20181213-USDA-USDA_Oil_Crops_Outlook_2018.12.13_15页_201kb

Oil Crops Outlook Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the outlook for major oil crops in the United States and globally, focusing on soybeans, cottonseed, rapeseed, palm oil, and other oilseeds. It includes production forecasts, export and domestic use projections, and price trends for the 2018/19 marketing year, with comparisons to previous years.

Main Points

Soybean Outlook

• U.S. Soybean Exports and Domestic Crush: USDA kept its 2018/19 export forecast at 1.9 billion bushels and domestic crush at 2.08 billion bushels. The season-average price forecast for U.S. soybeans was narrowed to $7.85–$9.35 per bushel, compared to $7.60–$9.60 last month.
• Brazil Soybean Production: Brazil's soybean production for 2018/19 was raised by 1.5 million metric tons to a record 122 million metric tons, driven by higher yields despite a smaller planting area.
• Brazil Soybean Exports: Exports were increased by 4 million tons to 81 million tons, with China accounting for over 90% of the exports in the first two months of the marketing year.
• Soybean Price Rally: Soybean futures prices rose above $9.00 per bushel in early December due to informal China-U.S. trade agreement news, but the rally is expected to be short-lived without official tariff reductions.

Cottonseed Outlook

• U.S. Cottonseed Production: U.S. cottonseed production for 2018/19 was forecast at 5.86 million short tons, slightly higher than the previous month's forecast, due to a better Texas crop.
• Cottonseed Supplies and Use: Reduced supplies due to poor harvest conditions in the Southeast are expected to limit crushing and feeding to 1.8 million and 3.7 million tons, respectively.
• Cottonseed Export Forecasts: U.S. cottonseed exports for 2018/19 are forecast at 1.8 million tons, down from the previous year's 2.65 million tons.

Rapeseed Outlook

• Global Rapeseed Production: USDA lowered the 2018/19 global production forecast by 700,000 tons to 70.2 million tons, due to lower production in India and Australia.
• India Rapeseed Production: India's production was forecast 500,000 tons lower to 6 million tons due to insufficient soil moisture for planting.
• Australia Rapeseed Production: Canola production in Australia was reduced by 300,000 tons to 2.3 million tons, marking a 37% decline from the previous year.

Palm Oil Outlook

• Indonesian Palm Oil Production: Indonesia's production for 2018/19 was forecast 1 million tons higher to 41.5 million tons, contributing to two-thirds of the global production increase.
• Palm Oil Prices: Prices at the main trading exchange in Malaysia dropped 24% from a year ago to a 3-year low.
• Indonesian Export Tax: The export tax on crude palm oil was reduced to zero, matching the Malaysian rate, which is expected to boost domestic biodiesel use.
• Malaysian Palm Oil Exports: Malaysian exports are forecast to decrease by 300,000 tons to 17.6 million tons.

U.S. Supply and Disappearance

• Soybean Supply and Use: The U.S. soybean supply for 2018/19 is forecast at 4,600 million bushels, with use at 4,734 million bushels.
• Cottonseed Supply and Use: U.S. cottonseed supply for 2018/19 is forecast at 6,308 thousand short tons, with use at 5,908 thousand short tons.
• Soybean Meal and Oil: U.S. soybean meal production is forecast at 49,147 thousand short tons, and soybean oil production at 24,025 thousand short tons.

Key Information

• Global Soybean Supplies: Larger global supplies are expected due to increased production in Brazil.
• Brazil's Soybean Exports: Brazil's exports are expected to dominate, with China as the main buyer.
• Cottonseed Supply Constraints: Reduced supply due to poor harvests is expected to limit use and exports.
• Rapeseed Production Decline: Lower production in India and Australia is expected to impact global supply.
• Palm Oil Market Dynamics: High global stocks and lower prices are affecting trade and domestic use.
• Price Volatility: Price fluctuations are influenced by trade agreements and supply conditions.

Summary of Forecasts

Conclusion

The 2018/19 outlook for oil crops highlights the significant impact of production and trade dynamics on global markets. Brazil's increased soybean production and exports are expected to dominate the market, while reduced supplies in the U.S. and other regions may limit domestic use and exports. Price trends are influenced by trade agreements and supply conditions, with volatility expected in the short term. Global stocks, particularly in palm oil and rapeseed, are likely to remain high, affecting market prices and trade flows.