2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Tunisia_Third_Review_under_the_Extended_Fund_Facility_and_Request_for_Waiver_of_Applicability_and_Modification_of_Performance_Criteria_79页_4mb

IMF Country Report No. 18/218 - Tunisia: Third Review Under the Extended Fund Facility

Core Content Overview

This document outlines the IMF's Third Review under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for Tunisia, including a request for waiver of applicability and modification of performance criteria. The review was completed on July 6, 2018, allowing the purchase of SDR 176.7824 million (about US$249.1 million), bringing the total under the arrangement to SDR 808.1485 million (about US$1,139.0 million).

The four-year EFF arrangement, approved in May 2016, aims to support macroeconomic stabilization, fiscal consolidation, social protection, and private sector-led growth. The review highlights improved policy and reform implementation compared to the Second Review, but also notes persistent macroeconomic imbalances, high inflation, and challenges in social and structural reforms.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Economic Performance and Context

• Growth improved in early 2018, reaching 2.5% of GDP (y-o-y), driven by agriculture, tourism, and manufacturing.
• Inflation accelerated to 7.7% by May 2018, with core inflation at 7.2%, primarily due to dinar depreciation, wage hikes, and credit expansion.
• Current account deficit improved in the first quarter of 2018, supported by real exchange rate depreciation and increased tourism and remittances.
• Foreign reserves fell to 72 days of 2017 imports by mid-June, despite FX intervention efforts.
• The dinar depreciated by 4.5% against the Euro from the end of 2017 to June 2018.

2. Program Performance

• All quantitative performance criteria (QPCs) for end-March were met.
• Three out of nine structural benchmarks (SBs) were achieved, with one implemented with delay.
• Three prior actions were completed, and the authorities requested to reprogram outstanding SBs and drop two SBs related to the Large Taxpayers' Unit (LTU) that are no longer critical.
• Fiscal consolidation remains a key focus, with the deficit target for 2018 at 5.2% of GDP.

3. Key Policy Measures

• Fiscal Policy:

  • Energy subsidies are capped at 0.5% of GDP.
  • Voluntary departures of civil servants have been implemented, with 1,770 participants in negotiated exits and 5,000 in early retirement.
  • Wage bill measures include no new wage increases in 2018 unless growth surprises.
  • Pension reform was adopted by the Council of Ministers and aims for Parliamentary approval by end-September with retroactive effect from July.

• Monetary Policy:

  • Interest rates increased by 175 basis points in 2018, reaching 6.75% in June.
  • Further rate hikes may be needed if inflation does not decelerate.
  • Exchange rate flexibility is crucial to improve the current account and rebuild reserves.

• Structural Reforms:

  • One-stop shop for investors was established.
  • Negative list of investment authorizations introduced.
  • Reforms in governance, business climate, fiscal institutions, and financial sector are ongoing.
  • Anti-corruption authority and AML/CTF regime reforms are prioritized.

4. Outlook and Risks

• Growth is projected at 2.4% for 2018, with inflation expected to average 8.1%.
• Public debt is expected to be contained below 70% of GDP by 2020, and external debt below 90%.
• Key risks include:
  • Socio-political tensions affecting reform implementation.
  • Security and migration risks from Libya and the MENA region.
  • Further oil price increases could worsen the budget and current account by 0.15% and 0.08% of GDP, respectively.
  • Tighter global financial conditions may have limited impact due to concessional financing.

5. Support for the Program

• The IMF staff supports the completion of the Third Review and the modification of performance criteria.
• Donor support is essential for sustaining reforms and achieving macroeconomic stability.
• Technical assistance is being provided by the World Bank, AFD, EU, and IMF to support fiscal and structural reforms.

Summary of Key Indicators

Conclusion

The IMF acknowledges improved policy and reform implementation by the Tunisian authorities, but persistent macroeconomic imbalances and high inflation remain challenges. The program's success hinges on continued fiscal discipline, monetary tightening, and accelerated structural reforms. The gradual and socially balanced approach is emphasized to protect growth and social fairness while reducing vulnerabilities.

The IMF encourages donor support and technical assistance to ensure sustained progress and inclusive growth. The review is a positive step toward economic recovery, but ongoing risks require close monitoring and policy resilience.