2016年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Albania_Eighth_Review_Under_the_Extended_Arrangement_and_Request_for_Modification_of_Performance_Criteria_61页_1mb

Albania: Eighth Review Under the Extended Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria

Core Content Summary

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the Eighth Review of Albania's Extended Fund Facility (EFF) on August 17, 2016, and approved a disbursement of €35.9 million. This brings total disbursements under the arrangement to about €298.3 million. The review was conducted without a formal meeting and concluded that Albania met all end-April 2016 performance criteria with comfortable margins, and made good progress on structural reforms.

Main Economic Developments

• Economic Recovery: Strengthening with GDP growth of 2.6 percent in 2015 and 3.0 percent in 2016:Q1, driven by large energy-related foreign direct investment (FDI) projects and a gradual recovery in domestic demand.
• Current Account Deficit: Widening in 2016:Q1 due to import-intensive FDI, although temporarily narrowed in 2015 by reduced oil exports and strong tourism receipts.
• Inflation: Recovering from very low levels, but remains subdued due to weak underlying inflationary pressures and a negative output gap. Inflation is expected to rise in the second half of 2016, with revised projections of 1.0 and 2.2 percent for 2016 and 2017 respectively.
• Credit Growth: Sluggish, constrained by a high stock of nonperforming loans (NPLs) on bank balance sheets. Despite monetary easing, credit growth to the private sector was only 2.6 percent in March 2016.
• Banking System: Remains liquid and well capitalized, with capital adequacy ratios exceeding regulatory minima. However, profitability declined due to one-off provisioning and exposure to government T-bills.

Program Performance and Risks

• Performance Criteria: All end-April 2016 performance criteria were met with comfortable margins.
• Indicative Targets: Two out of four were missed. The electricity distribution loss target was missed due to delays in infrastructure investment, while the domestic arrears target was missed by a small margin (0.15 percent of GDP).
• Structural Benchmarks: Six out of nine were met, three with delays, and three were missed. Delays were attributed to issues in reporting frameworks, recruitment, and implementation of reforms.
• Risks: The outlook faces downward risks, including potential weakening of growth in the EU, a renewed slide in oil prices, erratic rainfall affecting electricity generation, and slippages in structural reforms. On the upside, improved confidence and FDI projects could lead to increased investments.

Policy Recommendations

• Fiscal Adjustment: Continue to focus on fiscal adjustment, including broadening the tax base, improving tax compliance, and implementing structural reforms to reduce public debt.
• Monetary Policy: Maintain monetary easing to support growth, especially given signs of a nascent demand recovery.
• NPL Reduction: Address the high stock of NPLs to revive credit and support growth.
• Structural Reforms: Sustain reform momentum, particularly in the power sector, and implement a valuation-based property tax to strengthen public financial management.

Fiscal Sustainability and Structural Reforms

• Primary Surplus Target: The authorities aim to achieve a primary surplus of 0.2 percent of GDP in 2016.
• Revenue Challenges: Revenues from oil royalties, VAT, and customs are vulnerable to a drop in oil prices. The campaign against tax evasion and informality is yielding results, as shown by increased social security contributors.
• Revised Budget: Maintains sufficient buffers to contain risks and reallocates resources to capital expenditure while securing savings in recurrent expenditure.
• Fiscal Discipline: The authorities agreed to save any permanent budget overperformance for 2017 to ease consolidation goals.

Outlook and Risks

• Short-Term Outlook: GDP growth remains at 3.4 percent for 2016 and 3.8 percent for 2017. Inflation is expected to remain subdued.
• Medium-Term Outlook: Growth is projected to rise to over 4 percent, supported by a flexible labor market, increased investment, and improved investor confidence.
• Current Account Deficit: Expected to increase to around 13 percent of GDP in 2016 due to energy-related FDI, but narrow over the medium term.
• Reserve Cover: Expected to stabilize at around 4–4.5 months of imports by 2020–21.
• Fiscal Risks: Vulnerable to reduced oil prices and potential policy discipline issues due to the approaching mid-2017 elections.

Key Issues

• Structural Reforms: Important for improving the business climate and advancing EU accession negotiations.
• Fiscal Vulnerabilities: Need to further reduce fiscal vulnerabilities and public debt.
• NPLs: High stock of NPLs remains a key constraint on credit growth and economic recovery.

Conclusion

The IMF's review highlights Albania's progress in economic recovery and structural reforms, while emphasizing the need for continued fiscal adjustment and NPL reduction to ensure long-term stability and growth. The program is set to expire in February 2017, and the authorities are expected to maintain policy discipline and reform momentum ahead of the elections.