20180117-USDA-Oil_Crops_Outlook_12页_259kb

Oil Crops Outlook Summary (OCS-18a)

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of the U.S. and global outlook for oil crops for the 2017/18 marketing year, focusing on soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, cottonseed, and peanuts. It highlights production, export, and domestic use trends, as well as the impact of weather conditions and market dynamics on supply and demand.

Key Highlights

U.S. Soybean Outlook

• Production Estimate: The 2017/18 U.S. soybean crop is estimated at 4.392 billion bushels, a 34 million bushel decrease from the previous forecast due to lower yields in Kansas, North Dakota, and South Dakota.
• Yield: The national average yield is 49.1 bushels per acre, a 0.4 bushel decline from the previous year.
• Crush: The U.S. soybean crush is forecast at 1.95 billion bushels, up 10 million bushels from the previous month.
• Export Forecast: U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 2.16 billion bushels, down 65 million bushels from the previous forecast.
• Ending Stocks: Season-ending soybean stocks are expected to reach 470 million bushels, up from 445 million bushels last month.

Global Soybean Outlook

• Production: Global soybean production for 2017/18 is estimated at 348.6 million metric tons, up 102,000 metric tons from the previous month.
• Brazil: Brazil's production is forecast at 110 million metric tons, up 2 million metric tons, with favorable yield outlook.
• Argentina: Argentina's production is forecast at 56 million metric tons, down 1 million metric tons, due to dry weather and reduced sown area.
• U.S. Exports: Brazil's exports to China increased by 4.5 million metric tons in October-December 2017, impacting U.S. export competitiveness.

Domestic Use Trends

Soybean Use

• Domestic Crush: The cumulative crush for September-November 2017 reached 494.6 million bushels, surpassing the previous year's record by nearly 10 million bushels.
• Soybean Meal: Soybean meal use is forecast to remain unchanged this month. The extraction rate is expected to improve modestly, but the higher crush will offset this.
• Soybean Oil: Season-ending soybean oil stocks are forecast to shrink to 1.536 billion pounds, down from 1.711 billion pounds in 2016/17. This is due to higher domestic use, particularly for biodiesel, and limited supply from other vegetable oils.
• Export Sales: U.S. soybean export sales commitments are slightly ahead of a year ago, but still below the previous year's pace.

Cottonseed and Peanut Outlook

• Cottonseed Production: The U.S. cottonseed crop for 2017/18 is estimated at 6.7 million short tons, the highest since 2006/07. This is driven by increased acreage in Texas, Oklahoma, and Mississippi.
• Cottonseed Crush: The crush is forecast to increase to 2.3 million short tons, up 14% from the previous year. This leads to a narrowing price premium for cottonseed oil relative to soybean oil.
• Peanut Production: The U.S. peanut crop is estimated at 7.234 billion pounds, down 405 million pounds from the previous forecast. This is due to lower yields in Georgia and Alabama and reduced harvested area in Texas.
• Peanut Crush: Peanut crush is forecast to increase by 3.6% for the season, with season-ending stocks expected to remain high at 2.5 billion pounds, above the previous year's 1.442 billion pounds.

International Market Trends

• Brazil: Brazil's soybean exports have started strongly, with a forecast of 67 million metric tons for 2017/18, up 1.5 million metric tons from the previous year. The country's favorable yields and increased production are expected to maintain its export competitiveness.
• Argentina: Dry weather has constrained soybean planting, leading to a reduction in the expected crop size to 56 million metric tons. This could lead to tighter season-ending stocks due to reduced supply.
• Import Dynamics: Tighter Canadian canola supplies and higher U.S. canola crush are expected to reduce canola availability in the 2017/18 season, potentially affecting U.S. market dynamics.

Key Tables Summary

Conclusion

The 2017/18 season is marked by a mix of production and demand dynamics. While U.S. soybean production and crush are expected to be strong, export demand remains subdued due to competition from Brazil and trade issues with China. Domestic use, particularly for biodiesel and meal, is expected to increase, but the overall market is anticipated to remain tight, especially for soybean oil. Cottonseed and peanut production are both on the rise, with cottonseed benefiting from increased acreage and higher crush rates, while peanut production faces a modest decline due to yield and area constraints. International market trends suggest that Brazil will maintain a strong export position, while Argentina's reduced production may lead to tighter supplies and higher prices.