term Outlook: Growth is expected to rise to 3% in 2015, supported by domestic demand recovery, government arrears clearance, and reduced bank risk aversion.
• Inflation: Expected to approach the BoA's 3% target as the output gap narrows.
• Current Account: Expected to remain elevated in 2015 due to energy investments and remittance trends.
• Oil Price Impact: Lower oil prices have a muted effect on growth and the balance of payments due to high excise taxes and weak pass-through. This has also reduced the impact on consumption.
• Fiscal Risks: The electricity sector remains a fiscal burden due to reliance on hydropower and potential litigation from property expropriation claims.

B. Improving Debt Dynamics and Implementing Structural Fiscal Reforms

• Debt Reduction: Authorities reaffirmed their commitment to reduce the public debt-GDP ratio to below 60% by 2018.
• Fiscal Framework Adjustments: The budget deficit target for 2015 will be shielded from oil royalty and external disinflationary risks. The primary fiscal balance will be used as an intermediate target for fiscal policy.
• Tax Reform: A new corporate strategy for the General Directorate of Taxation (GDT) has been endorsed. A dedicated Refund Unit will coordinate refund efforts, and risk-based auditing will be introduced by June 2015. A valuation-based property tax will be introduced by end-2017, with a fiscal cadastre by end-2016.
• Expenditure Policy: Pension reform led to increased participation. A supplementary pension scheme reform for high officials is under consideration.
• Public Financial Management: The Albanian Government Financial Information System (AGFIS) will be extended to 15 budgetary institutions by end-2015. Multi-year commitment limits will be incorporated into laws by end-2015 to strengthen the medium-term budget framework (MTBF).

C. Safeguarding Financial Stability and Unlocking Credit

• Monetary Policy: Continued cautious monetary easing is appropriate, though the impact on credit remains limited due to bank risk aversion and weak private sector balance sheets.
• Financial Stability: High NPLs are a risk, but adequate provisioning covers mitigate this. The BoA is focusing on micro-prudential supervision and implementing stress tests to assess bank resilience.
• NPL Reduction: The authorities plan to form a high-level working group by end-September 2015 to develop an overarching strategy. Mandatory loan write-offs and recovery plans for large borrowers are being implemented.

Key Recommendations

• Shield the 2015 budget deficit from oil royalty and external disinflationary risks.
• Reduce public debt through sustained fiscal consolidation.
• Continue cautious monetary easing while addressing the transmission mechanism.
• Address NPLs through targeted reforms, including court performance and loan restructuring.
• Improve tax administration and implement risk-based auditing.
• Strengthen public financial management and introduce fiscal rules.

Supporting Documents

• Staff Report: Includes a detailed analysis of economic developments and program performance.
• Staff Supplement: Updates recent developments and provides additional context.
• Press Release: Announces the outcome of the review and the request for modifications and waivers.
• Attachments: Include the Letter of Intent, Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies, and Technical Memorandum of Understanding.

Conclusion

The program is broadly on track, with most performance criteria and targets met. The authorities are committed to fiscal consolidation and structural reforms, though external risks and implementation challenges persist. Continued support from the IMF and other international partners is essential to ensure the sustainability of the economic recovery and the reduction of public debt.