20160808-新鸿基金融集团-INVESTMENT_DAILY_NOTE_15页_2mb

报告摘要

Investment Daily Note Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive summary of the Hong Kong and Chinese stock market conditions, focusing on indices, sector performance, individual stock highlights, and macroeconomic factors affecting the market.

Main Market Indices

Index	Close	Daily Change (%)	YTD Change (%)
Hang Seng Index (HSI)	22,146	1.4	1.1
HSCEI	9,132	1.4	(5.5)
Shanghai Composite	2,977	(0.2)	(15.9)
Shenzhen Composite	1,942	(0.4)	(15.9)

The Hang Seng Index and HSCEI both showed a positive daily change, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen Composites declined.
The HSI had a modest year-to-date increase, while the HSCEI faced a significant YTD decline.

External Market Conditions

The U.S. reported stronger-than-expected July jobs data, leading to a surge in U.S. stocks, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all hitting record highs.
ADRs (American Depositary Receipts) for Hong Kong stocks increased, contributing to a rise in the HSI.
Oil prices dipped slightly, while gold prices fell due to expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike.

Market Turnover and Performance

Hong Kong Market Turnover:
- HSI: HK$17.5bn (+8.87%)
- HSCCI: HK$3.4bn (-4.17%)
- HSCEI: HK$9.4bn (+25.00%)
- Main Board: HK$54.6bn (+1.84%)
Yesterday's Best Performing Stocks:
- Universal Health: 8.2%
- Kingsoft Corp: 7.7%
- Anta Sports: 7.5%
- Goldin Financial: 7.3%
- Renhe Commercial: 7.2%
Yesterday's Worst Performing Stocks:
- Wharf Holdings: -5.8%
- West China Cement: -5.8%
- Hang Lung Properties: -4.0%
- CLP Holdings: -3.7%
- Cathay Pacific: -3.5%

Stock in Focus: China Overseas (688.HK)

Last Close: HK$26.00
Entry: HK$25.60
Target: HK$28.50
Stop-loss: HK$24.30
YTD/1M/3M/12M % Change: -4.4% / 4.4% / 13.8% / 8.7%
Market Cap: HK$256.38bn
3M Average Daily Volume: 17.00mn shares
FY1 Forward P/E: 7.9
Performance Highlights:
- China Overseas reported strong sales growth with June property contract sales of RMB23.123bn, up 3.5% YoY and 34% MoM.
- Property sales for H1 reached RMB95.257bn, or 51% of the 2016 target.
- The company's land reserves in ten major cities expanded by about 2.1 times after acquiring CITIC Real Estate.
- It has a strong financial position with low net gearing (6.6% as of end-2015, expected to be below 40% post-acquisition).
- It is trading at a 16% discount to NAV and a forward P/E of 7.7x, below its five-year average of 8.5x.

Today's Top Picks

GT Group Hldg (263):
- Price: HK$0.37
- Target: HK$0.40
- Stop-loss: HK$0.35
- Reason: Price bottomed out, may place a small bet.
Sino Credit (628):
- Price: HK$1.21
- Target: HK$1.29
- Stop-loss: HK$1.14
- Reason: Share price rose above 100-day MA with a surge in turnover.

Sector Performance Overview

Sector	Daily Change (%)	5D Change (%)	1M Change (%)
Chinese Property	3.1	3.3	7.5
Automobile	2.1	0.6	15.9
Building Materials	2.1	1.3	9.1
Sports Accessories	2.0	2.4	14.7
Durable Consumables	1.9	5.3	12.8
Handset and Accessories	1.8	1.6	6.9
Chinese Insurers	1.7	-0.5	7.7
Other Metals	1.7	1.7	0.5
Gaming	1.7	-2.3	11.8
Local Property	1.6	-1.1	9.9
Technology	1.5	4.4	8.5
Chinese Telecoms	1.4	-0.5	8.1
Chinese Banks	1.4	1.3	7.2
Infrastructure	1.4	0.0	4.1
Consumer Staples	1.3	-0.4	0.2

Valuation Metrics

Index	FY16E P/E	Long-term Avg. Fwd. P/E	Deviation from Avg. (%)	FY1 EPS Growth (%)	FY2 EPS Growth (%)
Hang Seng Index	12.3	11.0	12.2	(8.2)	10.4
HSCEI	7.8	7.9	(0.9)	(8.5)	9.9
Shanghai Composite	13.8	10.7	28.6	19.1	12.8
S&P 500	18.5	15.3	21.2	10.6	13.0

Market Data and Short Selling

HSCI Volume Filter:
- Yanchang Petro: 2.5m shares, 1,038.4% increase in turnover
- China Evergrand: 21.6m shares, 334.8% increase in turnover
- Renhe Commercial: 32.6m shares, 289.7% increase in turnover
Most Short Sold Stocks:
- Espirit Hldgs (330.HK): 0.1% of total short sell turnover
- Li & Fung Ltd (494.HK): 0.3%
- Gome Electrical (493.HK): 0.4%
- Shangri-La Asia (69.HK): 0.0%
- TVB (511.HK): 0.1%
- China Pacific-H (2601.HK): 1.0%
- MTR Corp (66.HK): 1.0%
- YueXiu Transport (1052.HK): 0.1%
- Mengniu Dairy (2319.HK): 0.6%
- CITIC Bank-H (998.HK): 1.1%

A-share Premium to H-share

Company	H-share Price (HK$)	A-share Price (RMB)	A-share Premium (%)
LuoYang Glass-H	4.42	25.96	582.0
ZheJiang Shiba-H	9.11	30.87	293.5
ZTE-H	10.78	14.45	55.7
BBMG Corp-H	3.10	4.10	53.6
ShangHai Elect-H	3.23	8.09	190.8
China Vanke-H	18.90	20.95	28.7
China Life-H	17.72	20.57	34.8
Jiangxi Copper-H	9.17	14.62	85.1
Sinopec Oilfield-H	6.03	12.07	132.4

Key Economic Indicators

Interest Rates:
- U.S. 2-year Treasury yield: 0.7360% (+5.12bps)
- U.S. 10-year Treasury yield: 1.6058% (+8.44bps)
- U.S. 30-year Treasury yield: 2.3340% (+6.45bps)
- HK 1-month HIBOR: 0.2384% (-0.14bps)
- HK 3-month HIBOR: 0.5596% (+0.21bps)
- SH 1-month HIBOR: 2.7290% (-4.40bps)
- SH 3-month HIBOR: 2.8185% (-2.75bps)
Exchange Rates:
- USD/HKD: 7.7553 (+0.1%)
- USD/CNY: 6.6789 (-0.6%)
- USD/CNH: 6.6677 (-0.3%)
- EUR/USD: 1.1083 (-0.7%)
- USD/JPY: 102.14 (+0.2%)
- GBP/USD: 1.3081 (-0.7%)
- USD/CHF: 0.9809 (-1.3%)
- AUD/USD: 0.7605 (+0.9%)
- NZD/USD: 0.7118 (-0.8%)
- USD/CAD: 1.3185 (-0.5%)
- USD/CHF: 0.9809 (-1.3%)
Precious Metals and Commodities:
- Comex Gold: US$1,335.3 (-1.5%)
- Comex Silver: US$19.725 (-3.8%)
- Nymex WTI Crude: US$41.97 (+4.8%)
- ICE Brent Crude: US$44.38 (+5.3%)
- LME Copper: HK$4,789.00 (-2.8%)
- LME Aluminum: HK$1,645.00 (+0.1%)

Summary of Key Points

Market Sentiment: Positive due to the U.S. jobs report, which boosted investor confidence and potentially sent HK stocks higher.
China Overseas (688.HK): Strong sales growth and attractive valuation make it a key stock to watch.
Sector Performance: Chinese Property, Automobile, and Building Materials sectors performed well.
Valuation Metrics: HSI and HSCEI have lower P/E ratios than the S&P 500.
Turnover and Short Selling: Certain stocks showed significant volume increases and short selling activity.
A-share Premium: A significant premium exists for several companies listed on both A and H markets, indicating potential for value capture.