20201014-USDA-USDA_Oil_Crops_Outlook_2020.10.14_8页_82kb

2020/21 Oil Crops Outlook Summary

Core Content

The Oil Crops Outlook: October 2020 report by the USDA provides an analysis of the supply, demand, and price trends for major oil crops in the United States and globally, with a focus on soybeans, sunflowerseed, canola, and peanuts.

Key Highlights

U.S. Soybean Outlook

• Crop Forecast: The 2020/21 U.S. soybean crop is reduced by 45 million bushels to 4.268 billion bushels, due to a decrease in sown acreage to 83.1 million acres.
• Export Forecast: Strong sales to China and other markets lead to a 75 million bushel increase in export forecasts, reaching a record 2.2 billion bushels.
• Stocks and Prices: Season-ending stocks are expected to fall by 170 million bushels to 290 million, prompting USDA to raise the average farm price to $9.80 per bushel from $9.25.
• Soybean Meal and Oil Prices:
  • Soybean meal prices are expected to start at $350–$360 per short ton, with the average price forecasted at $335 per short ton.
  • Soybean oil prices are projected to increase to 32.5 cents per pound, up from 32 cents.

U.S. Sunflowerseed Outlook

• Production Forecast: Sunflowerseed production is projected at 2.807 billion pounds, a 44% increase from 2019/20, driven by higher sown acreage and near-record yields.
• Stocks and Prices:
  • Beginning stocks are 213 million pounds, down 26% from the previous year.
  • The average price is forecasted to decline to $18.85 per hundredweight from $19.40 in 2019/20 due to increased supply.

U.S. Canola Outlook

• Production Forecast: Canola production is expected to decrease by 214 million pounds to 3.187 billion pounds due to lower yields and reduced planting area.
• Supply and Demand: Total supplies are expected to change minimally, as higher beginning stocks and imports offset the smaller harvest.

U.S. Peanut Outlook

• Production Forecast: Peanut production is projected to increase by 1.2 billion pounds (22%) to 6.7 billion pounds, driven by higher sown acreage and yields.
• Demand and Prices:
  • Demand is forecasted to rise by 870 million pounds to 6.75 billion pounds.
  • Prices are expected to be 1% lower in 2020/21 due to the significant increase in production.

Global Outlook

Global Soybean Supplies

• Global soybean stocks are forecasted to decline to 88.7 million metric tons, down from 93.8 million in 2019/20.
• China's Imports: China's soybean imports are expected to rise by 1 million tons to 100 million tons, driven by increased demand.
• Brazil's Situation: Brazil's soybean planting has begun, but progress is slow due to lack of rainfall. This may delay new-crop deliveries and extend the tight supply of old-crop soybeans, affecting prices.
• Argentina's Export Taxes: Argentina reduced export taxes on soybeans by 3 percentage points in October, but the impact is expected to be marginal. Soybean exports are forecasted to decline by 500,000 tons to 7 million tons.

Global Sunflowerseed Outlook

• Production Forecast: Global sunflowerseed production is expected to fall by 2.5 million tons to 51.5 million tons, down from 55 million in 2019/20.
• Key Regions:
  • Ukraine: Output is forecasted to drop by 2 million tons to 15 million tons due to a drought.
  • Romania and Bulgaria: Production is expected to decline by 250,000 tons to 9.5 million tons, with yield reductions impacting output.
• Crush and Exports:
  • Ukraine's crush is forecasted to drop by 1.95 million tons to 14.85 million tons.
  • Exports of sunflowerseed oil and meal are expected to decline by 700,000 tons and 375,000 tons, respectively.

Malaysian Palm Oil Outlook

• Production Forecast: Crude palm oil production is expected to increase by 200,000 tons to 19.9 million tons, following a 7% decline in 2019/20.
• Exports: Exports are forecasted to rise by 200,000 tons to 17.2 million tons.
• China's Demand: China is expected to be a strong market for palm oil, with imports rising to 6.9 million tons from 6.65 million in 2019/20.
• India's Consumption: Indian palm oil consumption is expected to recover to 8.7 million tons, but growth is likely to be slower than in previous years due to the impact of the pandemic.

Summary of Key Trends

• U.S. Soybeans: A record export forecast is expected, driven by strong sales to China and a smaller crop.
• Sunflowerseed: Increased production in the U.S. and Ukraine is expected to ease prices, but global supply is tightening.
• Canola: Production is forecasted to decline due to weather conditions, but supplies are expected to remain stable due to higher beginning stocks and imports.
• Peanuts: Production is up, leading to a slight drop in prices, but demand is also expected to rise.
• Global Markets: China's demand for soybeans and palm oil is expected to drive prices and exports, while India's consumption is recovering slowly.

Conclusion

The 2020/21 oil crops outlook indicates a tightening global supply for soybeans and sunflowerseed, driven by reduced production in key regions and increased demand. U.S. soybean exports are expected to hit a record high, with prices rising due to lower supply and strong export demand. Meanwhile, U.S. sunflowerseed and peanuts are forecasted to benefit from increased production, leading to a moderate price decline. The global market dynamics are expected to continue influencing prices and trade flows in the coming months.