20140924-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_925kb

报告摘要

Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 24 September 2014

Core Content Overview

This summary provides a snapshot of the regional oil and gas market, highlighting key price movements, export trends, and company-specific updates from various countries in Asia and beyond. It also includes analyst ratings and valuation metrics for major players in the sector.

Major Oil & Gas Prices and Indexes (as of 23 Sep 2014)

Product	Bloomberg Ticker	Units	Last Price	Dollar Chg. 1D	1D	1W	1M
Crude Oil (Brent)	COA COMDTY	USD/bbl.	96.75	-0.22	-0.2%	-2.3%	-6.1%
Crude Oil (WTI)	CLA COMDTY	USD/bbl.	91.56	0.69	0.8%	-2.4%	-1.7%
Dubai Fateh Spot	PGCRDUBA Index	USD/barrel	95.11	-0.20	-0.2%	-0.7%	-4.8%
China Daqing Spot	APCRDAQG Index	USD/barrel	93.96	-0.39	-0.4%	-0.6%	-5.0%
NYMEX Henry Hub	NGA COMDTY	USD/MMBtu	3.82	-0.03	-0.9%	-4.5%	-1.7%
LNG Northeast Asia CFR	JKMSGM1 Index	USD/MMBtu	15.85	-0.10	n/a	7.8%	32.1%
Singapore 92 RON Spot	MOGFM92S Index	USD/barrel	108.50	0.02	0.0%	-0.5%	-0.3%
Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot	GASL500P Index	USD/gallon	111.22	-0.29	-0.3%	-1.0%	-4.7%
3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot	N6SH180S Index	USD/mt	569.78	0.51	0.1%	0.2%	-3.4%
Gold	XAU CURNCY	USD/Oz	1,221.40	6.32	0.5%	-1.1%	-4.7%
USD-CNY	USDCNY CURNCY	Fx rate	6.14	-0.00	0.0%	-0.1%	-0.2%
DJI	INDU INDEX	Index	17,055.87	-116.81	-0.7%	-0.4%	0.3%
S&P 500	SPX INDEX	Index	1,982.77	-11.52	-0.6%	-0.8%	-0.3%

News Headlines

1. China's Diesel and Gasoline Export Trends

Diesel exports increased by 50% in the first 8 months of 2014, driven by weak domestic demand.
Gasoline exports dropped by 7.5%, as strong demand from passenger vehicles pushed car sales up by 11%.
Local inventory increased by 4.6% due to negative export margins.

2. China's Coal-to-Gas Target

China is projected to miss its coal-to-gas production target by as much as half.
Expected output is 4-6 BCM, compared to the 15-18 BCM target.
Delays are attributed to cost overruns and technical problems.

3. TOTAL's Non-US Dollar Financing

Due to Western sanctions, TOTAL has halted exploration in Eastern Siberia.
The company may seek non-US dollar loans for the Yamal project.
Partnered with OAO Novatek and CNPC.

4. INPEX Reserves Boost

INPEX plans to reinstall a compressor and separator at the Koshijihara plant.
Aims to increase reserves by 20% and extend field life by 20 years.
Also considering upgrading natural gas trunk pipelines.

5. China BlueChemical Loan

China BlueChemical receives a loan from CNOOC Leasing.
Collateral includes three production units.
The company faced CNY376m impairment losses and has not resumed production since 2010.

6. COSCO's Floating Accommodation Unit

COSCO Qidong Offshore Shipyard received an order to build a floating accommodation unit for a Singapore client.
Scheduled for delivery in 1Q17.
Contract value not disclosed.

Analyst Ratings and Valuation

China

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding: BUY, TP SGD1.38.
- Highest new orders YTD and largest order book in CGT.
Sinopec - H: HOLD, TP HKD6.65.
- Non-fuel division has potential, but profitability still depends on government policy.
CNOOC LTD: HOLD, TP HKD14.44.
- Non-fuel sales contribute less than 3% of EBIT.
China BlueChemical: Not Rated.

India

ONGC: Not Rated.
Reliance Industries: Not Rated.
Cairn India: BUY, TP INR443.00.
BPCL: Not Rated.
HPCL: Not Rated.

Japan

INPEX: Not Rated.
JAPEX: Not Rated.
JX Holding: Not Rated.
Showa Shell: Not Rated.
TonenGeneral: Not Rated.
Idemitsu: Not Rated.
Cosmo: Not Rated.

Malaysia

Gas Malaysia: HOLD, TP USD3.80.
Petronas Gas: HOLD, TP USD23.50.

Philippines

Petron Corp: BUY, TP PHP16.80.
Phoenix Petro: BUY, TP PHP7.05.

Taiwan

Formosa Petrochemical: Not Rated.

South Korea

S-OIL: Not Rated.
SK Innovation: Not Rated.
GS Holdings: Not Rated.

Vietnam

PetroVietnam Gas: BUY, TP VND103,000.
Other companies: Not Rated.

Global Oil & Gas

Exxon Mobil: Not Rated.
Chevron: Not Rated.
ConocoPhillips: Not Rated.
Shell: Not Rated.
BP plc: Not Rated.
Gasprom: Not Rated.
Rosneft Oil: Not Rated.
LUKOIL: Not Rated.
MOL Hunarian O&G: Not Rated.
Petroleo Brasileiro: Not Rated.
Total: Not Rated.
Eni S.p.A.: Not Rated.
Repsol S.A.: Not Rated.
Stateoil ASA: Not Rated.
OMV AG: Not Rated.
Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A.: Not Rated.

Valuation Comparison (Market Cap-Weighted Averages)

Asia Oil & Gas

P/E (X): 11.7 (2014E), 10.7 (2015E)
EV/EBITDA (X): 9.9 (2014E), 7.7 (2015E)
RoE %: 13.1 (2014E), 12.4 (2015E)
Yield %: 1.4 (2014E), 3.3 (2015E)

Asia Oil Service

P/E (X): 11.0 (2014E), 10.4 (2015E)
EV/EBITDA (X): 4.1 (2014E), 4.0 (2015E)
RoE %: 13.1 (2014E), 12.4 (2015E)
Yield %: 1.4 (2014E), 3.3 (2015E)

Key Points

Brent crude decreased by 0.2%, while gold rebounded from an 8-month low due to Middle East tensions.
China's diesel export surged, while gasoline export declined, reflecting domestic demand trends.
TOTAL faces sanctions and may seek non-US dollar financing for its Yamal project.
INPEX is taking steps to boost reserves and extend field life.
COSCO is building a floating accommodation unit for a Singapore client.
China BlueChemical is receiving a loan from its sister company.
Valuation metrics are provided for key players in Asia and global markets, with a focus on P/E, EV/EBITDA, RoE, and Yield.
Analyst ratings are given for various companies, with BUY, HOLD, and SELL designations.