IMF国际货币组织全球-Benin_2019-Article-IV-Consultation-Fourth-Review-under-the-Extended-Credit-Facility-Arrangement-and-Request-for-Modification-of-Performance-Criteria_122页_2mb

2019 Article IV Consultation and Fourth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility for Benin

Core Content

The 2019 Article IV Consultation and Fourth Review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) for Benin was concluded on June 21, 2019, by the IMF Executive Board. The review included the approval of a modification to performance criteria and a disbursement of SDR15.917 million (approximately US$22.1 million), bringing total disbursements under the ECF arrangement to SDR79.585 million (about US$110.4 million). The staff report and other documents were prepared to evaluate Benin's economic performance and support its development agenda.

Main Points

Economic Performance and Outlook

• Growth: Benin's economy grew at 6.7% in 2018, driven by strong agriculture and port activity. The outlook for 2019-2024 remains positive, with real GDP growth projected above 6.5%.
• Inflation: CPI inflation was at 1% in 2018 and is expected to remain below regional norms.
• Fiscal Deficit: The fiscal deficit decreased to 4.0% of GDP in 2018 from 5.9% in 2017, and is projected to fall to 3.0% in 2019.
• Public Debt: The public debt ratio is expected to start declining in 2019 after five years of increase, due to fiscal consolidation and strong growth.
• Current Account: The current account deficit narrowed to 8.3% of GDP in 2018, largely due to increased cotton exports.

Risks

• Short-term risks include political instability following the 2019 parliamentary elections, slower-than-expected growth in Nigeria, and continued weakness in the banking sector.
• Medium-term risks are tied to the ability to revive private investment and attract foreign investors.

Key Policies and Reforms

Fiscal Policies

• The authorities aim to reduce the fiscal deficit to below the WAEMU 3% of GDP ceiling by 2019.
• A strong tax reform package is in place, focusing on reducing tax expenditures and improving revenue mobilization, particularly through value-added tax and excises.
• The fiscal deficit is expected to decline further after 2019, with continued efforts in revenue collection and public investment efficiency.

Debt Sustainability

• The authorities are implementing a prudent borrowing policy and enhancing debt management.
• The March 2019 Eurobond issuance is expected to diversify the financing mix and lengthen debt maturity, but may introduce new vulnerabilities that require careful monitoring.

Economic Diversification

• Efforts to diversify the economy away from traditional sectors (like agriculture and cotton) are encouraged to enhance resilience and promote inclusive growth.
• The private sector, including foreign investors, is seen as critical to sustaining growth amid tighter public finances.

Financial Sector

• The banking sector faces vulnerabilities, including low profitability and capital adequacy.
• Reforms are needed to address these issues, including restructuring public banks and improving the business environment to enhance financial stability.

Governance and Anti-Corruption

• Strengthening the governance and anti-corruption frameworks is a key priority.
• Improving access to education and health is also emphasized to support long-term development.

Executive Board Assessment

• The Executive Board commended Benin's macroeconomic performance and the implementation of the program.
• They emphasized the importance of continuing fiscal consolidation, improving the business environment, and ensuring debt sustainability.
• The Board supported the modification of performance criteria and the addition of new structural benchmarks related to trade facilitation, customs administration, and the Treasury Single Account (TSA).

Summary of Key Indicators (2017–2024)

Conclusion

The IMF Executive Board concluded that Benin's macroeconomic and structural policies are adequate to support the program's objectives and manage risks. Continued implementation of these policies is crucial to achieving long-term development goals and maintaining macroeconomic stability.