20231022-国金证券-交通运输仓储行业研究_9月快递业务量同比+20_BDI指数环比继续改善_14页_1mb

Overall Market Performance
This week, the logistics and transportation index fell by 33%, outperforming the SSE 500 Index by 0.9% despite its overall 42% decline. The sector ranks 13th out of 29 in performance for the period (Oct 16-20, 2023). Among sub-sectors, shipping showed mild losses (-0.3%), while the logistics sector, particularly the courier segment, experienced severe underperformance (-58%).

Industry Analysis

• Shipping and Ports: The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 52% for the week, indicating signs of recovery. CCFI and SCAFI had mixed results, with declines in export container rates but growth in equity routes. Domestic and regional shipping indices showed declines.
• Aviation: Domestic air cargo and passenger volumes continue their recovery, with some carriers like Spring Airlines showing positive 2019-year-over-year growth in capacity demand. However, international routes remain below pre-pandemic levels. Fuel costs and currency risks are noted.
• Rail and Road Transport: Railway passenger demand surged by 120.3% month-on-month in September 2023, suggesting a robust but volatile recovery. Road transport also showed significant year-over-year improvements in both passengers and cargo, with high growth in volume metrics.
• Logistics and Courier Services: Despite strong volume growth (e.g., 200% for courier businesses), revenue per package decreased by 48%. Market concentration is high, with express companies competing, leading to shifting market shares and performance risks.

Key Metrics and Data

• Shipping indices: BDI rose to 2046 points, CCFI was 8172 points (falling 3%).
• Airlines: Carriers like Spring Airlines saw capacity demand increase (+6% vs 2019), but figures like Air China +11% masked losses for others.
• Couriers: 9-month CR8 for the industry held stable, but companies like Shunfeng grew inlet volume (+56%) while experiencing crowding-out effects.
• Risks include demand recovery slowness, high fuel prices, and potential supply chain issues that could widen供需gaps.

Recommendations and Opportunities
Stocks positioned to benefit from recovery include Spring Airlines and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway for their strong structural advantages in air and rail travel. In shipping, focus on oil transport firms like CNPC (Zhujiang Logistics) due to cyclical improvement signals. Discretionary plays include China Transport (international shipping) but with caveats.

Risks
Volatility in demand recovery, escalating fuel costs, fuel-related risks for airlines, and potential intense competition or pricing wars in logistics, as seen in courier metrics.