20170313-USDA-USDA_Oil_Crops_Outlook_2017.03.13_12页_280kb

报告摘要

Oil Crops Outlook Summary (OCS-17C)

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the U.S. and global outlook for oil crops, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, cottonseed, cottonseed meal, cottonseed oil, and peanuts, for the 2016/17 marketing year. It discusses production forecasts, export and import trends, domestic use, and price expectations.

Main Points

U.S. Soybean Outlook

Export Forecast: The U.S. soybean export forecast for 2016/17 was reduced by 25 million bushels to 2.025 billion bushels due to increasing foreign competition, particularly from Brazil.
Domestic Crush: The domestic crush forecast was increased by 10 million bushels to 1.94 billion bushels due to strong year-to-date demand for soybean meal.
Ending Stocks: Season-ending soybean stocks are expected to rise by 15 million bushels to 435 million bushels.
Farm Price: The U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans was revised to $9.30-$9.90 per bushel from $9.10-$9.90, reflecting the strong marketing of old-crop soybeans at higher prices.

U.S. Soybean Oil Outlook

Export Forecast: The U.S. soybean oil export forecast for 2016/17 was increased by 100 million pounds to 2.25 billion pounds.
Ending Stocks: Season-ending soybean oil stocks are forecast to rise to 1.772 billion pounds.
Price Trends: U.S. soybean oil prices have declined from a peak of 35.6 cents per pound in December to an average of 32 cents in February. The season-average price is expected to be 32-35 cents per pound.

Global Soybean Outlook

Production Forecast: Global soybean production for 2016/17 is forecast to increase by 4.2 million metric tons to 340.8 million metric tons.
Brazil's Impact: Brazil's production is forecast to increase by 4 million tons to a record 108 million tons due to record yields. This has led to an increase in Brazilian soybean exports to 61 million tons.
China's Role: China is the largest importer of soybeans, with imports forecast to increase by 1 million tons to 87 million tons for 2016/17, accounting for 77% of the global trade increase.
Season-ending Stocks in China: China's season-ending soybean stocks are expected to rise to 15.6 million tons.

Other Oil Crops

Australian Canola: Australia's canola production is estimated at 4.1 million tons, with exports forecast to rise to 3.1 million tons, up from 2.3 million in 2015/16.
Malaysian Palm Oil: Malaysian palm oil production for 2016/17 is forecast to decrease by 500,000 tons to 19.5 million tons. Exports are forecast to decline by 500,000 tons to 17 million tons.
Indian Vegetable Oil Imports: Indian demand for vegetable oil imports has slowed due to increased domestic production of oilseeds and rising palm oil prices. Soybean oil may be favored if domestic supplies are exhausted.

Key Information

U.S. Soybean Exports: Expected to decline due to increased competition from Brazil.
Domestic Crush: Increased due to strong demand for soybean meal, which is forecast at 34.3 million short tons.
Soybean Oil Exports: Increased due to higher production and competitive pricing.
Global Soybean Production: Expected to rise by 4.2 million metric tons, driven by Brazil and South Africa.
China's Soybean Imports: Dominated the global increase, with season-ending stocks rising to 15.6 million tons.
Australian Canola: A record harvest is expected, boosting exports.
Malaysia's Palm Oil: Production is expected to rebound, but exports are forecast to decrease slightly.
India's Oilseed Production: Reached a second-highest level, reducing the need for imports.
Soybean Oil Prices: Have dropped due to increased supply and reduced demand, with a season-average forecast of 32-35 cents per pound.

Tables Summary

Table 1: Provides U.S. soybean supply and disappearance data for the 2016/17 marketing year, including production, imports, and ending stocks.
Table 2: Details U.S. soybean meal supply and disappearance, including domestic and export use.
Table 3: Outlines U.S. soybean oil supply and disappearance, with data on production, imports, and ending stocks.
Table 4: Summarizes U.S. cottonseed supply and disappearance, including crush and exports.
Table 5: Presents U.S. cottonseed meal supply and disappearance, with data on domestic and export use.
Table 6: Shows U.S. cottonseed oil supply and disappearance, including production and use.
Table 7: Summarizes U.S. peanut supply and disappearance, including domestic use and exports.
Table 8: Lists oilseed prices received by U.S. farmers for the 2016/17 marketing year, showing trends in various crops.